Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
danielw wrote:
I know that there is at least one other fatality reported. But I'm not seeing any references here.
Here:
"a 79-year-old man died in a car crash during the storm in Cooper City" --BBC
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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The sat might look like it is moving slightly northerly, but that's just moisture wrapping around the system.
Take a look at the Miami radar - it is still going almost due west - perhaps if anything slightly south of due west. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0R_lp.shtml
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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If I had to pick a location right now 72hours out I probably pick poor Pensacola, which to me is unbelievable... I think the models will continue to shift ever so slightly to the west over time and if I was anywhere in the area from Pcola to PC I'd be in full hurricane preps by NLT this evening or early Sat....
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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The eye has reappeared over the last few frames of local radar. I will be watching today to see when the WNW component begins. I am thinking a small movement further west than forecasted would make a major difference in where ends up.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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97L isn't looking ny better today than yesterday, and mentioned that shear will inhibit development today, but it will relax again tomorrow. I wonder if it will ever form a system. It looked so good coming off Africa a week ago, but it never materialized.
The wave behind 97L is starting to get its act together, and the models are now showing it spinning out to sea and not getting very strong. Lets hope the models don't change again.
CMC is showing an interesting event occuring off the NC coast in about 2 days unrelated to . It is blowing up a strong circulation center and then dissipating it 2 days later. is also doing something off the NC coast in the same place. Wierd.
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Fatalities - They have just reported on the local news that so far three related to and they were because of a falling tree (with exception of the car crash but, that involved a tree too).
East Polk County - we got some rain here last night. Can't say how much for sure but it is very wet outside still. Bright and sunny this morning but I can see a band off to our South East coming in our direction. Not sure if it will even make it here or not.
Well, as glad as I am to see the track more to the West (once she is back in the GOM) I am sad to see that portions of the Panhandle are going to be faced with yet another storm. My heart breaks for them. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
Looks like the models think they have a good handle on the system now. We'll know in a few hours. It may be just a wobble or a reorganization, but the last couple of sat frames show a much more northernly component. I think it'll be until this afternoon before we have a solid idea of where she is going.
Sorry but you must be looking at a old map just got up and ran the last few hrs and noting near north as said west or even a little south.
check your map to make sure you get the right run.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Why is it that this latest interesting storm had to occur during the same week that classes started, I had an interview on the east coast, and a case of the stomach flu... I think I'm back to normal again, and ready to start obsessing about this storm.
I noticed the southernly component to last night's motion and assumed it would track the models west. That has happened, but there is still the forecast for a pretty quick turn to the north and then back east. I've looked at the water vapor, which usually helps me with projected path, but I'm not seeing it. Can someone explain why the models forecast such a dramatic turn in forward motion?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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There is model consensus on her coming in near the central panhandle, but don't bet the farm on it yet. Whoever get it may be a hurtin' pup. has another weird solution, taking her into the GOM, and developing a low near Andros island and taking it NNE through the Bahamas. Weird, probably spurious low, but it keeps popping up! Cheers!!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Well before i go there is a trof coming down that is due to pick it up lter today or tonight from the northwest.
Gonna turn north just when is all.Goodluck all today and God be with you and i do hope it stays away from spots it has hit before and also pray it does not get as bad as some think it may,
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
There is model consensus on her coming in near the central panhandle, but don't bet the farm on it yet. Whoever get it may be a hurtin' pup. has another weird solution, taking her into the GOM, and developing a low near Andros island and taking it NNE through the Bahamas. Weird, probably spurious low, but it keeps popping up! Cheers!!
Its not just that's doing strange things on the Atlantic side. Take a look at and also, but more north of the solution.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
I saw the same wobble. I cancelled my plans in Naples today as I don't trust this storm. If one of residents mets can check this, is it possible it has escaped the influence of the high pressure ridge thus the 3-5 mph forward speed? It sure does not appear to have anything steering it right now.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
I saw the same wobble. I cancelled my plans in Naples today as I don't trust this storm. If one of residents mets can check this, is it possible it has escaped the influence of the high pressure ridge thus the 3-5 mph forward speed? It sure does not appear to have anything steering it right now.
Again I will repeat:
Radar out of Miami shows no northward motion yet. I believe what you, and most other people, are picking up on IR/Water Vapor is the wrapping around of that large convection mass that formed over the Keys last night. It is merely an optical illusion at this point.
However! I don't trust the models either. There is no run-to-run consistency yet.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I am ready to move from this town if comes here. There won't be anything left to stay for!
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Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
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http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
I saw the same wobble. I cancelled my plans in Naples today as I don't trust this storm. If one of residents mets can check this, is it possible it has escaped the influence of the high pressure ridge thus the 3-5 mph forward speed? It sure does not appear to have anything steering it right now.
Again I will repeat:
Radar out of Miami shows no northward motion yet. I believe what you, and most other people, are picking up on IR/Water Vapor is the wrapping around of that large convection mass that formed over the Keys last night. It is merely an optical illusion at this point.
However! I don't trust the models either. There is no run-to-run consistency yet.
I was watching the radar from Key West earlier when I saw that. But I really don't trust the models. I'd like to see what is going on in the W and NW parts of the gulf regarding steering currents before I relax. This storm has taken everyone by suprise, especially the residents of Broward and Dade.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Experts when is this turn to the north supposed to start ? Will I know by tomorrow at noon if I should board up our beach house in Gulfshores AL?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Uh.
Turn north?
Today or tomorrow? 
I think we still have no real clue, though the models are predicting by sometime this afternoon.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
Again I will repeat:
Radar out of Miami shows no northward motion yet. I believe what you, and most other people, are picking up on IR/Water Vapor is the wrapping around of that large convection mass that formed over the Keys last night. It is merely an optical illusion at this point.
However! I don't trust the models either. There is no run-to-run consistency yet.
Agreed. Now that the eye is starting to reappear it does look like it was just wrapping itself up again. As I said, once she gets herself back together the picture should clarify.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Looking at the current radar loop she doesn't seem to be moving too much. I think she's trying to figure out where she wants to go.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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She is opening her eye now but who does she have her eye on
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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