OcalaKT
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
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http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
Link to five day forecast path. Still very wide cone, covering most of northern florida.
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schmoo
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
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Since people are talking about Elena, here's the track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/ELENA/track.gif
(purple = Cat 3)
eeeew..;i don't like elena
but looks like the panhandle is in sights again
sorry...shouldn't post without more informative info
won't do it again
Edited by schmoo (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:31 PM)
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jbmusic
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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Was Elana the one that just meandered in the gulf for several days?
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Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Sorry Ron I may have made an error putting in the url. You may need to copy and paste this.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-491-1125025748.gif
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I'm back...there has been a lot going on here professionally here at that has kept me from posting, but I am going to try to resume getting on here and seeing if I can add a little something to the already sterling discussions from the other mets on here.
Again, I apologize for my absence (not that I was missed much) and am glad to be home!
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Jason Kelley
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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WW@, the idea is that if moves out quick into the GOM off the SW Coast, it may get picked up and move back NE to Tampa then cut back across the state towards JAX. At least the right turn will happen, not a wide re-curve as the 18Z globals and 0z tropicals were showing. But its really all up in the air. Tomorrow MAY bring some clarity.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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What are the chances for this system to hook back to the NE if it slows down or if it gains speed.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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You know part of that convection has stayed put over the east coast, and there is now a large area, around Homestead, with 10 in of rain storm totals.
Also...does it look like that strong SE band is starting to drop SW and a little away from the center, as the storm loses strength and organization, and the COC is starting to go a little more W?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:43 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
I'm back...there has been a lot going on here professionally here at that has kept me from posting, but I am going to try to resume getting on here and seeing if I can add a little something to the already sterling discussions from the other mets on here.
Again, I apologize for my absence (not that I was missed much) and am glad to be home!
Will you add your thoughts to the post above who like a few other casters not mets but casters are thinking of a NE turn back to tampa.When i see 1 model out of 50 that even think anything near that.What are your thoughts.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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nice to have you back Jason... radar shows still moving off to the sw or wsw.... and getting close to the GOM... once in the GOM the has it tracking due west for a short period.. this will be interesting to see if it indeed behaves as they predict.... for what I can tell on radar she could be in the GOM in a couple of hours at the earliest....
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
You know part of that convection has stayed put over the east coast, and there is now a large area, around Homestead, with 10 of rain storm totals.
I'm seeing 1 or 2 pink pixels (12" rain totals) on this just landward of the coast. They are directly under the green of the Flood Warning. You might want to zoom to see them.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NTP_lp.shtml
Also, the eye is looking more ragged now. It is starting to fill in on the east side. If it holds out just a couple hours more it will still have a well defined eye moving into the gulf, but I'm not sure that will happen now.
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:40 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Welcome back, Jason!
I've posted the Thursday night update to my forecast in the Met blogs; also available on the front page below the main news item. It is largely an update of the Tuesday night forecast for intensity purposes and reflects a substantial shift upward in intensity at second landfall. I owe Jason some thanks for some collaboration earlier this evening -- unbeknownst to him, it helped my tennis game at the same time! -- and this is largely a reflection of his thinking as well (as far as I know).
This is going to be a long weekend, so stay tuned.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Yeah I thought that's where you were going with things...was kind of surprised she didn't get further south & I wonder if maybe more of a push east will happen now.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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its now only 16 miles away from the GOM, and is moving at least 8 mph, perhaps as much as 10.... certainly no slowdown is yet apparent
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Here in Atlanta for the first time that I can remember, all 4 TV mets are giving decidedly different forecasts, with either a track through central GA after 2nd landfall, but the met from Fox 5 talked about a landfall somewhere close to Pensacola as close to a Cat 3. If that's the case, that would be eeirly reminicent to the track that Cindy took, fooling everyone and tracking to the west and hammering Atlanta with tornadoes and a bunch of rain. Right now, I just dont know where or who to trust and the business I'm in (limousine industry) is dependant upon Hatsfield Airport staying open....So any guidance would be greatly helpful.
Also, How unusual is it for a hurricane to actually maintain or even gain strength while it is over land?
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:59 PM)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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My best advice is wait & see...that's what we're all doing.
As far as maintaining strength inland...well & Jeanne are prime examples from last year...not their original landfall strength but still hurricane status well inland.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Btw before i go to bed (and make many happy  ) how is this storm in size compared to charlie and francis seems smaller to me.
Anyway ill read when i get back from the store.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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You know all that convection that formed S of the keys has already started to be pulled into the feeder bands the last couple hours. I guess that is what is keeping the E coast so wet. It is taking longer for that convection on the east to slide across the state than the COC, but when it is all into the GOM, maybe in another six hours, then will be cooking.
Sheesh, looks like in another hour, the center'll start to be offshore.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Clark, very nice informative blog on the future of . It looks like you're pretty consistent with the . To me, the storm so far has been closely following the 18Z which this run overall is in line with your thoughts.
Being that the storm appears to be only a couple of hours from the GOM, and still at 70 mph, it seems likely that it will remain just below Hurricane strength & then have ample opportunity to start the development cycle again. It does look like some dry air has intruded into the north half of the storm, with very little rain from Alligator Alley northward, so perhaps its lost some steam. My main question is, I live on the Nature Coast about 50 miles north of St Pete - do u think there's much chance for to turn NE prior my latitude (28.5 N)?
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RJB
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