General Discussion >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

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Loc: Austin, Tx
Gert Lounge
      #114623 - Sat Aug 19 2023 03:54 PM

Invest 99L located about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles has been a borderline Tropical Depression for the better part of 18 hours and recently has begun organizing even more. With this latest round of betterment, NHC has updated the afternoon TWO to reflect thinking that it may be upgraded to an official Tropical Depression later today.

There has been some understandable hesitation for upgrading, given that it has been facing some shear and nearby dry air, with tepid model support. However, the models are likely doing a lackluster job of handling the relatively small tropical cyclone due to its size and lack of good input data for a feature so far out in open waters.

NHC odds for classification have gone up to 70%, arguably very conservative, and there seems to be a chance that 99L will not only be added to the data base in real-time as a T.D., but that it could earn a name as well. While it may be more likely to be a short-lived system, models on 99L should be taken with a grain of salt.

Given its increasingly closer proximity to land and that the system is for all practical intents and purposes already a Tropical Cyclone, we are starting a Lounge on it now.

Edit: 99L has been upgraded to TD SIX and now at 12AM August 21st the cyclone has been upgraded to Gert.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 21 2023 12:57 AM)

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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114624 - Sat Aug 19 2023 03:59 PM

Advisories are being prepared on TD SIX (99L) in the central Tropical Atlantic The title and Lounge will be updated as warranted.

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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114632 - Tue Aug 22 2023 07:42 AM

For what it's worth, the links for Gert have never worked for me. My guess is that it may be showing me things related to another Gert some other time and place.

When I click on either the map or the words above it in the "Current Storms" column, the "TD Gert Spotlight (2023)" that comes up has two big blank squares where I'd expect and the two things that do load are comically wrong.

The picture says Water Vapor Loop, has a very strange looking land shown superimposed on the clouds. If I open that the top reads:
Last Checked: 02:01 pm 19-Jan-2023 EDT. Last Updated: 07:11 pm 17-Jan-2023 EDT

Below that, what appears to be model runs, the times are all dated the 17th or 18th, both of which were before Gert even existed, and the geographic area on the map appears to be the far northeastern tip of Canada. That map is dated 18 Jan 01:36 EST.

Whatever automatic links are there appear to be pointing to the wrong place.

It has been this way since Gert was named

Retired engineer who still has more hobbies and interests than time.

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