javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Thats a 175mph on those flight winds.I was here during Camille now it looks like her sister is going to pay someone a visit.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Margie, regarding your quote, I would guess that CNN is rightfully not focused on the line, but the cone.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
That is really odd. I think that somebody is making a bad call in not ordering evacuations for NO. Here we are looking at one of the most dangerous weather features of our time and nobody is ordering evacuations.
They ARE ordering evacuations and people are heading out of town. The sad thing is there is no way to evacuate an entire major city. The smaller towns like Biloxi, MS were still debating mandatory evac's as late as this morning.
I think that even the Emergency Managers don't really understand this storm can and will do.
It's a logistical nightmare. I think that Radio and TV and sites like this one are doing all they can to warn people.
My prayers are for everyone to be safe in and around the Gulf Coast.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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If I had to guess what Dr Lyons is thinking, I'd say the vigorous trough diving SE thru central TX is gonna perhaps cause a slight, emphasize, slight N-NE turn, probably near the mouth of the Miss River. This is probably what the 06Z model is picking up on and maybe this will introduce some shear and slightly weaken KAT. Who knows? What I've been saying is anyone from LA to the western panhandle needs to take this seriously, becuz its such a large storm.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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What do you think the odds are that the track might shift East?? 48hrs seems a little stretched for Cat V winds... I would think that it would go under Cat V strength within an hour or two (of course depending on how strong it is when it comes ashore).
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Matt
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
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Seeing that it went just east of the last forcast point on the wv image, and the angle that it looks like it will hit the next forcast point head on.....does anyone think this is a slight adjustment to the west of the forcast track?
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.
Thanks,
ED
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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If hits NO, it will have no companion in history that I'm aware of.
NO has never been hit by a storm this large - almost nobody has (Camille is rightfully mentioned as an analogy). To anyone focusing only on the forecast track: please do not be so foolish! This storm is HUGE and will cause large swaths of devastation spanning dozens of miles!
Katrina means business, and is large enough to cause problems hundres of miles from her landfall "point". A storm of this size is going to pound cities more than 50 miles from any point listed as landfall, and if that point is in LA, then yes, even folks in the panhandle of Florida need to rush to completion any plans for safety.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't exactly a storm to ride out or dismiss - she spans hundreds of miles and will continue to deepen for a while. The line between 155 (Cat 4) and 156 (Cat 5) at landfall will make little difference. She's gusting over 180 mph. My car will push 160 and let me tell you - the sheer force of a 180+ mph gust is definitely something that reeks power.
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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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New to posting on this site (although I have been a non-registered user for a while now), but wanted to say that even if there are no official evacuations anyone in 's path that doesn't heed the warning is going to get a close-up of the gates of hell. I experienced Camille from the Tampa area in '69 and it was scary enough long distance. Does anyone remember the news story about the woman who was at a "hurricane party" in her 4th floor apartment and was swept out to sea by the storm surge? She was one of the lucky ones and lived to talk about her experience! Riding this one out is just foolish! If remains a 5 when making landfall, it will be only the 5th Atlantic Cat 5 to make landfall since record keeping began (and the 4th to hit US l).
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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No, I don't buy it. Landfall is in LA according to predictions (see below).
And news stories on the web always lead with the new info, then repeat the older paragraphs, appending them.
So that statement referencing MS landfall reflects something different than the current projected path.
This was from 10am Sat discussion:
"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR."
From the 5pm Sat discussion:
"THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR."
From 8am this morning:
"NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK...HAVE BEEN MADE."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Any of our 'Bama friends on here tune into your local radio/tv or even ...just heard they now have evacs for areas there.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Guys and gals, she's RIGHT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.
There were two vortex fixes just north of track, but the trend is right on the line. Last fix was slightly WEST of the forecast track.
Don't fixate on the exact center - with a 30nm diameter eye, being off 30nm won't help you a bit!
Dr. Lyons has a point, BUT that trough is not very vigorous down there. Look at the weather maps and WV loops - the strength in that trough IS lifting out NE, as was forecast. Look at the forecast maps for the next 24 hours; there's a pronounced weakness right north of NO - which is exactly where the has forecast the storm to head.
Whether it jogs east or west of there a bit is not going to be material with a storm of this size and power, and betting on an east - or west - wobble or jog in the path is VERY ill-advised.
I'm expecting near-hurricane-force winds here in Niceville, and a tidal surge of somewhere around 4' in the bay - 6-10' directly on the gulf. Add to that wave impact, which will be considerable for gulf-front exposures.
Please do not be complacent or think that someone's projections of a slight eastward change in track means you're "ok" if you're on the western edge of the envelope! By the same token this storm could be trouble all the way over to Destin - you can bet I'm watching it VERY closely, as that's where we are!
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
To anyone focusing only on the forecast track: please do not be so foolish! This storm is HUGE and will cause large swaths of devastation spanning dozens of miles!
I know what you mean. Look At . It was powerful, but small, and it did alot of destructi spanning hundreds of miles. is huge.
Also the mayor of N.O is holding a news conference right now. I caught it on AM radio.
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Matt
Edited by chase 22 (Sun Aug 28 2005 10:06 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Margie, I disagree that before 9:30AM the specifically called CNN (and no one else) or that CNN is the only news outlet to find out that the forecast track would shift East. Yes the track may shift East (or even West) but I think you're digging for something that doesn't exist. I stand with my assessment of the CNN quote - they are focused on the cone, not the line.
EDIT: or the Chief Met for CNN is making a call to shift the track slightly East.
2nd EDIT: based on your new post below, that met was on NBC this AM and I think he's giving the cone vs line "be safe" speech.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Looks like the eye is forming vortices.
This phenomena observed in Isabel.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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To give distance perspective to the east of this storm, as it is now. When Camille hit in 1969, I was living in Marianna Florida which is approximately 138 car miles from Pensacola to the east. We had tropcial storm force winds all night long the night or day she hit. I awoke to large pine tree limbs down, debris everywhere. We may or may not have had a close brush with a tornado. I was a teenager and television weather reporting was not a media focus and not a lot of communication was going on. I do remember that there was some coverage though but it seemed alot more remote in those days. So the moral of this story is that if this remains a CAT 5 at landfall, It will cause problems from the landfall for hundreds of miles in all directions.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I found the source at another news site. It is a direct quote from someone at , apparently from this morning, so in this context it is not clear if this leads up to an official change in the predicted path:
"Katrina’s landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami."
No, and something's got to be up anyway; she's been moving in a straight line, NW, for some time now.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun Aug 28 2005 10:18 AM)
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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You guys amaze me with each passing storm. I read many predictions last night and woke up to see quite a few of them had developed. My thoughts and prayers are with every person who will experience anything to do with this big girl. Stay smart and err on the side of caution.
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
Any of our 'Bama friends on here tune into your local radio/tv or even ...just heard they now have evacs for areas there.
I'm listening to the local news stations now. No order for evacuation yet. For that matter, Mobile County schools have not even been cancelled !!! I'm sure they will be after the next update.  I think they are trying not to repeat the panic they had here for the last storm that didn't have anywhere near the impact they had hyped it up to be. Personally, I feel they are being too lenient this time and people will try to from flee here at the last minute.
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