Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Invest covers an area near and south of 28N 74W. Convection is building along this tropical wave and development can occur rapidly in this area. Shear is light northeasterly and will not be an inhibiting factor. SSTs are high, and upper level winds suggest a slow westerly and eventually northwesterly movement which could bring the system into the Florida east coast by afternoon/evening on Labor Day. Residents along the Florida east coast should monitor this system closely over the weekend and be ready to make quick preparations should this system develop into something significant. For now, its just something to be aware of.
ED
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I agree Ed. I believe we could see some slow development over the next couple of days, but nothing rapid. However, depending greatly on what happens today, something may well spin up quickly. There always seems to be something on or around Labor Day...and this year it is 94L.
Also there is an impressive tropical wave emerging off of the African Coast. I believe we could see slow development over the next couple of days, but after Dolly, nothing is ever set in stone with Cape Verde storms
Kevin
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Convection refiring again and structure still looks good. As is often the case with developing systems, this one has three areas competing for the center. I've been following the southernmost one and in the past 6 hours it has been moving to the west northwest at 12mph. At 18Z this focal point was located at 27.3N 75.2W and at 21Z it was at 27.5N 75.8W. Keep in mind that if the system develops, any one of the three focal points (or yet another one) could eventully become the center point. Pressure would seem to be about 1012mb and the winds are probably 25 knots. Not a TD yet - but it seems to be getting there. Anyone along the coast from Melbourne to Wilmington should check on the status of this system from time to time over the holiday weekend..
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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|
TD-5 is regenerating rather nicely again...and it still maintains two separate centers of rotation. is following the northern one, but I've been tracking the southern one for the past 30 hours. At 03Z, the southern center was located at 28.8N 78.5W - it had been moving to the WNW, but its just about stationary now. No reliable steering currents for this system, except perhaps one. Its not the trough to the north - that trough has missed its chance and is beginning to slowly pull back to the north, however, a weak high pressure aloft off the SW Florida coast may have started to influence the movement of TD-5. Convection is really beginning to build to the south of even the southern center and the Depression could begin to drift to the southeast or even south (some of you detected this apparent retrogression eastward earlier this evening). This system might hang around for awhile - which unfortunately would give it more time to organize and intensify. Its structure seems to indicate that its already at minimum tropical storm strength.
Short note on TS Dolly: An upper level low near 25N 59W is moving northeastward and should capture Dolly shortly and move it off to the north.
Cheers,
ED
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