cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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A number of us toss our best guesses in the ring each year as to what we think season totals will end up being. As a group, we tend to do surprisingly well!
Then of course we all also follow the professional seasonal forecasts from Colorado State, The Weather Channel, UKMET, etc.
Overall, most agencies are already predicting a very active season.
At the time of our contest, with voting ending on the day before the official start of the season, I personally went with what was in my mind a possibly conservative range of 16-22 Depressions, 14-19 Storms, 6-9 Hurricanes and 3-5 Majors. It was too early in the year for me to want to jump a gun out of some historical constraints I put on my own best guesses every year. Nonetheless, those are already hyperactive season numbers.
But as June progressed and I have only seen more and more confirmation of the potential for a doozy of a season, it got me thinking we all might want to discuss the season, our guesses, and even post some thoughts on where we think things are going *now*
If it's good enough for the pros to update several times a season, why not talk about where we think things are headed.
So here it is, an opportunity to discuss the 2022 season as it and our own forecasts progress.
Season forecasts from some of the top agencies at the time of this post are as follows:
Cr. Wikipedia
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Compared to where I was May 31st to where I am today, June 24, I'm leaning in to calling for a season that has echos of some of our extremely active seasons, with both 2020 and 2005 as somewhat analogous. A couple of the reasons for this include unusually favorable conditions even early on in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the potential for very favorable conditions for both development and Rapid Intensification in portions of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there is reason to believe that conditions for development in the sub-tropical Atlantic could be above to even much above average.
If I was pressed to give an update to my pre-season, constrained guess of 16-22 Depressions, 14-19 Storms, 6-9 Hurricanes and 3-5 Majors, I would now be at 20-24 Depressions, 18-22 Storms, 9-13 Hurricanes and 4-7 Majors, with a risk of even this being on the low end. The reason for the dramatic increase has to do with all the confirmation I have seen that the constraints I apply early on probably should not be applied this year, and without those constraints, the numbers come in to much more alignment with our most hyperactive years.
What say you?
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 295
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Here say me...
Though July climo historically last relatively quite month before August ramps up, I'm not sure if Saharan dust and lack of moisture this month in the east/central Atlantic is the culprit for how quite the last 3-4 weeks (and potintially the next 2 weeks) have been. It appears to me that a dominant and stubborn Azores high is decapitating convection emerging off the African coast and depressing SST's in the seeding ground for tropical waves in the east-central Atlantic. I keep looking for this pattern to change in the medium range forecast models, but see no indication into the second week in August.
That said, the central and western Caribbean, as well as the entire GOMEX, should be open for business should a wave survive a week's trek in the MDR. I'm still backing the conservative call made in May, with a gut feeling the heart of the season (3rd week of August into early October) could be crazy busy... .
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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I haven't had the time to really deep dive into a good explanation as to why the season has tremendously under-performed implied activity for the season-to-date, and long range forecasting is definitely not easy, nor my best capability, but I do give it a good bit of effort every season.
My take-away thus far to summarize: conditions provide the dice (probabilities/potential), but there are always other variables, if not outright chaos, that can roll a "10" out of five six-sided dice.
My best guess in our season contest was tempered by hard and fast data going back decades to suggest that this year would probably be busy, yet limited. However, as in my OP here, there were other things that began looking locked in to making casting aside such guardrails look like the better call. At the moment, that has looked foolhardy. At least for all the egg on my face, I'm in some pretty stellar company hah!
All that said, and wow, given the past few weeks, I might regret saying this, but it "does now look more likely than not" that the next couple of weeks have a window opening up for serious storms and possibly several names, before it might ease up again during the back half of September. We shall see.
One thing I have noticed is that the MDR, being far less conducive than expected during July and August, and certainly that blast of convection-killing Saharan Air had to have played a role, is that this allowed a region of the east pac that wasn't truly in a La Nina state, both in the ocean and the air, to go bonkers. Sending more shear (and less favorable conditions for development in the Atlantic) over this way. Rinse. Repeat. Rinse. Repeat. La Nina East Pac sets records. La Nina Atlantic looked like an El Nino was underway.
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FACEandHRT
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 6
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It's over for this hurricane season buddy boyos
It's over
Pretty bold call. Can you please explain your reasoning and not just a random one or two-liner? Thanks, Face! - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 01 2022 02:22 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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What a difference a month can make.
With the addition of Ian, 2022 has officially gone from the dustbin of Atlantic hurricane seasons to catching up to an average year's ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) to now in some ways even rhyming with prior hyperactive years, and unfortunately, putting Florida right back on the hurricane map.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, notes the following: "The last time that the Atlantic had four named storms (e.g., tropical storms or hurricanes) simultaneously was on September 18, 2020 (Teddy, Wilfred, Alpha, Beta)," also, "(Ian) is forecast to be a major, Category 3, hurricane with max winds of 115 mph approaching southwest Florida in 5 days. The most recent landfalling Florida major hurricane is Michael (Category 5, 2018)." And with Ian forming in the central Caribbean, it has become "the 6th Atlantic named storm to form this month. Since 1950, 8 other years have had 6+ Atlantic named storms form between September 1-23: 1971, 1988, 2002, 2010, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021."
Here are the totals for those years:
1971: 22* Depressions, 13 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 1 Major. 1971 was a La Niña year during a quiet phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for Cat 5 Edith and Cat 2 Ginger. The last storm that year formed on November 12.
1988: 19* Depressions, 12 Storms, 5 Hurricanes, 3 Majors. 1988 was a strong La Niña year during the quiet phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for Category 5 Hurricane Gilbert, that held the record for fastest deepening of an Atlantic hurricane until that record was broken by in 2005. The last storm that year formed on November 17.
2002: 14 Depressions, 12 Storms, 4 Hurricanes, 2 Majors. 2002 was a moderate El Niño year during the active phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for Cat 4 Hurricane Lili. The last storm that year formed on October 14.
2010: 21 Depressions, 19 Storms, 12 Hurricanes, 5 Majors. 2010 was a strong La Niña year during the active phase of the Atlantic. The season was perhaps most remembered for having so many Majors stay out to sea. The last storm that year formed on October 29.
2018: 16 Depressions, 15 Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 2 Majors. 2018 was an El Niño year during the active phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for Cat 4 Florence and Cat 5 Michael. The last storm that year formed on October 26.
2019: 20 Depressions, 18 Names, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Majors. 2019 was neutral during the active phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for Cat 5 Dorian. The last storm that year formed on November 19.
2020: 31 Depressions, 30 Storms, 14 Hurricanes, 7 Majors. 2020 was a La Niña year during the active phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for being the most active season on record in the Atlantic basin. The last storm that year formed on November 13, which became Cat 4 Iota.
2021: 21 Depressions, 21 Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Majors. 2021 was a La Niña year during the active phase of the Atlantic. The season was most remembered for Cat 4 Ida that struck southeastern Louisiana 16 years to the day after did. The last storm that year formed on October 31.
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