LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I think that if decides to issue watches at 11:00, they're pretty sure it's a FL hit. If there are no watches, they're either unsure of landfall OR may have it making the northward turn.
I'd still stick with the official track, and whatever track they have progged at 11:00.
I'm not going to issue the sure-to-be-crow-munching forecast tonight. Far too much uncertainty still...gut says Nward turn but realistically (for now) somewhere in the Melbourne area (sorry Ed). This is one of the most difficult to forecast storms I've ever seen...especially for a CV storm, which are usually fairly predictable. Hope all you floridians are prepped and ready to evac if told to do so, and that your dwellings are as protected as can be. Hopefully it will all be for naught.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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For all of you late prepairers.......... Lowe's and Home Depot ship "hurricane pallets" (batteries, lumber, etc) on a regular basis when there is a hurricane baring down.
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Kelly
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Yeah, I forgot that part too. Running at about 60%. Tweleve hour days. Sinus infection, Upper resperitory infection and having to clear debris and get ready to board up tomorrow. I'm wiped out.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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He explains the options that he thinks will play out with , on where it might go and why...... I highly recommend everyone read it to help you understand the complicated dynamics involved ... sorry Phil, he thinks the Space Coast, like yours truly, could be ground zero..
http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html
you may not agree with his forecast, but you will appreciate how he explains his rationale for his reasoning ...
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I hear that indeed the watches will go up at 11pm
--Lou
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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From
There SUPER Ensemble package that detects landfall near Vero Beach with re emergence near Tampa into the Gulf and re landfall as a 3 west of Tallahassee
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Where'd did you find that out; and as text or a graphic?
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Seems like could use the extra six hours before issuing the watches. Timing is a big concern, especially if doesn't slow down as much as the models/fcst say it will. If it does slow down as fcst over central and north Florida, there's gonna be a lot of flooding. My big question continues to be: who evacuates and where do they all go? Perhaps that's part of the reason why some schools are closed tomorrow, so they can start getting shelters ready.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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You're not quite right on that, not with the intensity at all. But that's all I'll say.
Access to the Superensemble is limited to the & community; everyone else has to pay for it. The 0z run may have just come out, but usually isn't completed until 10-11p.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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FSU Superensemble is not available publically. However, it has been a pretty reliable model this year. That move does nothing for my confidence. :P The only time I am rooting against vs a cane!
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Brett Adair
Unregistered
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Hello....new to the boards. Well, I just got some information from a student that tells me that a dropsonde was faulty and the models were off for a few days. So now, they have a super ensemble which detects lanfall near Vero Beach and a re emergence near Tampa Bay with a secondary landfalling west of Tallahassee. Looks pretty scary to me...
-Brett Adair-
WBRC-FOX6 Chaser
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Right - Thanks
Thank you as well, Jason.
Edited by ShaggyDude (Wed Sep 01 2004 09:57 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The Superensemble is very closely held...there is no public access to it...in fact, the only ones who have access are those in the met dept, and . I'd give my eyeteeth for access myself.
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Jason Kelley
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RockledgeRick
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Space Coast, FL
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Here we go again! Much of the Space Coast residents are doing a full scale evac over to Tampa. Most people I talk to are leaving in the morning. NOW we're gonna hear a new path tonight that takes it through TAMPA?! Am I hearing you right? This is maddening!
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Been through Agnes, Erin, Irene, Dennis, Floyd, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, TS Fay, Matthew
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nppam
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: North Port, Florida
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I agree looking at all the models makes one's head spin after a while, however, can anyone tell me where I can look at the superensemble model? The site wants a password to gain access. Is that model available elsewhere? Just curious, since I've looked at so many of the other models. I'm in North Port, Fl on west coast (thank God) about 15-20 miles from 's path. Got fingers, toes, legs, arms crossed looking for that northward turn (sorry Carolinas).
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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The superensemble didn't fcst to move inland south of Tampa - in fact, many models were trending west of Tampa less than 24 hours before actual landfall. Anyone in "the cone" needs to be prepared for some impact from .
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'd like to re-ask a question that was asked a while ago, I'm hoping someone answers. How can us laypeople *see* the ridge, and tell if it is breaking down or holding up? I have now figured out how to read the ULL fairly well (or at least I think so), but I can't figure out how to see the ridge.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Brett,
You and I know each other, but I don't see any way that one bad dropsonde could contaminate the models for days...I am very dubious of that...Clark? Comments?
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Jason Kelley
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The hurricane stuff isn't on that website at all. Additionally, access to that website (for the global products) is password-protected, and there is a fee involved. The group behind the model went into business marketing it's products and development a couple of years ago and make a pretty penny from the government and other agencies based upon its information.
You can get some info off of discussions or if someone here mentions it, but there have been issues with that recently and thus why I no longer mention it to any great detail in my discussions/posts.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I'll repeat what I said the other night when someone asked about where to evac to. If you want to be safe, go to Kansas. Maybe that sounded like a joke, but it wasn't.
Actually what we are being told is to evac within your own county, to higher ground and a safer structure. But don't leave the county, makes sense, there is no way the millions of people that live here could actually leave.
Bill
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