Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon just went back through the center... looks like pressure may be down slightly at about 983.9 mb (~ 29.05 inHg) around 17.1N 71.75W at 07:36:00Z
they came in from the NE and i do see higher winds in the data... especially at flight level... winds on SFMR at the surface at 80mph and maybe above
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 26 2008 03:54 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Gustav is going to raise many flags at the next Advisory.
It appears to have spun up in 24 hours from a "Special Trop. Disturbance" to an 80 mph Hurricane. I feel certain that the system was probably a Tropical Depression on Sunday and possibly a Tropical Storm on Sunday Night. Without RECON in there to confirm the decided to hold off on the upgrade.
Gustav has raised my concern level a notch or two since yesterday. While the 80mph doesn't surprise me the change in the current Forecast Track is a bit surprising.
First, It places nearly the whole FL Peninsula in the Eastern Semicircle ( bad side) once the storm enters the GOM.
Second. While the current track (heading) is aimed at the Mouth of the Ms River. It still leave a large area for the storm to intensify and turn coastbound. Current extrapolated track is toward the SW FL Coastline and on toward Appalachicola area. This has changed a bit from the 11 AM advisory on Monday. At that time the extrrap. was aimed at the Mouth of the MS River.
Extrap. tend to move a great deal from Advisory to Advisory. Due to the Storm changing the location of the center or changes in heading direction.
(Extrap. is the black dashed line seen on the model maps.)
Once Gustav enters the GOM the forward speed and radius of winds will dictate how soon the Watches and Warnings go up.
Labor Day weekend could be spent glued to the tv's and radios. Instead of the sand and picnic tables.
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 26 2008 04:39 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 260826
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 26/07:36:30Z
B. 17 deg 06 min N
071 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2986 m
D. 76 kt
E. 062 deg 011 nm
F. 141 deg 091 kt
G. 062 deg 014 nm
H. EXTRAP 984 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 15 C/ 3039 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0207A GUSTAV OB 16
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 0733 Z (~ 104.7mph)
RADAR DEPICTED RAGGED EDGE EYEWALL, VARIABLE 20-25 NM,
ADDITIONAL INNER BAND WSW-N
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 234 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 26 2008 04:45 AM)
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