ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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personally if they keep doing this it may not make the gulf as the has it not even making it there now. and a few others take it just a littl into the gulf.
I still don't think the models have a good handel on it yet till tonight maybe the 18Z or 00 runs.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Pam -
Can you please support w/ a graphic or link?:
Quote:
Also i just ran the models
and all of the golbals have moved east quite a bit from yesturday and
earlier today.
I'd be very interested in seeing that. Thanks!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The latest recon vortex message from a few minutes ago pegs the center around 25.6° N 76.9° W, which may be another reform to the north. Not sure what to make of that yet, I'll probably wait for another report.
So far, the track since this morning has done pretty good. Beyond 24 hours though the doubt still reigns supreme.
I haven't been talking about Gulf impact because I'm not so sure it'll make it that far, and it's pure speculation beyond 36-48 hours as it is.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
this is the model site
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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well lets hope it keeps reforming north each update and it will miss the whole east coast as if that is correct that is even more west then the update while more north.
One can hope, but not likely to miss the coast. 's track is already verifying at least in the short term. - Mike C.
Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 24 2005 03:59 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Mike,
I know you said you dont know what to make of the new location, but I wanna
try to make you... lol... doesnt this fit in with the globals moving slightly east. If the center keeps moving more north and east then the impact point would move the same, correct?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm impressed with 's satellite signature this afternoon. It's really starting to get that radiated/fanned look associated with the outer cloud pattern, as opposed to yesterday's somewhat restricted looking system.
At this point, I'd like to watch another few hours to determine exactly what direction is moving in.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Agree on the possibility of it not even making the Gulf. Many people seem overly worried about some huge increase in strength when it reaches the Gulf, but if it doesn't turn W or WNW it won't even make the Gulf. People along the east coast(even further north up on the east coast) need to be more worried right now. Let's see what happens at 5 p.m.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Mike:
Those coordinates appear to be the same as those in the 136 pm EDT vortex message, which I've pasted below. Presumably, the took that vortex message into consideration when issuing the 2 pm advisory (which really came out around 2, I believe). I realize it's odd that the did not peg the center at the same location as the vortex message, but unless you're referring to a different vortex message, I don't think it's another re-formation.
Do you have a later vortex message, or are you referring to the one I've pasted below?
URNT12 KNHC 241757
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/17:36:00Z
B. 25 deg 36 min N
076 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 264 deg 007 nm
F. 257 deg 033 kt
G. 179 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C/ 247 m
J. 25 C/ 245 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 0312A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 33 KT S QUAD 17:31:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Interesting to note that the NWS is currently forecasting gusts up to a possible 61 mph for St. Pete.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...8&map.y=156
I am curious to know if the model runs being discussed earlier were taken into consideration for this forecast.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Mike:
Those coordinates appear to be the same as those in the 136 pm EDT vortex message, which I've pasted below. Presumably, the took that vortex message into consideration when issuing the 2 pm advisory (which really came out around 2, I believe). I realize it's odd that the did not peg the center at the same location as the vortex message, but unless you're referring to a different vortex message, I don't think it's another re-formation.
Do you have a later vortex message, or are you referring to the one I've pasted below?
Brad that's the one, double checked it on the site here, the one I got had 18:36Z instead of 17, but may have been a conversion error. Thanks for pointing that out. I still want to see another recon report, though!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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i dont see how the NWS gets those winds here on the west coast unless this becomes a good cat 1 hurricane before landfall.Gusts to 64-65 would mean the system would have to hold a long time over land.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Agree on the possibility of it not even making the Gulf. Many people seem overly worried about some huge increase in strength when it reaches the Gulf, but if it doesn't turn W or WNW it won't even make the Gulf. People along the east coast(even further north up on the east coast) need to be more worried right now. Let's see what happens at 5 p.m.
I agree. The east coast is where the immediate impact will be. The best case for us west coast residents is if the storm stays inland or takes a like track north of TB, which is entirely possible. I just get a little concerned if the storm enters the GOM near Ft Meyers, tracks N-NW, then N. There would be plenty of warm water to go over to reintensify the storm, while hugging the coast. A worst case, probably unlikely, but has some model support now.
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RJB
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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latest votex i have is this:
pressure down?
open center of west side
URNT12 KNHC 241957
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/19:49:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
077 deg 05 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 44 deg 016 nm
F. 130 deg 039 kt
G. 43 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb Pressure
I. 23 C/ 247 m
J. 26 C/ 244 m
K. 26 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW-N
M. E09/8/5
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0312A OB 10
MAX FL WIND 45 KT E QUAD 18:49:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
also here's a great article that came out a few weeks ago.... NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCHERS GEARED UP FOR ANOTHER BUSY SEASON
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 24 2005 04:13 PM)
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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I can't read that. What is the pressure and location?
nevermind, I see it now
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Wed Aug 24 2005 04:11 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ok the new position is at 25.8°N 77.1°W and pressure is down 1mb. Not quite the reform like I mentioned, but the northerly component still dominates, despite the elongation to the east and west. It'll eventually turn, but probably more along the 's track. Radar is still playing tricks because of elongation.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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While the center has occasionally been reforming to the north, that is likely more a function of the internal reorganization of the storm, rather than the steering flow. In the last couple of hours, looking at the system as a whole, the motion appears to be towards the WNW.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Long range Miami radar loop showing a more WNW to W motion now.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Typed this before others answered wanna-be's questions. Didn't mean to duplicate others' posts.
That was 249 pm EDT. Pressure was 1002 mb, location approximately 25.7 (between 25.7 and 25.8) / just west of 77.1. I believe the "L" entry is the character of the eye--technically I think that suggests an open eye, although perhaps in this case just an open center of circulation? I assume there was some type of eye-type feature, because if there weren't then "L" would just contain "N/A" for not applicable.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Wed Aug 24 2005 04:18 PM)
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naples
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples, FL
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Yeah, I checked out the same thing for Naples. Not sure how this is possible unless it is a CAT 1. But Here's what they say about Naples. Friday Night: Rain and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Windy, with a north wind 52 to 55 mph becoming south 40 to 43 mph. Winds could gust as high as 83 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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