JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Okay, I don't usually do this as I'm not a MET.
I just checked the last 24 hours of models runs on Dr Vigh's site at Colorado State.
If You live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center line. One of the models has been over or close to You.
The outlier (furtherest North of all models) seems to be the LBAR model. But it is constant with it's location.
The models Will change over the next few days. The main intent here is to get people to Prepare for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Wind Event.
If You, or someone You know. Live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center Line, then please get things in order for probable power and water outage, and possible evacuation.
If you are placed under a Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation...Please Leave.
Especially those near low lying areas that are prone to flash flooding, rivers, streams and the Beaches.
Interesting. I've been asking as to why the LBAR is so much of an outlier and if you remember, the moves towards it, then away, then back, etc. over the last 3 days.
But it has been constant putting the storm over the Tampa area. Anyone with a scientific reason why?
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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Is that some dry air coming in from the NW quadrant on the 0:15 IR frame?
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Are they a pretty reliable source with your past experiences? Is this the colorado university where Dr. Gray is?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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BRM, yeah I saw that too - the LBAR is usually a far outlier and the other model is a statistically based one. But, its interesting that the LBAR keeps shifting north along the coast, the UKMET shifted north from the Keys to Ft Myers, & the is near Ft Myers. I'm a little concerned about the slightly faster more poleward motion over the last 6-8 hrs. Too soon to see if this is a trend, but the faster moves with a more northward motion, the more latitude she will gain prior to the NE turn. We all know what that means. 
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RJB
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Are they a pretty reliable source with your past experiences? Is this the colorado university where Dr. Gray is?
They plot the output from the models every six hours, and archive it for reference.
Yes, Dr Gray, is listed as Senior Resident Scientist at CSU.
http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/dept/deptfaclist.php
Please edit your quotes down to a small quote. We are taking large amounts of space repeating posts.
Thank You~danielw
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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LBAR (Limited area sine transform BARotropic) is a two-dimensional track prediction model which solves the shallow-water equations initialized with vertically averaged (850-200 hPa) winds and heights from the Aviation Run of the MRF global model (Horsfall et al 1997). An idealized symmetric vortex and a constant vector (equal to the initial storm motion vector) are added to the global model analysis to represent the storm circulation. The boundary conditions are obtained from the global model forecast, and the model equations are solved using the spectral sine transform technique described by Chen et al (1997). To make LBAR timely, initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the 6 hr old MRF forecast. LBAR was developed as an operational version of the experimental VICBAR model (Aberson and DeMaria 1994).
Here is the science JG - I would say it is as clear as mud.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Here's my own personal opinion on what happened with Max Mayfield's PC this afternoon:
People saw the doing some weird things and latched onto that model ONLY, pretty much disregarding the enselmble models that he alluded to BEFORE he showed the model. We must all remember what he said: there is HIGH UNCERTAINTY in this forecast path and EVERYONE in Florida needs to pay attention.
I don't see, at this point anyway, that the storm has showed any sign of slowing down or stalling out...as of now. We must pay attention to ALL of the models; the may have been a fluke OR it could be valid. We have to be patient and wait.
Is there a chance that the ULL in the middle of the country could stall out, allowing to continue on her W/NW course? Yes. Is there a chance that the same ULL could still dive further south, allowing it to pick up ? Yes. Everything hinges on what the ULL does and I am not, at this point, ready to buy into a non-event for ANY part of Florida, as Daniel and many others have stated.
Frankly, it's still moving as it was supposed to be doing. I will be interested in taking a look at what the WV loops look like right now to see where that ULL is and if it's still speeding along like it was.
And I 2nd Daniel's request: please stop quoting, requoting and then answering. It takes a lot of time to read everything and it takes up too much bandwidth.
Thanks,
Colleen :-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Is that some dry air coming in from the NW quadrant on the 0:15 IR frame?
I've looked at the 0015z IR frame and the ones before and since it.. and I must ask... is WHAT some dry air?
The NE quadrant looks like it might have weakened somewhat out from the eye in the 0115z IR frame, but not the NW quadrant.
Looks like we're still seeing the spinning upon itself, too, with now more of a WNW net movement again.
Where is the new recon??? It's been 5 hours.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Also looks like it will wobble close to the forecast point as well.
