FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Odette

Well this one is not typical thats for sure, but here goes. TS Odette is certainly an unusual storm to cap an unusual season. Forecast models (ANY model) for a December northern hemisphere tropical system usually provide more hinderance than guidance - thus the best starting point is to ignore them.

Odette is centered under an upper level anticyclone and the upper high is expected to remain nearly stationary through the weekend with some elongation of the high to the northeast over the Dominican Republic. Southwesterly shear west of the high and northeasterly shear east of the high, but Odette is centered under the high where shear is nil. The southern jetstream over Florida is expected to move southeastward, but weaken as it does so, and elongate into a more zonal configuration from Cuba to Puerto Rico.

As long as Odette continues to pulse with periods of a , she will be more influenced by the upper level flow and I'm having some difficulty with the anticipated northeastward projection. I think that Odette will remain 'trapped' under the upper level anticyclone and the projected winds south of the main islands are expected to be light westerly through the weekend.

With the northeast storm pulling northward, I'll get a bit gutsy and suggest that Odette will move slowly to the east northeast over the weekend and remain south of the islands. Since this projection would keep the system away from any significant shear, the system should pulse up in intensity during the night and weaken a bit during the day for the next couple of days - with a general trend toward slow intensification for the next 36 hours. I just don't see the trough to the north capturing the system - at least not yet.

10PM Update

With additional time this evening for further analysis, a mid-level center has persisted well to the east of the low level circulation. Binary interaction with this mid-level center could promote more of a northeasterly trajectory than I had anticipated earlier, but forward speed is still expected to be rather slow. If the forward motion remains slow, some small intensification is still possible with SSTs around 28C. It is worth noting that over the past 6 hours, storm motion has been 070 degrees at 10 knots.

Puerto Rico and the northern islands still need to keep a close watch on this system. I haven't checked the records (and its an understatement) but this must certainly be one of the longest north Atlantic tropical seasons on record.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 05 2003 11:31 PM)