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MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Soical media snapchat map: https://map.snapchat.com/@26.526420,-77.103157,12.39z
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Adding recordings for two flavors of Florida Radar http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?467 and http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?466 Bahamas cams are all down already. 9:26am was the last image out of Abaco.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Since 1950, only 3 Atlantic #hurricanes have had max winds stronger than #HurricaneDorian's current max winds of 180 mph: Allen (1980): Max winds of 190 mph Gilbert (1988): Max winds of 185 mph Wilma (2005): Max winds of 185 mph - Phil K.
cieldumort |
Moderator 
Reged: Mon Posts: 2305 Loc: Austin, Tx
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How Dorian's 913mb (and still falling) compared to the lowest pressures of all TCs in modern Atlantic tropical history (from 1851-2018). (Credit: Ian Livingston) 
-------------------- Fully vaccinated as of May 2021 (Moderna x2)
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Storm surge map now up https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/155815.shtml?inundation#contents
JMII
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Weather Master 
Reged: Thu Posts: 489 Loc: Margate, Florida
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Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to 911 mb (26.90 inches). -------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for: David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17 Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
Psyber
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Storm Tracker 
Reged: Fri Posts: 231 Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote: Mike, what are your thoughts on extending the Saffir Simpson scale to H6 and H7 given this storm? Surely 185 sustained needs to be more than an H5. People listen to the size of the storm and not the speeds and H5 is a full 30 MPH slower than the current speed of Dorian. It's like the largest EF4 tornado ever measured. -------------------- The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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I think extending the Scale is pointless and just confuses folks.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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A few scattered reports coming out from Abaco (mianly before the other eyewall hit) http://bahamaspress.com/2019/09/01/fear-...ur-under-water/
LadyStorm
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Weather Guru 
Reged: Thu Posts: 154 Loc: United States
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Mike, what are your thoughts on extending the Saffir Simpson scale to H6 and H7 given this storm? Surely 185 sustained needs to be more than an H5. People listen to the size of the storm and not the speeds and H5 is a full 30 MPH slower than the current speed of Dorian. It's like the largest EF4 tornado ever measured. I think it's a good idea. When the original scale was thought of, we did not yet recognize global warming. As our planet's weather patterns change it would be a good idea to update this scale. Stronger winds need to be measured beyond the scale we currently have. We need to accommodate for a changing future. Sorry if this is off topic. Just adding my two cents. Here is a story that supports my view good read https://www.popsci.com/category-6-hurricane/ Let's stay on topic (on Dorian, right here, right now) and less on climate change or other secondary or tertiary discussion/theories. Feel free to open up a new topic "Climate change and Dorian?" or something like that in ASK/TELL. Thanks! - Ciel Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:18 PM)
Psyber
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Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri Posts: 231 Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote: OMG you read some of the points on that page, Mike? They sound umm not to be political but they sound HIGHLY political in nature and suggest some straight on conspiracies. I'm not complaining because it shows some of the devastation however holy cow. :/ As for changing the Scale, the weather is going to be getting more intense and it seems like people don't respect H5s like they used to. Their homes don't all fly away in a normal H5 so whiy leave? We're talking thirty extra miles here though. The scale roughly goes up by 15's and 20's and then ends when Simpson roughly figures that should be about enough however we're looking at a storm that's now 30 higher than an H5. What if it goes 40? 50? It seems irresponsible to stop because people listen to the grade, not the wind speeds. Even local governments will only make people build homes certified to H5/157MPH which if you hear it, they BARELY make 157MPH. If you asked someone what an H1 speed was, they wouldn't even have an idea on it let alone the rest. Let's stay on topic (on Dorian, right here, right now) and less on secondary or tertiary discussion/theories. Feel free to open up a new topic "Time for Cat 6?" or something like that in ASK/TELL. Thanks! - Ciel Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:22 PM)
gvl, fl
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Verified CFHC User Reged: Thu Posts: 12 Loc: Gainesville, FL
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The Florida Keys storm of 1935 was also 185 mph. Hurricane Allen (1980) was 190 mph. It's just another strong storm. It's not evidence of anything, except perhaps under some pseudo-science. I don't think anyone says "Oh, it's only a Category 5, honey. No worries!"
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Port Nassau webcam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk_GoTxJf-g It's south of Dorian by a fair amount, but will probably stay up.
Psyber
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Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri Posts: 231 Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote: The camera is, of course, showing a ton of lightning. I saw a met blog...of course I lost the link because with social media, everybody is tweeting but he remarked that the amount of lightning on the leading edge of the eyewall is extreme to what is normal. Is this from the storm being so compact/its weather being compact or another reason? -------------------- The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
cieldumort |
Moderator
Reged: Mon Posts: 2305 Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote: Port Nassau is in the outer bands, not the eywall. Lightning (and sometimes tornadoes) is fairly common in the outer bands of tropical cyclones. What is remarkable about Dorian, is the intense, persistent lightning today into tonight in the entire eyewall. Hurricane lightning science is still in its infancy, and much work is being done to understand it better. It does tell a story, and can be very useful, where understood. Often, lightning in the eyewall at the expense of lightning in the outer bands can be an indication of strengthening - often from tropical storm into a hurricane - but we are not seeing that here. Here, we have blasts of lightning in both the outer banding and the eyewall. Truly impressive. Edit to add that it does appear that it could be an indication of an ERC underway. Studies have shown this. In watching TWC right now, Dr. Knabb stated that he believes this could be the case here, as well. -------------------- Fully vaccinated as of May 2021 (Moderna x2) Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:36 PM)
Psyber
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Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri Posts: 231 Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote: He said lightning was being generated and unleashing uncharacteristically so quickly on the outside of the N/W edge of the eyewall that they couldn't even begin to measure it, even when it moved into doppler range as in over a hundred strikes per hour. The amount of power being expended just in lightning is almost astonishing. -------------------- The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Last recon pass shows 912mb, maybe a new vortex will clear it up, but otherwise it's deepening again.
Psyber
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Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri Posts: 231 Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote: Very little drop in intensity which is within fluctuation from the last tests by like 1% so if anything, this establishes that the sampling of the storm is spot on. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY Doesn't that just call the truth? A storm that's spent a ton of its life at 60-70NM wide with errors out to 175 NM and almost full category intensity changes in error. -------------------- The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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This morning it's weakening (relative, still cat 5) a bit as the land interaction plus eyewall replacement going on, from radar it looks like it is expanding in size Some rain bands are in South Florida, and there's a training rainband on the tail over the Keys that are things to watch beyond just the center which is devastating Grand Bahama today, no info really coming out of there at all.. I started the local conditions thread here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=100518&gonew=1#UNREAD
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