pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
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To FLA Mommy,
We're going to be fine here in Tampa Bay. It appears that its going to plow into Cazumel which should weaken it if it stays WNW. If it hit Cancun it would not weaken much but it appears that this one has Cazumel's name on it. I've been hearing Tampa on these boards for days now. Even though Tampa was and still is in the cone, the chance was much slighter of it hitting Tampa as opposed to SW Fla. Lets hope this thing get picked apart on land and none of Florida gets it.
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Hey Mets, how about going out on a limb for us...
If you had to select just ONE model between , , , , FSU or UKM, which one would you choose to monitor?
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:31 AM)
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
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Sorry about that Native. It's just very frustrating when the and others have been zoning in on SW FLA (even though TPA was and is in the cone) and you get people coming on here and just Wishcasting for Tampa. Over the past two days, I've read Tampa probably more than any other city on this board. I realize Tampa is in the cone, but the probabilities were much higher for Ft. Myers and South. Let's just hope ALL of Florida is missed on this one.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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You said it...that #$%* ...it's done some crazy stunts this year but for the most part in end it's been the winner. It frustrating to keep saying/hearing we'll know better tomorrow....now it looks as if that "tomorrow" will actually be Sunday. It'll be interesting to see what recon will come back with on the next round for the eye..if they're going to be able to tell if any of the dry air or proximity to land is starting have any effects on her.
man I need to use that spell check! Sorry.
Edited by native (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:36 AM)
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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Quote:
Wait, if you knew a hurricane was coming through the channel and you were on land either side of it; common sense would say prepare. But then again look at New Orleans?
Obviously people should have been preparing. But there's an enormous difference between being on the west side of a CAT 5 and being just east of the eyewall of a CAT 5.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Pincty,
You have your Geography wrong. You mean Cancun is getting plowed. Cozumel is the island.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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METS AND MODS ARE BUSY FOLKS...Let's not be more work for them. Let's stay on topic (which is tropic) and try not make anymore off-topic comments or inflammitory remarks. (myself included)
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
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Sorry. What I meant to say was that it appears that it will go inland further south of the tip. Thus if it maintained its apparent WNW motion then it would weaken more as compared to if it just clipped the tip.
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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Has anyone seen the 10AM? Also, the latest track was 4AM?? Anyone have anything later??
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The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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thats 10 am central or 11 eastern, its not out yet i am checking at wunderground every 2 seconds for it tho. I imagine wont change anything until this is out of mex
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
Pincty,
You have your Geography wrong. You mean Cancun is getting plowed. Cozumel is the island.
actually Pincty is correct. Cozumel is getting hit hard now. Cancun's fate is still undetermined. could veer East of Cancun. Wilma hitting Cozumel
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Werll 11am is out and here is the best from it. Winds are 145 but slowed to 4MPH.
Hurricane center located near 20.2n 86.5w at 21/1500z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 930 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Track about the same maybe 20 miles north of last update but really not changed.
Edited by Rdietch (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:47 AM)
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
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I have not yet seen it. However if you really want to see something weird go to Weather Underground and check the latest updated NOGAP's track.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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preface: lot of emotional discussion on here this morning. tone it down and keep your comments on track, and there won't be deletions and a lot of pointless bickering.
that said, is just about there. it does look like a 10-12hr or so landfall if the short term motion keeps up and the center doesn't start magnetically clinging to land. guidance is still in a place that the coast-hugging idea after florida landfall isn't out to lunch, even though most guidance doesn't support this.
i haven't looked thoroughly for previous comments, but a new invest 99L is active on the eastern caribbean disturbance. there appears to be a low forming on the southern side of the convective region, which has been fairly consistent since yesterday morning. circulation around and weaker ridging further west should draw it northward and recurve it should a system form... track guidance pretty much shows it crossing hispaniola and turning northeast. at 11 should mention it more, as the downplay it's been getting for the last day looks off the mark.
gfs shows a pattern-induced system forming in the southwest caribbean in 's wake as strong ridging persists over the east at the surface (while an upper cutoff persists in the same region). also shows response ridging currently over the subtropics staying up, shifting slowly west and weakening in about ten days. this is early, but the same persistent feature i've been mentioning should want to be there by the pattern, and that has been intermittently showing up on . the fact that shows it moving north, then northwest, then northeast near florida in just inside 2 weeks makes it more interesting than usual, but if anything is going to be there then it won't start showing up for 4-5 days. will see.
HF 1446z21october
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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this is good news for tampa folks!!  keep slowing up!!
Quote:
Werll 11am is out and here is the best from it. Winds are 145 but slowed to 4MPH.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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NHC will update the track at 11:00am edt...about another 15 minutes or so.
HankFrank - just curious as to your take on latest run...I know you had expressed some concern a couple days back about running up the eastern seaboard and becoming problematic for the NE. Then, I think it was early yesterday (I may be mistaken) you seem to relax a little on that and felt it was maybe more of a maritime problem. So, here's the question: Is there "something" a ridge, a trough, a whatever that may be setting up that eastcoast skirting again come tuesday?
Nevermind HF - I was typing at the same time. As always, thanks for your knowledge.
Edited by native (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:53 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Nogaps is the 0z run from last night on there.
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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Quote:
I have not yet seen it. However if you really want to see something weird go to Weather Underground and check the latest updated NOGAP's track.
and it just had it going to florida the other day... So to say it's going to ft.myers or naples, or tampa or WHEREVER at this moment is impossible, the only reliable track at the moment is where it actually goes right now... 10 hours from now it could be going 7mph WNW again. You won't know where it's going to go till it starts going NE. If it continues NW/WNW and exits more westerly it very well could go more north or it could go directly east. Nobody knows... which is why you must wait and see.
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jcarroll01
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, FL
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First post ever.....99% of the discussion seems to be very informative, civil, and pretty tame. I think every once in a while someone needs to be the voice of dissent just to get minds churning again after a very long drawn out event.
Thanks everyone for educating me, although I'm still swimming in acronyms.
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"Sometimes nothing is a really cool hand"
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