Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Hey Shawn, glad to see you back here. I was in your area not too long ago and have to echo your sentiments. It was heartwarming to see everyone trying to come back and I hope that if there is a next time that things will turn out differently. Contrast that to the northeast side of New Orleans itself, just southwest of the I-10/I-510 interchange, which looks like an absolute ghost town. That was the most depressing of all.
If La Nina develops into the upcoming season, there might be a slight proclivity for storms to affect the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines moreso than the Gulf, but that's no slam dunk. We're in a pattern in the extreme eastern Atlantic that favors less Cape Verde storms (due to the dust), keeping more systems a threat closer to the populated areas of the basin. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, but for the sake of everyone along the coastline, Gulf and Atlantic, I hope things stay out to sea.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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I'll take the trof that keeps interacting with the ULL near PR for $200, HF! 
For the most part, I think I've definitely seen a few "attempters" out there, already. Nothing close, but some subtle features suggesting to me that we may see an early first-identified TD this season. If that bugger of a ULL would slacken up just a bit - er, like 40 knots of shear worth - to allow the surface trof draping across central-eastern Carib to fester a bit more, and just gently stoke it a few more days, this would be a good example of what I am talking about.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Hey NLU, it's great to read about the successes! You have all met a challenge most of the developed world will probably never comprehend, yet stand courageous and steadfast in your resolve. Truly, folks such as yourself are models of hope and faith for all.
Would love to see the home rebuilding vid. I'm sure many of us would!
Best,
Ciel
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
Hey Shawn, glad to see you back here. I was in your area not too long ago and have to echo your sentiments. It was heartwarming to see everyone trying to come back and I hope that if there is a next time that things will turn out differently. Contrast that to the northeast side of New Orleans itself, just southwest of the I-10/I-510 interchange, which looks like an absolute ghost town. That was the most depressing of all.
If La Nina develops into the upcoming season, there might be a slight proclivity for storms to affect the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines moreso than the Gulf, but that's no slam dunk. We're in a pattern in the extreme eastern Atlantic that favors less Cape Verde storms (due to the dust), keeping more systems a threat closer to the populated areas of the basin. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, but for the sake of everyone along the coastline, Gulf and Atlantic, I hope things stay out to sea.
What's up bud!!! Did you go pay Jess and Travis a visit? Yeah the area around there (New Orleans East) and the Lower 9th Ward for sure are basically empty. Most of the people can't afford to re-build although a few have come back. At least here it seems as though people want to come back. How have you been?
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
Hey NLU, it's great to read about the successes! You have all met a challenge most of the developed world will probably never comprehend, yet stand courageous and steadfast in your resolve. Truly, folks such as yourself are models of hope and faith for all.
Would love to see the home rebuilding vid. I'm sure many of us would!
Best,
Ciel
I really appreciate that! It's been rough, I can't lie about that. It's been a lot of tears and a lot of days where you just want to give up. I'm still hanging on though for now!!!  Let's just have another season with no hurricanes in the Gulf! That would be nice.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This thread has drifted a bit off-topic in the past few days, so just a gentle reminder to emphasize the tropics on the Main Page article. Personal experiences and anecdotes are really better suited to the Hurricane History forum, but I realize that as the Winter months drift by and Spring settles in, everyone begins to anticipate the new season. Welcome back to all - the busy season on the site is getting close.
For those who are registering as new Users:
In order to combat a recent rash of automated 'spam' registrations, it is important for individuals who are registering as a New User to place an entry in the field "Total # of Years Tracking Storms", even if the entry is '0'. Without an entry in this field, your application for registration will probably be rejected.
Current registered Users do not need to place an entry in this field if the field is currently blank.
ED
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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An active season across the atlantic basin continues to look quite likely...Lets hope the steerning pattern is in our favor.
Noaa update Here
Edited by Hurricane29 (Tue Mar 27 2007 04:19 PM)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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I know that's an "official" powerpoint presentation, but I wish there was a layman's explanatiotoo. *LOL*
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Mar 28 2007 08:39 AM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Hello Folks,
It looks like there are componants in place this spring that could lead us to and active Hurricane season.
