FLHurricane.com: Nicholas Hangs On

Tuesday Evening Update

Nicholas has now survived as a Tropical Storm for a week and is at least 7 degrees farther west than originally forecast. Most of the models have been doing a poor job of handling the long range forecast for this system. Seems like at least two or three troughs were supposed to capture the storm and pull it northbound - but they didn't - at least not yet.

The storm has re-energized considerably in the past 12 hours and the center may be reforming under the near 18.2N 51.2W - at least low level banding suggests this. Short term motion is once again to the west northwest - at a crawl. Given his tenacity, intensification is still a possibility.

Original Post

Nicholas is now in his fourth day as a Tropical Storm. Westerly shear has again exposed the low level center and shoved the small area of convection to the east. Latest intensity from HNC of 55 knots is overly generous - probably more like 45 knots. Shear is forecast to remain just to the north and west of the center for the next couple of days and the system may have started an anticyclonic loop as forecast by one of the BAM models a day or two ago. Nicholas may have peaked yesterday morning when a weak eye attempted to form - and promptly fell apart. It now seems like it would be quite a struggle for this system to regain its former strength. Although it is not a strong system, it still retains excellent banding. If he stalls or completes a tight loop, upwelling may eventually enter the intensity equation (if it hasn't already). Trying to figure out where the system will be in about 4 days at 22/12Z (assuming that it remains intact until then). My guess would be at 19N 51W at about 40 knots. Anyone else want to give it a try?
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Oct 21 2003 08:19 PM)