FLHurricane.com: Major Update: Idalia & Franklin

Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL102023
515 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**IDALIA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal
Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, Coastal Sarasota, Inland
Citrus, and Pinellas
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Hernando, Inland
Hillsborough, Inland Levy, Inland Manatee, Inland Pasco, Inland
Sarasota, and Sumter
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for DeSoto, Hardee, Inland
Charlotte, Inland Lee, and Polk

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 540 miles south-southwest of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL or
about 500 miles south-southwest of Fort Myers FL
- 20.1N 85.2W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Idalia continues to intensify off of the Yucatan
Coast this morning. Idalia is forecast to move north and eventually
northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, making its way towards
the Florida peninsula and intensifying to a major hurricane. Watches
remain in effect for West Central and Southwest Florida and adjacent
coastal waters.

The following are the primary hazards of concern with Idalia:

* Wind - Winds will increase Tuesday and remain gusty even after the
storm passes into Thursday. Hurricane force winds are possible across
much of the area and should be what residents prepare for, with
tropical storm force winds possible across the southern zones.

* Storm Surge - Areas across the Nature Coast are forecast
to see extreme life-threatening levels of storm surge, with
life-threatening surge also possible across west-central Florida.
The main period of coastal flooding looks to occur Tuesday afternoon
through early Thursday.

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall Tuesday and Wednesday. A slight to moderate risk
for flooding is possible, mainly along the coast and across the
northern zones. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher
amounts up to 12 inches is possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay region. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible limited to
extensive impacts across Southwest Florida.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts along the Nature Coast. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts across Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Nature Coast. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across West-Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and boats tossed about. Dangerous
projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Southwest Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe
shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL102023
534 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This product covers East Central Florida

**Tropical Storm Idalia Forecast to Strengthen into a Hurricane as
it Moves Into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico Later Today**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange, Osceola, and
Seminole

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange,
Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 640 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL
- 20.1N 85.2W - Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Tropical Storm Idalia is located around 125 miles
south of the tip of western Cuba early this morning. Idalia is
moving north at about 7 mph, with a continued northward motion
expected today and Tuesday. The storm is currently forecast to
approach the Florida Gulf coast Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
major hurricane.
Preparations should be ongoing for at least tropical storm
conditions by mid week.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange
and Osceola Counties, where confidence is highest in tropical storm
conditions occurring. Additional watches may be necessary for
portions of east-central Florida later this morning.

Showers, squalls and thunderstorms associated with outer rain bands
from Idalia may reach central Florida by late this afternoon, with
conditions further deteriorating Tuesday afternoon and evening as
Idalia accelerates north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. As coverage of showers and squalls increases Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday, the possibility of strong to damaging wind
gusts will also increase. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to
extend outward from the storm's center, potentially reaching
interior portions of east-central Florida Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
Based on the current forecast track, Idalia will make its closest
pass to east-central Florida late Tuesday night and early Wednesday
morning, continuing northeastward during the day on Wednesday.

While the heaviest rainfall from Idalia is currently forecast to
fall along the Gulf Coast and western Florida Peninsula, gusty
squalls will be capable of torrential downpours, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday over Lake County. One to two inches of rain from
Monday afternoon through Wednesday night is expected for coastal
areas and Okeechobee County and two to four inches are expected west
of I-95 from Brevard and Osceola Counties northward, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Locations in closer proximity to the center of Idalia, such as Lake
County in east-central Florida, may receive higher rainfall totals.

In addition to strong wind gusts, a threat for tornadoes is forecast
to develop as the center of Idalia moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Incoming swell from Hurricane Franklin combined with winds from
Idalia will lead to high seas, rough surf, an increase in life-
threatening rip currents, and beach erosion Tuesday into Wednesday.

Do not let your guard down, especially in locations outside of the
current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from Idalia will be felt far
from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your
hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place.

As Idalia becomes better organized through this afternoon,
additional changes to the current forecast are possible. Eastward
shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for local
impacts, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne,
Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts
in this area include:

- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes
damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects
become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having
possible significant impacts across portions of east central
Florida. Potential impacts include:

- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible
significant impacts across portions of east central Florida.
Potential impacts include:

- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of
emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* SURGE: Direct surge impacts from Idalia are not currently
anticipated at this time. However, larger swells and surf combined
with Hurricane Franklin will bring a threat for minor coastal
flooding and beach erosion.Locations more vulnerable to coastal
flooding and beach erosion, such as portions of the Volusia County
coast, should stay updated on the latest forecasts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Listen to local official for recommended preparedness
actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do
so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your
emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary
actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be
concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The
onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain
preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi

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