FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Thanks for that info Jamiewx! I live in Mount Dora and honestly didn't think it was going to be that severe. I guess I better pick up my Halloween decor tomorrow........
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Accuweather seems to be trying to stay with model consensus. Expect to shift north. Doubt quite thaat far this time. Expect Hurricane watch from Tampa area south, too.
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Jim
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I know I heard and also read that the S side of the storm should/could be the worst due to the front, this model does not completely show that, only one model though
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Pressure down slightly on the last recon... it seems to be holding its own for now. With a large eye, re-intensification may be slow to occur if it does at all.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:40 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The south side of the storm should be the strongest because of the forward speed. Max winds should be much lower on the northern side of the storm, but there could be a wide area of strong tropical storm force winds to the north because of the pressure gradient in that area.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Guys
The has a press conference at 5pm. Sunsentinel has live video again.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the
West Coast of Florida from Longboat Key southward...and along the
East Coast of Florida from Titusville southward.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.
At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued along the West
Coast of Florida from north of Longboat Key northward to
Steinhatchee river... and along the East Coast of Florida from
north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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That covers the whole state except the panhandle area.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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nhc news conference to be broadcast on cnn
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Thanks for the heads up...lets hope my computer doesn't decide to become finky when I watch it. I don't have cable so can't watch it on CNN
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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From the 5pm ET discussion:
"Alpha is the twenty-second named storm this season and overall makes the 2005
hurricane season the most active on record. "
That just sounds... crazy. But then again, this has been a crazy season.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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NHC refuses to move the path north. what do they know that everyone else and the models don't?
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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On TS and Hurricane, yes...But hurricane ONLY south of Tampa
Basically cutting off from I-4 South as "Hurricane" and I-4 North as "Tropical Storm"
With it being as wide as it s, that's to be expected. It would seem as if they're staying close to the original track, with some confidence
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Buoy's 42039 and 42036 both are dropping in pressure over the last couple of hours now. Also, FoxNews is covering PC
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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They still have plenty of time to move it. Does not surprise me that there was no move. What move that would have been likely was only a smal small move anyways. Still have 40 hours to landfall. Like I said before, I am not sure this storm will be the type that 20 miles makes a huge difference.
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Jim
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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That's a little overly simplistic. Longboat Key is substantially further south than Tampa by about 2 hours by car.
Longboat Key is in south Manatee county. Just an FYI
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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max mayfield just said long boat was north of tampa....
having stayed at my Grandparents' house on Anna Maria Island (Due north of Longboat) for many years, I can say with precise certainty where Longboat Key is.  -Tom
Edited by tpratch (Sat Oct 22 2005 05:09 PM)
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Longboat Key is approximately 50 to 60 miles South of I-4.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Guys it is important to look at your local forecasts from the NWS. My area (Lake County) is under a Tropical Storm Watch and we are forecast to get gusts to Hurricane Force.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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Yes, it is simplistic.
But it is a good point of reference.
and according to this...
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?sea...fl&zipcode=
It is just south of Tampa
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