Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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all storms ending in A are a problem...
alpha, beta next...just kidding...
but 3 cat 5's is just tooo wierd to me. and this one has an 882 mb pressure, and trochoidal oscillations....wow.....w
i've been involved in the hurricane work on weekends..volunteer...and the damage from is not possible...but there it is...I could write for hours on what did...
I just hope weakens.
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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
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What do you experts see for impact in the Ft. Myers area? Also, what is a realistic wind speed at land fall?
I'll sit back and read all of your great advice..
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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has anyone noticed anything interesting in the recco obs? I know a vortex will be out soon, but I was curious if anyone has noticed anything interesting yet. I also am getting the impression the windfield is expanding outward. Is this the case?
Yes, I'll admit, I'm nervous, I am in palm harbor, (anyone have a good elevation map of florida or Pinellas county?) and I'm probably going to make my decision to evacuate tomorrow night. I've already contacted friends in Gainesville and Atlanta, and even if the storm misses you, it's a very good idea to have your plans set out.
If you choose to ride out the storm, for whatever reason you decide you want to, make sure you have plenty of water, bread and batteries. I have a roommate, and together we have about 10 gallons of water, plus another 3 in the freezer frozen. Enough dried and non heated food to last a week, a portable radio and a non cordless telephone (and batteries). Plenty of other things, this has probably spiraled off topic a bit, but anyone have any other critical ideas for weathering a week without power? (car is full of gas)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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the 12Z track forecast is out and it is indeed similar to the 12Z , only even slower. It also stalls over the Yucutan and eventually brings it out on a slower and more southern path, centering it just south of the western tip of Cuba at the end of the forecast in 126 hours. Since the and are two of the major models used in track forecasts, the forecast just got a lot more complicated.
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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Quote:
the 12Z track forecast is out and it is indeed similar to the 12Z , only even slower. It also stalls over the Yucutan and eventually brings it out on a slower and more southern path, centering it just south of the western tip of Cuba at the end of the forecast in 126 hours. Since the and are two of the major models used in track forecasts, the forecast just got a lot more complicated.
Thuderbird, do you have a link for the 12Z ?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I said many times now that if the system does stall down by Cancun , it will go further south towards the keys or just south of there towards what the is showing.,, I want to see future runs of these models first.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Just go to wunderground.com its updated on the computer models under .
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
Quote:
the 12Z track forecast is out and it is indeed similar to the 12Z , only even slower. It also stalls over the Yucutan and eventually brings it out on a slower and more southern path, centering it just south of the western tip of Cuba at the end of the forecast in 126 hours. Since the and are two of the major models used in track forecasts, the forecast just got a lot more complicated.
Thuderbird, do you have a link for the 12Z ?
Here is a link to the points from the latest forecast track:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM&version=1&max=25
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debwire
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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I just made hotel reservations at a hotel in Tampa (in a non-flood zone). I live in flood zone A in St. Pete and am not willing to take chances this year like I did last year. I rode out and Jeanne and didn't evacuate for and after seeing 's aftermath as well as TBO.com's illustration, I just want peace of mind and to be out of harm's way. Advice for anyone else expecting to make reservations in the Tampa Bay area, a lot of the hotels are booked to capacity so you need to make them very soon. I got one that accepts pets as I have two cats and cannot evacuate to a shelter.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Doesn't she look like she's moving due west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well I still cant get more then 72hrs out on the ,,it hasnt slowed it at all and the keeps it even faster making landfall Friday night near Everglades City.
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debwire
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Here is a video clip of part of his press conference:
http://www.cnn.com/video/player/player.html?url=/video/us/2005/10/19/sot.nhc.mayfield.wsvn
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Lord...the local radio stations are already using Fred Flinstone's voice screeming "WILMA". Get used to it...it'll be all over the place (kinda tacky I think)
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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I"m getting the 6z with that link!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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This could be a case of bad data into the models. Seems odd that they made such swift changes... GDFL is not know for doing that, whereas you can expect that from the .
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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It'll be interesting to see what the recon finds. I'm not sure what to expect... the pressure almost certainly dropped lower than 882 mb after the plane left, since there was no indication at that point that the deepening was leveling off. It's likely been on the rise this morning based on the somewhat degraded satellite appearance. Not only will be first central pressure reading itself be notable, but also the current trend in pressure that will be observed with the second pressure fix. It will likely be impossible to go back and estimate what the pressure actually bottomed out at, but we can always speculate based on the current pressure trends.
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debwire
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Maps for the Tampa Bay area:
http://www2.sptimes.com/pdfs/hurricanemaps/
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
I"m getting the 6z with that link!
Oops... try this link and scroll down to the output, or hit the 'Current Version" link on the previous link I mentioned:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM&version=0&max=25
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Actually,,the UKMET also agrees on a slowdown and has done that for 2 days near the tip of the Yucitan,, so what can we think???? It will probably slow down on Friday but where and how long is the question. Again this is all a wait and see. I cant give anyone a prediction. IF it does slow down,, A turn more east like I said above thru the straits or skim nw Cuba would seem logical.
On a side note,,People keep asking me, do you think it will come to Tampa area? My answer is this,,,When Tampa gets a hurricane,,,,Cleveland will WIN a Championship in some major sport...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
any mods around .. so we can get a new thread started ? =D
I already asked a half hour ago! No such luck.
* * * * * * *
Wilma's track has consistently been keeping her just to the west of the warmest waters according to the HHCmap...which obviously doesn't seem to matter as she has plenty of heat content.
But if she stays on track, and even if she goes along a track that is a little more westward, once she gets above 19N there is going to be some warmer deep water. If she stalls there, east of the Yucatan, she'll likely just keep cycling at Cat 5 level, steady state like she's doing right now, and even possibly setting another record, depending on when and if an occurs (we've been expecting the small eye to implode practically from the first moment, but here it is going on 13 hours and still clearly visible on wv image; we don't understand it, but she has been steady state).
If she ramps down in intensity, expect her to come back up again once over this area.
* * * * * * *
I think recon is close. Guess they'll be using 700mb this time!
Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:11 PM)
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