The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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But the sad part is, that there is still over 2 months to go to this season. Greek letters soon to follow.
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JYarsh
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Virginia Beach, VA
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has anyone else noticed a northward jog in the last few hours? I would just say just a jog but its been going on for quite some time now...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Here's some interesting stories that are developing in and around Houston....
-- Mandatory evacuation in effect not only for coastal residents, but also for those in flood-prone areas of Houston -- around the bayous, etc.
-- Evacuees leaving Galveston and traveling north toward Dallas are being told to expect at least a 12 hour commute just to get out of the northern Houston suburbs!
-- The "One Country Hurricane Benefit Concert" has been cancelled.
-- Officials in Matagorda County have told residents with children who refuse to obey the mandatory evacuation order that Children's Protective Services will take their children and the parents will be prosecuted....
-- Johnson Space Center closed today at 1PM... local refineries also shutting down.
-- evacuees from the Astrodome and Reliant Stadium are being flown to Fort Chaffee, Arkansa, and other locations.
Local news outlets:
CBS -- www.khou.com (Dr. Neil Frank's station)
NBC -- www.kprc.com
ABC -- www.ktrk.com
Also:
houstontranstar.org -- click on "Real Time Traffic Map" then "Camera List" and you can see live shots from all over the city, including the Galveston Island Causeway, etc.
I'm hearing a wide variety of responses to the storm... relatives near the coast have already evacuated (thank goodness)...
relatives near the bayous are also leaving...
my parents in far west Houston are staying, even though they are about 30 miles from where the center is expected to pass...
as far as other friends in areas well-inland -- all but a few are staying (the most amusing explanation I heard from an evacuating friend is that, the power might go out, and she "doesn't like to sweat...") 
Allison
Edited by Allison (Wed Sep 21 2005 03:45 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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not sure, but looks like there are two AF planes out there... AF300... and AF306.... but have awhile til they have to depart.... and NOAA9 and NOAA3 are still up.... so tonights models runs should have much stock in them.....i also think i saw where there is a Navy Plane up.... helping to feed real time data from the planes back to /HRD/NOAA....
**ALSO I THINK I JUST SAW A 908MB READING**** NOT SURE BUT WILL CHECK
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:01 PM)
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cmiller324
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
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Quote:
Hi!
I am a new user and I have been looking for a site like this since last year.. I am so happy to find it. I live in St. Petersburg, FL .
I was wondering if someone could post a link to a site that would allow you to see the acctual ridge of high pressure ( if there is such a site), I also see the wobble and just wanted to see this high pressure area. I look at Accuweather and NOAA, but Accuweather is not always updated with their sattelite photos. Thanks everyone!
Sincerely, Christine
You can use this link Clicky .
The bright orange is dry air or high pressure. Greens are moisture. If I am wrong would someone please clarify.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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"Officials in Matagorda County have told residents with children who refuse to obey the mandatory evacuation order that Children's Protective Services will take their children and the parents will be prosecuted...."
God Bless Texas! I love that state!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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also based on the sats.... i noticed it looks like the center.... low level is cloud free....the stadium should amazing if your flying through right now.... so i would expect to see some pictures in the coming days atleast from HRD..... i have a feeling that an in going to start within the next 12hrs or so....
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg
Cloud free surface in Center? (it could just be the sun glare too!)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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If you look at that SAT, and plot the forecast track, I can see a definate swing to the right in the last couple of frames. Clark, how about it. What would you say, trend or wobble, considering that maybe breaking through the ridge to the East.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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FOR 2 1/2 HOURS...ever since she cleaned up the eyewall, a definite wnw direction.....I don't think this is a wobble....
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I am not an expert but this is the site I use, I use the 700-850 layer, you can adjust in 3 hour increments and there are even more options on the home page.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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A recent dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 149 knot winds at the surface and a mean boundary layer wind of 165 knots. The next dropsonde in the eye reported a pressure of 908 mb with surface winds of 28 knots, indicating the actual central pressure may be slightly lower.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I definitley agree on beginning soon. When you get "stadium" effect and the eye tightens it seems the the "top" of the stadium becomes the edge of the outer eyewall that forms. It seems as the slant on the stadium effect becomes more pronounced the closer you come to . Once again...I could be wrong...just an observation as not much is know about triggers.
Also...definite WNW movement and it doesn't seem like a wobble. The motion seems rather clean and not jerky like a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Click on the "lat/lon" box on top of the loop...makes it easy to see
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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It's not a wobble, you can see it clearly starting to curve north...
Here's another link:
Water Vapour Link Showing N-N-W Curve.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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WOW! Thanks..
Thats just what I was looking for!
Does it look like the ridge is weakening or maybe has not shifted to the East as expected. I myself am NO expert, but very interested in learning!
Thanks everyone!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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If this isn't a cat 5 storm by now, it has to be the deepest category 4 storm in history.
A WNW movement was anticipated and the current movement is only slightly more northerly than the official track suggests, so nobody needs to panic any time soon.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
"Officials in Matagorda County have told residents with children who refuse to obey the mandatory evacuation order that Children's Protective Services will take their children and the parents will be prosecuted...."
God Bless Texas! I love that state!
This is actually the first real test of Texas' new mandatory evacuation law -- we didn't have one until a few months ago.... before that, officials could legally only "recommend" evacuations...
The practical effect isn't much different, I'm afraid -- it's unlikely they're going to force people out -- but the language itself should provide the necessary encouragement.... 
Allison
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Allison
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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So I guess what Rick and I saw @ 12:30 today was not a wobble/jog but apparently a trend since it is now 4:00. Would still like to know what a Met/Prof think of the Ridge right now
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Watching Fox...just said they heard from ...she's a 5 now...165.
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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
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000
WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
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StormKrone
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 34
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Quote:
A recent dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 149 knot winds at the surface and a mean boundary layer wind of 165 knots.
This is what I am hearing also... 165 mph...
what a dame!! or _itch!!! <g> (sorry mods)
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