Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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An active tropical wave is located east of Trinidad and Tobago near 10.5N 57W at 15/02Z. The system has pulsed with periods of convective activity as it moved across the Atlantic. No circulation is currently evident. The tropical wave is located in an area of light northerly shear and the shear should remain light for the next few days. Brisk low-level easterly flow around the Atlantic ridge is speeding the system westward at 25-30mph while upper-level currents are just about non-existent. With this scenario, development does not seem likely - anything that gets started in the lower levels will outrun itself as it builds to the upper levels. Beyond the next two or three days the system should slow down as the easterlies weaken, and if it still holds together, it would stand a better chance for development at that time.
Cheers,
ED
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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It has no circulation, none. That's the biggest problem. Well, could have some color also. Understand conditions may improve. Its moving too fast, on the other hand shear is lighter there than it has been. Water is hot enough. Don't think it has it in it to spin and organize, has a murky look to it. But, I'm still looking at it.
Good discussion, thanks.
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