Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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OK, thanks. In trying to peek under the deep convection, I'm keeping my eyes focused on the north edge of the mass. I'm noticing that while it is moving northward, its beginning to nudge to the left, meaning a bit more toward the west. But you're right it is a judgement call right now, and the cloud tops have warmed a bit as its consolidating. The center is still in its formative stage. Just wondering if I should throw the outdoor chairs in the pool here in south Brevard County! This gal could blow up in a hurry if she stays over water another 36 hours! Cheers!! 
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Just a quick note and will post more later.....the center seems to continue to reform more to the NE of the previous position. Center seems to be near 25.4N and 76.7W. Movement erraticly off to the NW. Better consolidation now on the western side moving west. Nice banding to the E and SE. Open SW but should fill in later tonight. Still on projected forcast track though slightly faster over the past 24 hours. Expect a slowdown this evening to near 5mph and it cold even meander the next day or 2 before a migration off to the west or wsw late Thursday into Saturday. I will post a complete forcast track in a couple hours but its still pretty much the same. The new 12Z isnt too far off but maybe alittle to far east by 100 miles on days 4-5 over florida.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
seems pretty steady more west than northwest and... blow ups on all over in all areas
think that banding is slowly underway and this will be a very "pretty" storm just before landfall.. photogenic
however if it does slow down over warm temps all bets are off on how strong it is at landfall
lastly.. on and wv loop you can see top of storm is sort of flat as it expands in other directions
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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pocket of dry air visible on ramsdis just to east of the storm which is why it looks the way it does.. a spin there, maybe the original ULL that is now moving west towards florida
been battling that dry air though it's not a lot.. still it is there
only thing keeping it from being totally filled in and wrapped
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Quote:
blow up in a hurry if she stays over water another 36 hours! Cheers!!
It has a chance if it filters out the remaining dry air and that ULL completly goes away. I would not put the chances very high for this thing to hit hurricane status too long before landfall, though. So I doubt its going to have very long to blow up if its going to try.
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Even it reached hurricane status prior to making landfall, I would think the windfield would be relatively small and the storm surge minimal at best. It just doesn't have enough time to develop a big wall of water.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Current Radar Loop seems to show WNW to W movement.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Being an amateur my observations may be part of the learning curve but as I look at the different satellite loops, it appears to me that the ULL is pulling a piece of off with it while the main body of has moved very slowly to the WNW....???
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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the dry air has moved away... Everything is getting in place for the storm to strengthen, and the radar from Miami is showing a west movement.
If this is in fact the LLC, and if the upper winds are stacked on top of it.....and if the dry air is in fact moving away....
I think it is changing rapidly.
anyone know what the SST's are close to Miami...and then in the Gulf?
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Aug 24 2005 01:47 PM)
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Rick The temps I found from the bouy center were 87 and 88 degrees near Miami and 87/88 in the gulf right off of Floridas West coast. The link is provided.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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This is interesting, am I reading this correctly
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5af/fcst/archive/05082412/8.html
Look like the is picking up a low tomorrow and trailing Kat with it. If you look at the start time it's tomorrow. Is this what HF was talking about when he said to keep an eye on the storms south east of Kat?
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
the dry air has moved away from the hurricane. Everything is getting in place for the storm to strengthen, and the radar from Miami is showing a west movement.
The visible satellite loop shows that the center is still sliding a bit to the north of west. There is a burst of clouds that seems to be heading due west but the center (as I say particularly on the visible loop) seems not to have made as dramatic a turn, yet. Probably will soon. But I don't think it is moving west at the moment.
-- make landfall predictions in the forecast lounge. 
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Aug 24 2005 01:52 PM)
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
we are getting ready to see her explode...
I think it is changing rapidly.
anyone know what the SST's are close to Miami...and then in the Gulf?
You may be interested in this site, Rick. http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png
Take a look at that pot of warm water just off the west coast of FL.
-- let's let the Met's decide what will be a problem.
Fair enough Redington, though some already have.  Clark's current blog, "My intensity forecast in the Gulf is similar to the as it enters the Gulf, but I feel like the potential for the storm-relative shear to weaken as the storm begins to move northward plus the very warm waters will result in more intensification than forecast, to a strong category 1"
Edited by Big Red Machine (Wed Aug 24 2005 01:59 PM)
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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2:00 seems to be taking longer than normal. Are they waiting on Recon data? Has there been any data messages from this flight yet?
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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If tracks over Florida and into the Gulf what day are we looking at next week for a possible second landfall. Could this storm make it as far as Lousiana? Just wondering about a time frame.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.public.html
2pm is out
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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2:00 is out
Now 1003mb 45mph NNW 8mph Center reformed again.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It's not moving west best I can tell, after looking at the Radar from miami, you might think it. But comparing that to recon position updates, satellite, and just the fact that the range is a bit too far out on the radar to declare a center, I'd call it still northwest.
It's still a Tropical Storm, and I don't expect anything major out of it, here or if it makes it to the Gulf, right now. Northwest, to north northwest still.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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8am: 24.4N 76.6W
11am: 24.7N 76.7W
2pm: 25.2N 77.0W
Overall in 6 hours: .8 N .4W and it is still moving NW @ 8mph
So I wouldn't say it's started it's Westward movement just yet.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Seeing that the 2:00 advisory seems more of a relocation of the center versus actual movement, I have to wonder if this will cause some track adjustment to the right at 5:00PM. May have a minor effect on the model runs too. Boca to West Palm still looks like the likely landfall to me. No quibble with the on this though. These points are still well within the cone.
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Jim
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