Huskerchaser
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
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Newbee here ... Looking at radar, the storm seems pretty stationary to me. I think with the slow movement of this storm ... these models will be swinging like a pendulum.
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I have it on good word that the 5PM track will be shifted 150 miles west to near Biloxi, MS. Possible CAT 4 at landfall.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Hank a ? I got to thinking about the vortex data. How is it possible the gradient increased to 8 deg with the eyewall still open?
in spite of sucking that dry stuff down, it still wants to intensify. if it stalls that'll mess the future track up, not to mention introduce the parameters for upwelling. those near shore-florida waters aren't very deep. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:37 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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may be responding to all that dry air intruding on the NW side. tropical systems with weak steering and that kind of forced asymmetry will do things like that sometimes.
HF 2034z26august
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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ETA or what is now called is your basic operational model. Usually it has fitful times dealing with tropical systems. In fact it's been all over the place for the last couple of days, not connecting mid-latitude weather with the tropics having it literally stall out in the GOM.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I read that also out of the Birmingham NWS" expect a significant westward shift at 5:00PM"
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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5PM STILL MOVING
Hurricane Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005
...Katrina continuing to move west-southwestward away from the
Florida Keys...
...Watches and warnings discontinued for Mainland Florida...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...all warnings and watches for peninsular
Florida have been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and
the Dry Tortugas.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane was located
near latitude 24.8 north... longitude 82.9 west or about 70
miles... west-northwest of Key West Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. This motion
is forecast to continue this evening...with a gradual turn toward
the west expected on Saturday.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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pressure down to 965mb, winds still at 100mph. haven't seen the forecast track yet.
HF 2040z26august
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I have it on good word that the 5PM track will be shifted 150 miles west to near Biloxi, MS. Possible CAT 4 at landfall.
That puts Jackson Cty right in the bulls-eye. There's no way they are preapred for that.
Glad it's not set in stone and just a possibility, albiet a more probable one.
Thanks for the heads up. Just left a msg to pass the word on to my brother at the sheriff's dept in Jackson Cty...imagine once their EMS gets the 5pm advis things will shift into high gear there. A Biloxi Cat 4 landing would cause most threat to Ocean Springs and Gautier, but all of Jackson Cty would have a big issue with flooding and getting everyone out in time.
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:47 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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based on radar....does look like she has slowed down to a crawl.... but in last few images...i think a more west movement has taken place.....would say she is moving less than 5kts now.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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THEY moved it to ALA this trend does not look good for the people in LA as it keeps going west.But as we all know it could shift back but the trend has been west.
Still moving but thank God its not went up in winds like some thought.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:45 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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New landfall point is now Southern Mobile County AL midafternoon Monday...more forthcoming...(per NWS Mobile)
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:43 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, it really doesn't look like it's moved at all. Maybe a smidgeon, but not much more than that. Also...have you noticed that since daybreak it's been "55 mile NE of Key West"; "50 miles N of Key West" now "45 WNW or WSW of Key West".
It may be stalling out, trying to decide where to go. And I'm not making any predictions, but if the models are right, looks like LA/MS are in big trouble.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as !
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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TDW
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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Not to wish bad on someone else, but maybe things will keep shifting west past AL.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hmm.. that's where i had it a couple of days ago, before switching to the panhandle. some times it pays to be stubborn, i guess. i'm guessing they have the first shortwave blowing by it, now? gotta go look at the models again, i reckon.
HF 2044z26august
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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At the site looks to Ocean springs are Goula.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150802.shtml?3day
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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that cone is pretty big still for only 3 days out .. wow
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That's what the concur's. The drifting south eastward really screwed up the track, now it's probably going to miss the intial connection. I knew something was kind of screwy a couple days back when they had it just accelerating right across the peninsula westward, when the main steering mechanism was becoming farther away.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:51 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 262050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/20:25:10Z
B. 24 deg 46 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2810 m
D. 55 kt
E. 318 deg 270 nm
F. 040 deg 069 kt
G. 311 deg 014 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3054 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/22/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A OB 28
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:52:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20C, 313 / 12NM
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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