MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Last hour or so KAT has moved N-NW - it may be a wobble but its nail biting time watching every radar & SAT image.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
Katrina is right on, or maybe just a tad west of the official track. This is about right.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Visible and IR Floater appears to show a slight northerly vecot componenet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Put the IR Loop with Tropical Forecast points. It looks like it is tracking right on the mark
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:25 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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JYarsh
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Virginia Beach, VA
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In the last few frames, it looks like has made the turn to the north, or at least north-northwest. Its staying right on track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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looks like were about 88.9 and 26.7 on the long range base loop. a little west indeed.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The storm is steered by a deep-layer flow through the entire atmosphere and surface frictional effects will have little impact on a storm this intense. As it weakens after landfall, the lower-level winds will take over to a greater degree in steering the storm, but that's a different matter than frictional effects along the coastline.
The greater effects from friction will be the potential for tornadoes to the right of the storm track at landfall. The potential is there for a similar scenario tornado-wise as seen with , just likely a bit further west in the western Fl. Panhandle and Alabama.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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the picture says 902 words.
it will be very interesting to see what plays out.
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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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Quote:
My current landfall window continues at Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.
I'm now hearing of some mandatory evacuations being ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may be averted. If were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.
Bullseye along the AL/FL border???? Hrmmmmm, do you have an enemy in the Florida Panhandle you are trying to scare?
VG, i think you need to explain a bit more about your theory as it contradicts every model, met i've heard thus far. Otherwise i think his post and this one (mine) should be deleted. Another reason being, the bullseye hitting Mobile/Pcola would basically be a close call for N.O. which unfortunately isn't going to be the case.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Long range radar loop out of NO shows a NNW track but not a great deal of movement. I may be wrong but it looks to be slowing down. This would be a very bad scenario. We are already flooding in NW Florida.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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It looks like she is tracking just a few miles West of the forecast track. This is all very bad for NO.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Here is where Thomas posted his forecast and reasoning. He also posted it on this board a day or so ago. It may not come to fruition but it is based on expert knowledge and experience. Mr Giella credentials are very good.
Weather Forecasting Blog For Retired Meteorologist Thomas Giella
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Jara
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Edited by stormchazer (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:50 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The 17:00 EDT is out:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?id=42602
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:53 PM)
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TDW
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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Looks like winds are down to 165 mph, not but much better, but it may be the start of something good - relativelt speaking.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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I'm just saying that if someone were stupid enough to think of VG as the final authority on these things (which is doubtful), and they live in N.O., they might be inclined to ride it out.
Not a good thing, IMHO.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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I just saw a projection that still predicts to hit land at a CAT 4.. With the wind decrese, we can only pray.
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Unfortunately, Cat 5 storms, and especially annular storms, fluctuate quite a bit in terms of windspeed, and since the pressure has continued to drop, I would say that weakening has not occured.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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It's too late for anyone still in NO to try to leave now...curfew will be in effect soon & I believe contraflow is stopped already..interstate still looks packed...public trans will shut down.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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VG isn't the final authority, but he used to do this for a living, you know? I think a little more respect to someone who gave us fantastic service might be in order.
That being said, he disclaims his lack of immersion nowadays, and nothing he says should give anyone in NO an excuse to be drinking on Bourbon St. instead of running for their safety.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Look at this track and its relationship to Lake Poncitrain (sp?):
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
Again, if she stays just east of Poncitrain, it is the worst case sceanrio due to the northerly winds dumping the lake into the city.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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New thread up on the main board.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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