Texascoast
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
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Thunderbird thanks for your response. But this is more than just a JOG to the left woudnt you say? Would that eddy area be rotating clockwise like a little wheel out there and reacted to it . Just a thought.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
looks like she's starving for warm water. I bet this will change quite a bit over the next 12 hours.
Looks on water vapor loop like she's actually tracking slightly south of due west temporarily.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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west brings her closer to warm water which is centered at about 26.5N 91.8W
it's almost like she knows it's there.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Thunderbird thanks for your response. But this is more than just a JOG to the left woudnt you say? Would that eddy area be rotating clockwise like a little wheel out there and reacted to it . Just a thought.
No she's still stairstepping along the ridge of high pressure.
EDIT -- It's an understandable assumption. When I first started doing this a couple of months ago I wondered if water temps could be a factor in steering hurricanes. They are not. Hurricanes are steered by the atmosphere, and by different levels of the atmosphere when they are at different intensities.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 22 2005 09:42 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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this is a substantial jog west. Earlier today someone complained about Corpus Christi, 200 miles south of the track, being evacuated....still second guessing....welcome to the world of hurricanes!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
Thunderbird thanks for your response. But this is more than just a JOG to the left woudnt you say? Would that eddy area be rotating clockwise like a little wheel out there and reacted to it . Just a thought.
No she's still stairstepping along the ridge of high pressure.
I agree with this "stairstepping..." It is too early to tell. She's humming along toward the WNW at a super incredibly fast forward speed of 10mph.. Right.
In other words, like all cyclones she's liable to behave eradically at slower translational velocities.
If anyone is interested:
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Chad Myers talking about last 4 frames and the West move. Sam Champion calling it a wobble and refering to the warmer Eddy
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Thu Sep 22 2005 09:33 PM)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I believe that when gets over that warm eddy, and tracks through it, I'm anticipating over CAT 5 once again. Maybe pushing 160MPH. But it will not last, a truly highend CAT 4 upon landfall along HOU/GAL coast and perhaps a little further north.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just saw on CNN the latest sat and it looks like a hard left turn to the west...what in the world is going on?????
The mayor of Houston said for any residents of non-threatened areas to stay home and not evacuate.....
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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What area would be called a Non-Life Threatening area? Have they gone mad?
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modeleste
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
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Quote:
Just saw on CNN the latest sat and it looks like a hard left turn to the west...what in the world is going on?????
The playful god said, "man it's fun keeping 'em guessing"
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I don't know what Larry King was talking about, but he popped that in with the Chad Meyers and the move to the left.
Chad Champion of Accuweather is talking about 30" of rain in Northeast Texas.
Also, the new tracks once the storm makes landfall are just crazy, but one brings and her remnants smack dab right over Atlanta...How reliable is that track?
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Texascoast
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
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Stairstepping HUMM dont stairs go up one and to the side one and so on&so on. has not taking a step up in a wile is this unusual or the norm?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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GFS, have it hitting the same area with a combo punch, has it over the same general area for about 60 hours
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Don't buy it. I think that will eventually stall over TX/AR/OK area for at least 3-4 days. So a rainfall over 20 inches is not out of the question.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Deep purples are now entrained into once again, an indication that the cloud tops are cooling at a rapid pace.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
089 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 916 mb
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 01 OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARED CLOSED
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Per a brief conversation with Mike C, we're about to see what happens when a mostly troll-free Fark thread links here. Fortunately, it's late in the thread so most of the folks there are
A) all curious about storms
B) all pretty civil
C) not there solely to flame/cause headaches
D) a smaller quantity than a "true" Farking usually delivers.
In short, expect an influx of new users who should be good additions.
*crosses fingers*
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
What area would be called a Non-Life Threatening area? Have they gone mad?
The area that is non-life threatening would be Arizona or New Mexico.
Seriously, if you live in the cone - or even near the fringes - on the coast or near it in a flood zone, GET OUT!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It would be unusual for a storm like this to not wander around on its track. These are very large and extemely complex systems. Someone on this board has a statement in their signature that talks about storms dancing on satellite. That is the best way to think of it. A storm is not marching in a straight line with a specific destination. It dances around a general direction and wanders here and there along the way. That is why the doesn't make major changes in the forecasted track based on a jog here or a jog there. You will also notice that all the posts on this board like "Oh my God it jogged North, it is going to hit *important city*" are posts by relative newcomers to this site. Those of us that have been hanging around here awhile have come to understand that the little changes don't matter. Take a break, take a nap, get a good night's sleep. The little changes don't matter.
Bill
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