Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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12Z is much closer to the West Coast of Florida than previous 00Z Model.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Latest (12z) trends east of the previous run, though still west (panhandle/big bend) of most models.
Just curious, how often does run the Super Ensemble?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Looking elongated in this pic:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
What does that mean? Someone posted last week about F. that it means that the storm will be shifting in that direction.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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alley
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Please give my thanks to Thomas. Do you or Thomas or anyone else know what the storm surge would be for Tampa Bay if touches the coast while heading north and what the surge would be if we take a direct hit? I've had no luck using Google finding answers to these questions. Local mets do mention storm surge but only that it will occur...of course, I may have missed that info if it was given because I'm channel hopping while surfing the 'Net.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Hmm...I think I see what's happening here. The former TD 10 is moving almost due west. This movement has caused the high pressure ridge to the east of Florida to build further west/southwest. I know that this system had been forecast to move more SSE, and probably wasn't going to affect the high pressure ridge too much, but currently it seems to be responsible for pushing the ridge further and further over Florida.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 10 2004 01:53 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This should give you an idea of surge flooding from a CAT III...not good.
Also shows Pensacola & PCB regions
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Fletch5150
Unregistered
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The ridge was forecast to build across FL today and tonight. The upper level low between 50 and 60 is going to ride the southern periphery of the high and begin to erode the ridge in 24-48 hours. This is what should start the NW - NNW - N motion. The timing of the upper low arrival is critical. The lates Vapor loop shows some western progress of the low.
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alley
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Thanks LI Phil. Guess I can kiss my house goodbye before we leave...not bending over to kiss the other.
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Sam33
Unregistered
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WOW......they now have goes east in super rapid scan....looks like every min or two...... amazing sat pics....looks like the will pass over the southern side of jamica....don't think it will miss the island
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Norm in Canada
Unregistered
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An observation from a fire weather forecaster in the frozen North. There has been some discussion about Cuba's topography and its ability to affect intensity....In western Cuba the highest peaks are 300m (the projected path of ). In central Cuba the highest peak is 1100m. In eastern Cuba the highest peak is 1800m. Bottom line is that there is little to no potential for topography to influence the intensity of this storm. Jamaica is the same story. Intensity will be a function of eyewall replacement, shear and SSTs.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
This is first post on site. Have been on site for 2 weeks now and just want to thank all for info and to keep up the good work. My questions is if goes over eastern Jamaica wont the mts there rip storm apart. If im right mts are as much as 7500 feet high there. It just seems like that terrain would do quite a bit of damage to storm. Again thanks to all who help site as good as it is.
Given the small size of Jamaica compared to the robust size of , it won't do much to weaken him. The center of would not be over Jamaica for a long period of time. Cuba has a better chance of disrupting things if moves more towards central Cuba. If he passes through the Isle of Youth like , Cuba won't weaken him that much either.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mobile 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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You can almost see where this thing is headed by looking at this... http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sti...amp;overlay=off
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
Mobile
How are you getting these maps? Can someone point me in that direction or provide me with a of Manatee County hit? My area is just south of the Tampa info already provided. My home is located directly on Palma Sola Bay.
Thanks!
Bev
Google...I'll try to find one for your area
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 01:35 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Sorry, but you're getting some wrong information again. The Superensemble has never called for a landfall west of Pensacola; in fact, the 12Z run today is the first one that even brings it to landfall...and I'll tell you this much: it's 200+ miles from Pensacola, and not west.
The Superensemble has consistantly been on the left hand side of the track guidance. The official is almost directly over the , the ensemble mean, and the GUNA (GFDL, UKMET, , AVN) consensus. Both have track errors from of just 150mi. at 5 days, a very low error and both by far the best. Superensemble says Panhandle, says Tampa...we'll see what happens.
But I can assure you and everyone out there that it does not say west of Pensacola, and never has.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
The ridge was forecast to build across FL today and tonight. The upper level low between 50 and 60 is going to ride the southern periphery of the high and begin to erode the ridge in 24-48 hours.
The low you are referring to is what I was referring to as the remnants of TD 10. From what I had seen/read it was supposed to track more SSE, and not due west like it is currently doing. From what I see this due west movement has served to build the ridge further south than what I had seen forecasted. Truthfully I am surprised to see the ridge build almost to Cuba as it has this afternoon. Obviously a lot can change in just a matter of hours, and the ridge can retreat just as quick as it strengthened. However, it bears close watching as it will have a firsthand impact on where tracks.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 10 2004 01:54 PM)
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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Mobile
How are you getting these maps? Can someone point me in that direction or provide me with a of Manatee County hit? My area is just south of the Tampa info already provided. My home is located directly on Palma Sola Bay.
Thanks!
Bev
Google...I'll try to find one for your area
I used to live on Anna Marie Island. I fear that a at 3 would devastate that island
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Good link. and TD 10 are connected by a flow. Is there a name for this....what impact on track? Sorry, guys, I have a lot more questions than answers.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It is run every 6 hrs.
As an aside, confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves, but I'm still sticking to my guns there...as is the Superensemble, like it has for 3 days now.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Fletch5150
Unregistered
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If my memory is correct, I think they run it every 24 hours. The data collection and input takes between 10-16 hours. By the way the history of the ensemble has a 225+ mile error at 5 days.
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