berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Latest loops as of 19Z have Alex moving WNW with a slight right turn as it now is about to re-emerge over the GOM though continuing to weaken. I don't know what to think about the models but unlike two days ago when it was only the and in the poleward camp today both have company. TX/LA? It's hard to bite on that left turn at the end of the forecast period looking at how the longwave trough over the east and upper ridge over the center of the country sets up...but damn those models. Strong shear is migrating northward now near 24N latitude so it appears the upper ridge over Alex is a long for the ride and that's not good. A forecast is only as good as consistent model to model run....I'm not comfortable speculating about anything.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Man the models seemed so sure of themselves yesterday and now all bets are off it looks like. This is not good for the oil cleanup efforts at all.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Well you know Sir... until it's back over water and has a well defined center and we get a good indication of how it's doing and which way it is going, the models can be nothing more than overcooked spaghetti...
long range ensemble models have it moving over Ok City and up towards the Great Lakes...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201001_ensmodel.html#a_topad
Interesting considering the path is NOT through Mexico...
so.... I suggest we wait a few hours and get data from the planes (which I believe found low pressure and stronger winds) and then see how the next model runs go
...wouldn't you agree Berry?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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ps would be hard to buy that hard a left turn.. aside from the ridge "breaking down" there's been some strange wrong way movement of clouds and weather over Ms/La and Tx today ... almost as if an ULL was forming tho think its more an Eddy of sorts temporary and not a real factor but a lot going on out there
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Noticed earlier that both the Slidell,LA and Brownsville,TX radars at 248 nm had rain moving toward the shoreline. Appeared to be storm connected but with the ULLs all over the place it is a bit hard to tell.
Is the picking up on the ULL to the East of the Bahamas? Or is it trying to spin off a bit of energy as mentioned in an above post?
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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It does appear that last 2 hours worth of images are showing more northward jog. We'll see if it holds on the 6 hourly mean.
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CLWeather
Unregistered
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Interesting 5pm discussion from the :
"...THIS TRACK FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE."
Will they fly another recon trip tonight to try and get a handle on the track?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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last check... recon should depart around 5pm... by time the flight arrives in area of Alex.. the coc should be back over water. I just did a google earth measurement and it appears to me Alex coc is less then 25 miles from coast.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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There is an ULL digging into the 4 corners region right now. I think that might be starting to have an effect on Alex
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I believe it is moving offshore now. The more northerly component cut down on the amount of time over land
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that it might be more of an apparent northward jog rather than an actual one. At 19Z the low-level circulation was at about 18.8N 91.1W and at 21Z it is near 18.8N 91.3W. A few hours earlier I noticed a second center of circulation, perhaps mid-level, to the NNE of the surface center. Keeping in mind that TD Alex is now a lot weaker, a weakening of the original surface center and development of a new one more in line with the mid-level circulation is probably what has evolved. I had located the mid-level at 19.3N 90.9W at 21Z - pretty close, and it also helps with the verification of your last initial forecast point 
On another subject, I've added a few Mexico observation links on the Main Page. At 21Z the wind at Campeche was out of the east northeast at 20 knots and the SLP was 998mb.
ED
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analyst
Unregistered
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GFS has been pretty consistent in wanting to spin off a low and basically wanting to take that low on a tour of the northern gulf coast. I believe a lot of the models are run off the which is why there could be such a split in the models camp.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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there did appear to be a spilt.. a mid to upper part of the COC west a little went and the surface COC went NW... very close to the coast.. based on the last few images, i say Alex is entering the GOM now... and convection close to the NW side of the COC is firing up in a feeder band.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01006252203.GIF
attached i did a little drawing... (threw my eyes... not official)
Red - low level COC
Orange - mid to upper level
light blue - new convection... points to center
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 27 2010 06:32 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
there did appear to be a spilt.. a mid to upper part of the COC west a little west and the surface COC went NW... very close to the coast.. based on the last few images, i say Alex is entering the GOM now... and convection close to the NW side of the COC is firing up in a feeder band.
and the outflow from Alex is tremendous.... stretching all the way to just offshore of here (Florida Panhandle).
I suspect that by the 11pm advisory, Alex will have easily regained tropical storm intensity, although the winds at the LLC may take some time to ramp up. The recon reports earlier indicated tropical storm force winds at flight level in the outer bands well away from the storm.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon 304 is about 100 miles north of the yucatan. Pretty sure by the time the turn SW and arrive at Alex... the COC will be back over water
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 27 2010 06:48 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Recon 304 is about 100 miles north of the yucatan. Pretty sure by the time the turn SW and arrive at Alex... the COC will be back over water
Uh, since the COC has been back over water for at least an hour, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that it will still be over water when the plane gets there
Edit: Looking at the approaching trough... I'm beginning to think one of two scenarios will unfold...
1) Alex misses the trough, and heads basically due west into Mexico - not like, in my opinon
2) The trough picks Alex up and moves it almost due north, toward the central Gulf Coast. In this scenario, the westward movement would, in my view, end rather abruptly... putting Alex onshore no further west than Galveston, and I think closer to the TX/LA border. The trough axis seems almost verticle to me.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 27 2010 07:14 PM)
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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc:
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Yeah, it's lighting up in the last satellite frame, sniffing that warm water, and the pressure dropped, and the models are all over the map as to where it's going, but shifting to the east.
If memory serves, they said it would take 5 days to prepare for a hurricane in the runaway BP oil well. Getting pretty close to decision time. We may be about to see the effect of not pumping millions of gallons of dispersant into the oil, which they've been doing non-stop from day one.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Yeah, it's lighting up in the last satellite frame, sniffing that warm water, and the pressure dropped, and the models are all over the map as to where it's going, but shifting to the east.
If memory serves, they said it would take 5 days to prepare for a hurricane in the runaway BP oil well. Getting pretty close to decision time. We may be about to see the effect of not pumping millions of gallons of dispersant into the oil, which they've been doing non-stop from day one.
The time to prepare is, unfortunately, now. Even if the current forecast doesn't move a mile further east (which, I believe, it will have to), the storm will still cause upwelling in the area of the oil slick. If the storm stays over the Gulf longer and strengthens more than the current forecast calls for... it's going to be a very messy situation.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that this is a good time to remind everyone to be mindful of someone else's opinion. At 23Z I place the center at 19.0N 91.3W, or right on the coast - which means that an hour ago it was still over land - but that is just my opinion based on high res satellite.
Cheers,
ED
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I think that this is a good time to remind everyone to be mindful of someone else's opinion. At 23Z I place the center at 19.0N 91.3W, or right on the coast - which means that an hour ago it was still over land - but that is just my opinion based on high res satellite.
Cheers,
ED
Very true, Ed. The basis for my opinion is the rather impressive blowup of convection near the LLC in the 2245z AVN image, compared to the 2215z image. That indicates to me that the LLC moved offshore sometime in that 30 minute interval - so it looks like my previous opinion was a bit off. Having said that, the big blowup of convection is evidence to me that the LLC is at least partially now over the Bay of Campeche, as of 2245.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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