LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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coll
katrina is most definitely north of miami, still looks to be moving almost due west...at about 8 mph...she should landfall just south of west palm
is that thing I or thing II in your avatar? 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:16 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks like she is beginning to wrap around and fill in on the west side now. Believe it or not we are still in school until Noon today even though we have a Hurricane Warning and a storm less than 70 miles away. Bands are coming more frequently and more intense. A great radar site is to use the www.wunderground.com site and enter a city nearest the storm. You can then animate the radar and zoom in too. Looks like I will be in the front right quadrant as of now.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Truly an excellent discussion out of Tampa this morning. It appears that is moving just south of due west. Oddly enough, the farther south this make landfall, the worst it could be for Florida's west coast IF it turns north and closely hugs the coastline. It will mean less time over land, and more time over the warm Gulf waters. With a track farther west, the Panhandle has some serious trouble.
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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where is recon at. it looks like some rapid growth maybe on the way.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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LOL...that would be Lucy, AKA Thing 3.
If this is north of Miami already, would you expect a track shift at 11am? I also wonder what would happen if it crosses over Lake Okeechobee. The waters there have got to be like very warm bath waters. The funny thing is (well, it really isn't funny) that the NWS for Tampa have a doom and gloom situation if the storm stays SW of us. They are waiting for more info before putting up any flood watches, inland wind watches, etc. They're hoping to be able to decide on what to issue just in time for the evening news cycles. I find it simply amazing that this thing is only +/- 100 miles offshore and it's still such a large cone of error. The poor ...they all deserve raises! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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She does seem to be gaining strength,there is alot of wrap around.She is just about over the gulf stream,that IS were it would happen.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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naples
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples, FL
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I was wondering the same thing if she were to pass over the everglades, warm water, but not sure if that would have any effect.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Think she is intensifying now, at least the deep convection is growing around the center, and she maybe crawling now. Big problem I see is if she heads SW, stays mostly over water, crosses the keys, then heads NNE. Coming up the west coast and crossing the state towards JAX/Daytona would be terrible. and UK and allude to this Albeit farther north when crossing Florida from the GOM, but if she slows to a crawl, this scenario could shift east over time as the ridge moves into the SW Atlantic. Outside possibility, but not out of the question. Main deal is to see where she first makes landfall. Definitely think she'll land as Cat 1 though....bet she's near 55 knots now.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, I just updated the NWS loop from Miami....you can definitely see it's getting a little better organized; also, it DOES appear to be slipping a little south.
Also, I would like to pass along to Jim Cantore in Miami: you won't be dry for long. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Was on Channel 10 in Miami about 10 minutes or so ago. In it he talked about how the radar showed strengthening and they were waiting for recon confirmation. And he talked about how their is the distinct possibility of it stalling out within the next few hours and staying like that for a while.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Seems to be moving at a good clip now...and wsw too! Not looking good for Ft. Lauderdale if this continues. I am still at work and can't leave until 12pm! 
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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where are recon. she hasnt even hit gulfstream yet. and looks to be slowing, she may get even stronger than thought.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Just looked at those & with the estimated landfall approaching would hope those in the Keys are paying close attention.
Having been evacuated several times while down there, I know what a logistical nightmare it is...one day for tourists to leave while residents prepare, then next for residents to leave if needed.
If either one of those models pans out the call would need to be made soon...would be nasty to have to implement in those conditions on such short notice.
Edited by twizted sizter (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:45 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Wow...that's an ugly scenario. You can see it almost wrapping all the way around the center now. I can understand the stalling out as the steering currents are so light, and that would throw a whole new wrench into the forecast. AFLAC!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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is still a possibility...if it is slowing down...then change in direction often occurs..
I am thinking about a 90-100 mph cane...and then re-entering as a weak tropical storm.....might even kick down to a depression.....
then....up to a cat 3 or larger....and anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa will be under the gun...
too many uncertainties....this one is a very interesting storm....
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Recon will be in there with in the hour.It does look to be slowing down ,and that is a bad thing.They are saying now on tv that is COULD be a cat 2 if it slows.It would be worse for me if it went just south of here,as that would put us on the dirty side.Looking nasty outside and getting worse.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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anyone looked to what is south east of Kat ... alot of convections firing off there this morning .. ?? some one posted i think it was showing another system showing up behind the old girl Kat ... any mets or anyone esle have any ideas ... ?
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I will also say this, all the ingreadiants are coming together right now for a strengthening hurricane. Probally not picked up or ignored by some models, and thrown out by others. So here we are, with a huge error in size of landfall, yet the and models clearly show a really large storm, but downplayed by many. Go figure!!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Confirmed that right now, is moving southwest almost. On the recent tropical update he said this. Which doesn't bode well if it continues for us farther south, right?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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If you haven't looked at it in the last 20-30 mins, check out the IR loop. Very impressive bloom of storms: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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