Archives 2020s >> 2021 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Mindy in the Gulf while Lumbering Larry Likely Passing Bermuda
      #114016 - Tue Sep 07 2021 03:45 PM

4:45PM CDT 8 September 2021 Update
Invest 91L has tightened up at the surface throughout the afternoon and upon coming in closer to radar and fortuitously passing a buoy that showed indeed a solid cyclonic rotation of tropical storm force as the surface, 91L went directly to Tropical Storm Mindy with its first Advisory issued by the Hurricane Center at 4PM CT.
Quote:

Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.





12:45PM CDT 8 September 2021 Update
Invest 91L is still lacking a well-defined surface circulation, but does appear to have an increasingly robust one at mid-levels, and several models continue to expect a surface center will establish prior to landfall. Thus, for now, 91L remains a coin toss system as to whether or not it becomes a Tropical Cyclone prior to moving inland, but heavy and potentially flooding rain and strong thunderstorms will probably be the most widespread consequence, regardless.

If it does not become a Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclone before entering the Florida panhandle either later tonight or Thursday morning, 91L could have another shot upon exiting the southeast coast later this week into the weekend.

Original Entry

Image credit: Weathernerds.org

Invest 91L has some potential to become a wet Depression or Storm of either a Tropical or Sub-Tropical variety within the next 48 hours, and those along the northeastern Gulf and southeastern US could see a day or few of blustery wet weather and dangerous rip currents as a result. There is even an outside chance of more significant development. 91L warrants paying attention to regardless.

In the western Atlantic, annular Hurricane Larry is now forecast to approach and pass to the east of Bermuda while recurving out to sea and possibly giving Newfoundland a brush later along the way. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda in preparation for the potential of storm conditions within the next 48 hours there, and the Canadian Hurricane Center is keeping track for potential impacts on Newfoundland in the Thur-Sat time frame.

NHC:
Quote:

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.





Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Mindy Forecast Lounge



Mindy Event Related Links


float13latest.gif stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Mindy
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Mindy


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Mindy (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Mindy (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Mindy

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Mindy
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Mindy -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Larry Forecast Lounge


Larry Event Related Links


float12latest.gif stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Larry
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Larry


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Larry (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Larry (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Larry

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Larry
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Larry -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 08 2021 06:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 2426

Rate this topic

Jump to

Mobile Home - Login - Normal Flhurricane Site
This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Generated March 29, 2024, 6:20:21 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center