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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropics Slowly Starting to Wake Up
      #114614 - Thu Aug 03 2023 08:21 PM

9PM EDT 15 August 2023 Update
There's a area worth watching closer to home for early (Tue/Wed) of next week in Texas, the area is a wave with squelched convection near the Leeward islands currently that could move into an area favorable for development this weekend, although it's unlikely it will have time to develop into much, but an area like this should be watched closely because sometimes models miss the quick systems like this. It's a reminder for those along the gulf to be hurricane ready, even if it doesn't develop into much. Texas does need the rain. 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

The other areas east of there both have a 30% chance to develop.

Additionally in the Eastern Pacific Invest 90E needs to be highlighted as it could impact Baja and Southern California (somewhere between San Diego and Los Angeles) early next week. If named, it would be called Hillary.

8AM EDT 14 August 2023 Update
To start off the week, two areas of interest are in the Atlantic after nearly a two week period of nothing. The area closer to the Central Atlantic has a 20% chance to develop while the one closer to Africa has a 30% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Both of these are more likely to develop late in the week rather than early. However it appears next week may be quite a bit more active in about 10 days. There's still quite a bit working against these systems, so one or both may not develop as well. However the overall pattern is shifting toward climatology into next week. The pattern that's kept Florida in an excessive heat wave will finally start to shift on Wednesday, but it also starts to open the door for more tropical activity. Nothing in particular other than these two waves, but the last week and a half of August will need to be watched closely.

Original Update

There is nothing on the horizon in the Tropical Atlantic in the next 7 days. Beyond this is a bit still soon to tell. But it's likely we won't have much to track until 8-10 days from now. There is a wave in the Eastern Atlantic (and another over Africa behind it) that can be watched, but sinking and dry air are still inhibiting development. There is higher probability for systems to exist in the Atlantic in the last 10 days of August.

The later half of August is when the season typically ramps up. You may remember last year there were no named storms in August, this year is unlikely to remain that way. However at least in about 8-10 days the area to watch for development is closer toward the US. But there is no solid support for development currently.

The East Pacific has Major Hurricane Dora and another area, while Typhoon Khanun is near Japan.

We'll be watching and updating if anything changes.

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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Slow Start to August in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #114616 - Thu Aug 10 2023 09:47 PM

There's a (Very unlikely to develop) area near the Bahamas that I've added a new radar recording for of the Bahamas Radar.


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