I was looking at some bouy data:
Just 20 NM offshore the Ocean temp is 77.5 degrees
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
At 120 NM offshore the Ocean temp is 74.8 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
In the Central Carib. the water is 81.1 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Is this "Normal" for this time of year?
Or are the waters off Florida warmer than usual for this time of year?
With the outlook of less shear winds, and warmer water. We really could have a busy season.
Any thoughts?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Reynolds SST Anomaly (on March 31st) indicates that the waters off east Florida are just a tad below normal, i.e., normal at the distant buoy and just slightly below normal at the nearshore buoy. In the central Caribbean Sea the SSTs are about a degree or so above normal for this time of year.
Reynolds Atlantic SST Anomaly
The long range forecast doesn't show any change in the Caribbean SSTs for the next six months, but then again, it also doesn't show the current pocket of high anomalies in the north central Gulf either.
Six Month SST Forecast
Cheers,
ED
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AKABEACH
Unregistered
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Thanks for the input Ed.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Checking the 3/31/2007 peak daytime observations at buoy 42058 against last year.
2007-air temp 27.5C/ sea temp 27.4
2006-air temp 26.8C/ sea temp 26.8
Air temp is 0.7C above last year, and sea temp is 0.6C above last year.
This is a relatively new buoy with no data for this date in 2005.
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I don't think there is any doubt that the El Nino is gone and an all out La Nina will be in place by May.
Pretty easy to see the reduction in the SST in the equatorial pacific here.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure1.gif
Not looking like we are going to get lucky this season like we did in 2006.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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anyone seen the loop current in the GOM?
can't seem to find it... lol 
GOM Temps
wider shot... very nice gulf stream shapping up off the east coast. bet the fishing might start kicking in? Wide Shot ATL
another neat new image
Color Image
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Apr 09 2007 03:12 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like the Loop Current is close to pinching off a warm eddy in the next few weeks.
All of the links in Storm Hunters posts show the Loop Current. Some better than others.
The best example would be the one with sea height contours. However, it appears to be an older map image.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm... just buzzing through sats today and came across this...
EPAC also noted that what looks like an small upper low just east of florida coast heading south... Bringing some showers to the east coast of Florida. Almost a month away and i see NC State team is calling for 8-9 Hurricanes for the season.... Need to read up on their study.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Composite SST of GOM (Gulf of Mexico) on 11 APR 07.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2007-04/g12%2E070411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
Composite SST of GOM on 11 APR 05
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2005-04/g12%2E050411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
Edited by danielw (Sat Apr 21 2007 03:10 AM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Quote:
Composite SST of GOM (Gulf of Mexico) on 11 APR 07.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2007-04/g12%2E070411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
Composite SST of GOM on 11 APR 05
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2005-04/g12%2E050411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
much warmer than.
Eh?
2007 looks to be a good 1 - 2 degrees warmer overall.
In particular, look at the Southern, Central, Northern and Western Gulf. About the only place that seems to be cooler is the eastern region near Tampa and the big bend area.
I'm not too worried about the water temps quite yet, Let's see what they're looking like at the end of May. If they're still running above average... then there might be a small problem.
(is this line of conversation better served in another forum? if so, obviously feel free to move it)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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maybe the oncoming la nina is finally starting to assert itself in terms of seasonal pattern evolution. earlier this spring and late winter the analog patterns on the 6-10/8-14 day outlooks were from mostly el nino regimes, with occasional others interspersed. the forecast for today shows a solid string analogs from la nina years. maybe the start of a trend we'll see repeat into the season.
la nina years usually have a slow june-july portion and then suddenly switch all the way on some time in august. more often than not it happens around the third week. nothing to say this one won't fit the bill, though. we'll probably see the big numbers this year... that seems fairly certain at this point. the big question will be whether the longwave pattern has the escape hatch in the western atlantic open.
HF 0234z24april
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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HF, looking at temp. anomolies so far (posted previously), the Atlantic is running about avarage, so we need to take note of those temps closer to home which are running on the warm to boiling side. Waves may sneak in to the Bahamas/Carribean/Gulf and grow quickly if this trend continues (Like ,Rita,and ). This has been a more discouraging piece of info to me (As I hope for an active '07 season tracking wise with ZERO landfalls).
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