Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Come on Mommy !! You are on here every storm.. LOL.. Advise to Tampa Bay is keep an eye on this storm and stay vigilant !!! 
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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ok yea im on here every storm but i havent been on in a while and i seen a storm is out there so i thought id ask....sorry for asking
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Captain has turned on the seat belt sign!
Recon is now airborne out of Biloxi.
Should be about 90 minutes before they start their fix.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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What are the chances of this storm crossing the state, then out to the Gulf than back across the northern part of the state exiting around Jax? I saw this on some of the earlier model runs this afternoon. Also...did they shift the 2nd landfall a little to the right as of the 11pm advisory?
Also...are there any scenarios that would have just brushing the entire west coast of Florida before making the 2nd landfall?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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cant count that out yet but its a outliner due to its initial position of the system at 8am was west by 100 miles also it moves inland tomorrow afternoon moving wsw at 10mph,,,,I agree with its track but it will be slower,,and since its slower ,,, it would feel the trough come down later and move more along 83W.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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No one isn't talking about it...it's pretty much right down the middle and not far off of the model consensus. It's not an extreme solution, so it is going to get little publicity in an discussion, in the media, or on a message board such as this. It's simple, down the middle, and is probably very close to being right.
The link that someone posted earlier -- http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png -- currently shows a clustering of the best dynamical & statistical models available right near Apalachicola, FL. This is pretty consistent with the forecast, too, which shouldn't be a big surprise. Since 2001/2002, the and the have been the two best dynamical models...the GUNS/CONU consensus models have done even better...while the Superensemble has been the best overall for two years (timing issues excluded). The usually strays little from the Superensemble and the best models, and this is likely no exception.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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The Tampa area weather from will depend of course on how soon it makes it's turn to the North and if it is in the Gulf and how far out it gets. Obviously the closer it is to the West coast of Florida as it moves NW and then N, the more rain and wind you'll get in the Tampa Bay area.
Vigilance is not a bad thing to do. We're all watching and waiting to see what this tropical system will do.
I would at least take stock of your hurricane emergency items, water, food, batteries, medicines etc.
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Puig
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Miami, Fl.
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Just noticed on the last IR Loop that the center of the storm has taken a jog to the NW instead of due W. Also heard that this jog to the north is temporary and the center could just as easily jog to the south before making landfall. Whats your takeon this? By the looks of this jog to the north Palm Beach would certainly be closer to the center.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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I can agree with that but it also shows it coming ashore around the lake area and if it stays west like it is and goes across like the says then its south of the .
I think this track is going to change a few times like charlie did before it is done with.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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If she stays on the same track think St. Pete and Clearwater could see 50 to 60 MPH.
Dave
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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If I am reading that right, the new continues the persistence of the wsw movement but right into central Dade county near Coral Gables/Coconut Grove area?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well, it still looks like a landfall where I sit.The worse part will be not having power for a while,I am thinking a week.I base that on past storms that did not even hit here.All schools are closed Thur. and Fri.I saw a very long line at a gas station near work,there was even a fight that the police had to break up.The seems to be more sure of a hit here now.The big question is how strong will she be.I don't like the fact she will be over the gulf stream soon.I will try and give local conditions as long as I have power.Wish me luck.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I wouldn't be too concerned about any wobbles unless they persist for awhile. It may have taken a jog to the north briefly, but the last 30 minutes or so it appears to have resumed a westward motion on radar.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Don't be sorry for asking questions! We all know how fickle these storms can be. There are many factors that go into forecasting a storm, and this one is no exception!
Lake Toho is right: just stay vigilant and don't let your guard down until it's past us. If this storm continues to grow (did someone spray it with Miracle Grow or something?) in the next few days, we will most likely see some rain. Just keep tuning in and keeping an eye to the sky and an ear to the TV.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Latest Advisory: The National Weather Service has issued a hurricane warning for the southeastern Florida coast from Vero Beach south to Florida City. Well now it is offical.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I hope that you filled up your gas tank today, Bob. Even though I live on the other side of the coast, I did. I'm sure we won't suffer a direct hit right over our house, but I didn't want to take a chance on higher gas prices.
Good luck, Godspeed, and may the force be with you.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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latest recon... south of apalah....west of tamp....in GOM....be atleast an hour or so before vortex....got to cross state too..... 
URNT11 KNHC 250408
97779 04074 50276 85300 70100 08013 6475/ /5766
RMK AF300 0512A OB 02
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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GFS has finally come around. 00Z run shows the storm crossing the peninsula, then a second landfall in the general vicinity of Tampa.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_fpc.shtml
As out to lunch as the has been the past few days, I don't know what to make of this. However, as it falls in line with what some of the other models are showing, perhaps the NHS will make a slight track shift east @ 5?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Thank you Colleen.We are getting the first batch of heavy rain now.I think I have done all I can do for now.Some of my friends that live close to the beach got together tonight,and it ended with alot of good lucks and hugs.Now it is time to pray it does not get to strong.I am ready for here.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The is concern more why the model is not in line, not the , the is known to go right or left with each model run..
Dave
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