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Michael
PWS
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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here is a some information concerning the data that has been included in the 00Z run:
NCEP Operational Status Message
Thu Oct 20 01:39:59 2005 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 200136
ADMNFD SPECIAL DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0130 UTC THU OCT 20 2005
200130Z...THE 00Z STARTED ON TIME. FOR THE START OF THE 00Z CYCLE RECEIVED 27 UPPER AIR REPORTS FROM CANADA...2 FROM THE CARIBBEAN...NONE FROM MEXICO.
UPPER AIR DATA LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR THE START OF THE 00Z NAM.
A USAFR RECON AIRCRAFT TRANSMITTED A FEW DROPS AND FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS IN SUPPORT OF HURRICANE OPERATIONS BEFORE THE START OF THE 00Z CYCLE.
A GOES EAST RSO IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 22/2326Z. KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP
The Mets will need to comment on if this appears to be enough data to make a difference.
Edited by CDMOrlando (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:21 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Close to it, maybe... but it is still well east of the forecast point. Soon it will be north of it until it jogs SW (which is possible with the way this thing has been wobbling)..
The good news right now is that at least to my eyes, is not re-strengthening (yet)... so maybe I was wrong earlier when I predicted that we might once again wake up to the most intense hurricane on record (meaning stronger than it was at 4am today).
Can a MET or someone with more knowledge answer this.... earlier it was apparent that we were in the midst of an ... yet the overall cloud pattern has not deteriorated signifcantly. Sure, it doesn't look like the massive ball of black that it did at 5am this morning when I woke up.. but it doesn't look like it has weakened to less than 155 mph to me, either. Is the completed, or did it never begin really?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:28 PM)
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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JUST TO GIVE YOU AN
IDEA OF HOW CRAZY THIS HURRICANE SEASON HAS BEEN, HERE IS A SUMMARY
OF SOME OF THE RECORDS THAT HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED SO FAR THIS
SEASON. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO BE AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST.
STRONGEST GULF HURRICANE IN MONTH OF JULY (DENNIS).
MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES TO DEVELOP IN JULY (5).
MOST MAJOR HURRICANES TO DEVELOP IN JULY (2; TIED WITH 1916).
MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES TO DEVELOP IN JUNE AND JULY (7).
EARLIEST DATE FOR 4TH (D) STORM (DENNIS, JULY 5), AND MOST IF NOT
ALL LETTERS THEREAFTER.
MOST NAMED STORMS (21; TIED WITH 1933).
MOST HURRICANES IN A SEASON (12; TIED WITH 1969).
FIRST EVER V STORM (VINCE)
FIRST EVER W STORM (WILMA)
STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN ATLANTIC BASIN (WILMA).
COSTLIEST NATURAL DISASTER IN U.S. HISTORY (KATRINA).
DEADLIEST HURRICANE IN U.S. SINCE 1928 (KATRINA).
This is not my list, this is cut straight from the panhandle disco. However, I think the 3 cat 5s is also one. Also, I heard that of the top 6 strongest hurricanes, three were this year!
Edited by abyrd (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:39 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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You left off one... most named storms in June (2) (perhaps only since a long time ago, I can't remember exactly). It seems insignificant at this point, but it was a bit of a sign of things to come, even back then.
there were three storms in june 1968. last time prior to this year there were 2 was 1986. it's not common, but not unprecedented. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:08 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Is the fact that we have had three cat 5's in one season a record also? I haven't confirmed that yet.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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now a cat 4....
(for how long?)
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.
'estimated minimum central pressure...from the Advisory text'~danielw
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:45 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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NEWS FLASH JIM Cantorie going to Ft Myers by 4pm he said tomorrow....LOL that means they are thinking,,,Naples-Sarasota.....but no one really knows forsure.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Not much respite, at 155.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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i dunno ussaly where jim ends up has a pretty good shot he seems to pretty close to landfall every time ..
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I believe 3 cat 5's is a record as well...
BREAKING NEWS! has been downgraded as of 11pm to a cat 4. Winds are down to 155mph.
Pressure is 894. Forecast track... landfall is hard to guage, but the 2pm Sunday position is on the east coast of the peninsula, due east of Lake Okechobee(sp?). The Monday 2pm position appears to be a few hundred miles off the coast of Delaware.
Storm Hunter: To answer your "for how long?" question... my guess is 6 hours, or less. Whenever the next plane is in the eyewall.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:41 PM)
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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uhh is it just me or is this newest track more northerly....
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