CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Scott,
Looks like the mets at NWS in Ruskin (West Central Florida) agree with you per their 1:30 PM discussion. IMO, they're the best NWS site in Florida in their presentation and documentation. Link's on the main page under Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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so does that mean that Tampa and west central florida are pretty much all clear with ophelia?
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Maybe this will help.... info on advisories.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/help/tcp.shtml?NEXTADV#REPEAT
scroll to the bottom.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i really hope she doesnt follow the spaghetti model plots for A98E, BAMD, and BAMM...becuase that could mean some problems for us up here in the NE..MID-ATL. region.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Not so sure about the Ruskin thinking. The newest models tend to be more north and east. Wouldn't be surprised if the track is adjusted accordingly at 5.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL162005
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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Quote:
I see at the bottom of the 11am it says next one at 5pm....what happened to the interim 2pm?
Might not be doing the supplemental update because the cyclone is not an imminent (sp) threat to land.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
i really hope she doesnt follow the spaghetti model plots for A98E, BAMD, and BAMM...becuase that could mean some problems for us up here in the NE..MID-ATL. region.
i meant to put what do people think of this, like can it happen...and also...LBAR model looks good..haha out to sea pleaseee
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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The last few frames of both the IR loop from the and also the IR loop out of Melbourne suggest a SE component to Ophelia's driftt. This is especially interesting when you watch the water vapor imagery from the because it sure seems like she is getting pushed SE. Granted, its only a few frames. Still, hoping this is not the loop beginning already!
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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Am I seeing some impressive images from the satellite with this storm? Seems to me like there is some impressive convection popping south of the COC. Is it almost wrapped around the center now? Is this thing back to hurricane strength? Also, is it just me, or is it STILL moving slower and less decisively than forecast?
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Was just going to post that...seems to struggle to get past 30...maybe underestimating the force of that ridge?See if it persists I guess.
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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Quote:
The last few frames of both the IR loop from the and also the IR loop out of Melbourne suggest a SE component to Ophelia's driftt. This is especially interesting when you watch the water vapor imagery from the because it sure seems like she is getting pushed SE. Granted, its only a few frames. Still, hoping this is not the loop beginning already!
I think what you are seeing is an increase in convection to the south. I believe, but am not totally sure, that the center is still moving SLOWLY to the ENE right now.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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I think what you are seeing is an increase in convection to the south. I believe, but am not totally sure, that the center is still moving SLOWLY to the ENE right now.
You might be right but look at the Melbourne radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
I dunno, looks at least E if not ESE. Not seeing the Northward movement. At least not yet.
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Adam
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
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Quote:
Quote:
The last few frames of both the IR loop from the and also the IR loop out of Melbourne suggest a SE component to Ophelia's driftt. This is especially interesting when you watch the water vapor imagery from the because it sure seems like she is getting pushed SE. Granted, its only a few frames. Still, hoping this is not the loop beginning already!
I think what you are seeing is an increase in convection to the south. I believe, but am not totally sure, that the center is still moving SLOWLY to the ENE right now.
I agree she is really looking impressive, I think the convection on the S side of the storm gives the illusion of a SE drift, but she is still moving sloowww, cant figure out why all the models have been moving further east and north all day, guess we will see.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i agree there maybe be a little east movement.... maybe a slight SE step.... i how ever think that the turn may be sooner than forecasted.... look at this WV loop and notice the Dry air build up over Kent.-Tenn... thats pushing SE towards Ophelia.... i think she may move more east and maybe a little south... well see...
*also look how far that dry air got into the GOM off the panhandle of Fla...hmm...
Water Vapor
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Adam
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
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after looking at the long range rader i think there is some validity to a slight E maybe even ESE movement.
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Ed,
I think CoalCracker is making his point that the models don't have the best handle on things, so he understands the models have been trending north and east but still thinks this in spite of what the models show. From what I've heard, it's the too fast NNE movement they are relying on that makes it trends up to SC, NC, etc. I'm thinking Georgia, probably GA/FL border about 31N.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
i agree there maybe be a little east movement.... maybe a slight SE step.... i how ever think that the turn may be sooner than forecasted.... look at this WV loop and notice the Dry air build up over Kent.-Tenn... thats pushing SE towards Ophelia.... i think she may move more east and maybe a little south... well see...
*also look how far that dry air got into the GOM off the panhandle of Fla...hmm...
Water Vapor
Hard to tell right yet. But, having watched her on the Melbourne site for two days straight, this is the most consistent display of movement I've seen in 72 hours.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Someone tell me what it means if she's going ESE...LOL! She's still on the Melb radar. Waaaaayyy too close to be doing anything goofy now. Also, while checking the wv loop I noticed that swirl going towards the bahamas. That's nothing right? Ok, I think total paranoia has set in...LOL!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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Quote:
Someone tell me what it means if she's going ESE...LOL! She's still on the Melb radar. Waaaaayyy too close to be doing anything goofy now. Also, while checking the wv loop I noticed that swirl going towards the bahamas. That's nothing right? Ok, I think total paranoia has set in...LOL!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
This is a total guess (I am in no way a Wx), but that could just be standard afternoon thunderstorm activity. However, it could also be feeder bands wrapping around the storm more to the south. If it organizes itself with all it currently has to work with I think it could be a nice sized storm. The shear is still present, but I think the storm itself is growing in size, if not strength.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Been watching Ophelia all morning, and she's definitely north and east of where she was early this morning(looks a bit more east than north though). At first she didn't seem to be moving that fast, but appears to me, based on the sats/charts I've looked at, that she's picked up just a bit more speed in the recent hours. Now we'll just be watching to see where the loop begins.
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Check the Surf
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