k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Good point...however, the official record is just that...the official record.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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I am not liking the 18Z  - kinda of a worst-case scenario with landfall near Sarasota 8 AM Sat morning at 125 mph with the storm moving near 18 mph to the NE roughly along I-4 to Daytona Beach. Add the 18 mph forward speed to the 125 mph gives you - well u know what it gives u. This storm could surprise alot of people - if it speeds up like the shows. I'm not sure I buy the intensity over slighly cooler GOM water (81-82 deg) along with some added shear but could be CAT 2 or weak CAT 3. In any case, much damage to coastal communities and even inland at that fast forward speed (i.e. won't weaken as fast, similar to but much bigger storm).
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Probably not much with this system cause its main steering flow will be from the strong trough of low pressure over the U.S., but it will fly thru the GULF and NW Carribean to see how much of the ridge is intact and/or weakening then what is believed in the models.... another words that data will go into the models and it could help the short term movement of Weds and Thurs before the main trough comes in to push it more rapidly NE friday into saturday.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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It's difficult to tell if there is any movement right now or not, since the VIS images are no longer available. This is still a tropical storm, so it isn't necessarily a given that the center is anchored in the middle of the convection. In the last hour, it seems to have shrugged off some old convection to the west and redeveloped new convection near the last center fix, so it still may not be moving much at all.
As far as possible intensity for a Florida landfall, the best rule of thumb right now would probably be to expect a system one category less intense than whatever it maxes out as (if it maxes out as cat 4, expect cat 3, maxes out at cat 3, expect cat 2, etc.). There is still some uncertainty there, though... it remains to be seen exactly how much shear will materialize in the Gulf in the path of the storm, assuming it gets there in the first place. Increasing SW flow aloft will not necessarily result in rapidly increasing shear if the storm quickly turns to the NE. The 18Z run weakens as it passes over western Cuba, but does not weaken it much at all affer that over the Gulf until landfall.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Remember that the system will be moving almost inline with the shear,,,so that wont weaken it as much as the slightly cooler water temps........Thing is,,,when will peak out at and where? Thurs night sounds good to me.... then with her eyewall getting sheared over and pressure rises from its lows of Thurs night due to Friday daytime dur, shear and cooler water temps,,,expect anywhere from 20mph-30mph weaker during the day. Friday night she might just hold the intensity when she moves along almost with the shear flow.
I know it might sound confusing to some but everything is speculation,,even in the next 24 hours as she hasnt gone NW yet and isnt forecasted to until tomorrow night. My offical forecast wont be until Weds night.
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Quote:
Probably not much with this system cause its main steering flow will be from the strong trough of low pressure over the U.S., but it will fly thru the GULF and NW Carribean to see how much of the ridge is intact and/or weakening then what is believed in the models.... another words that data will go into the models and it could help the short term movement of Weds and Thurs before the main trough comes in to push it more rapidly NE friday into saturday.
huh???
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Well watching Dr. Steve right now, not real encouraging, of course it is early, and these systems have a tendancy to get caught around Honduras area, we will see.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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responding to his question on what the NOAA Jets purpose will be in flying out there on Tuesday.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Outflow beginning to look more and more healthy. Think if you look at the last frame on this loop you can see W and NW outflow beginning and would imagine will head in that direction. That seems to be the boundry, thoughts?
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It's difficult to tell if there is any movement right now or not, since the VIS images are no longer available. This is still a tropical storm, so it isn't necessarily a given that the center is anchored in the middle of the convection. In the last hour, it seems to have shrugged off some old convection to the west and redeveloped new convection near the last center fix, so it still may not be moving much at all.
Yeah, I see what you mean Thunder. I think it is just getting its act together, really. Still, it does not appear to be moving south any longer, even though the last recon fix was south of the previous center fix. Since then, it appears to have simply spun in place for 2-3 hours. It DEFINATELY looks better organized, though. The LLC *appears* to be under the nice black (very cold) cloud tops now whereas this afternoon it appears to be on the north edge of the .
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Never too early to ask what the intensity of a storm might be a landfall. Three or above you'll probably want to prepare to evacuate
but 1 or 2 might shelter in place. So to have some ideal is a good ideal.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Right now I would say the winds are getting up to a strong TS possibly near 70mph but would think the 11pm adv be 60mph due to no recon in there. Pressure still around 988mb on latest quicksat pass but wouldnt be surprised if its slightly lower.
Edited by scottsvb (Mon Oct 17 2005 10:20 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Right now I would say the winds are getting up to a strong TS possibly near 70mph but would think the 11pm adv be 60mph due to no recon in there. Pressure still around 988mb on latest quicksat pass but wouldnt be surprised if its slightly lower.
I can't understand the recon schedule with this thing. Looking at the IR4 loop I think youi're right about the winds, and without a recon to confirm it, they probably will stay on the low side. They need the plane to sample the atmosphere, though, to feed into the computer models so we have a better idea about where this is going!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well we have tonights 00Z runs then tomorrows 12Z then the main runs start with the NOAA plane to see if there are any changes,,,00z runs tomorrow night and then on.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Well we have tonights 00Z runs then tomorrows 12Z then the main runs start with the NOAA plane to see if there are any changes,,,00z runs tomorrow night and then on.
So basically another 24 hours of models that are probably going to be inconsistent (based upon the models of the last 2 days), and thus unreliable? Why not send a plane in sooner and get more reliable models sooner?
ETA:
The 0215z IR4 image looks rather... weird. After several hours of consecutively better organization appearing, the 0215z image looks... well, I think it looks weird. The , which was very circular earlier, is.... square! Is dry air pinching again? The WV image doesn't indicate so, but I can't figure out why it looks square right now 
UPDATE! 11pm is out.... 65mph winds, and it has finally turned! Moving due west at an incredible mph!
5 day forecast calls for the circulation center to be just off the coast of Florida.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Oct 17 2005 10:47 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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$$$ ,,cause we have time , its not moving much,,and not expected until tomorrow.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well I was pretty much right on,,, said near 70mph but probably they would do 60mph,,,they did 65mph. Pressure is near what i said 987 and wont know forsure until next recon gets in. Path is same as 5pm but maybe slightly east due to 18Z runs. OZ runs be out in a hour or 2.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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I believe there's a flight out now...should be approaching soon...even flew thru Cuban airspace.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Whats this about the 11:00 update being out I dont see it! Hugh posted it earlier..
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I posted it 10 min ago
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