52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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those are excellent photos, unbelievable devastation!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Not sure if anyone saw MSN's idea of destruction and devastation.
http://cagle.slate.msn.com/news/Hurricanes/main.asp
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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There's a video link just below the radar picture. Kind of hard to see.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It is worth noting that the official forecast track has an average 5-day error of 429 miles with Jeanne. The AVN has been the best performer, with an average 5-day error of just 150 miles. None of the other models I'm looking at have come close; next closest is the 5-day climatology & persistence (CLIPER) model at 261 miles at 5 days, which shows you how bad things have been.
Nonetheless, I've attached a plot I created with StormTrakker 6 (beta) depicting all available model runs of Jeanne. I've noted a few of the big ones on the map itself. There is a small cluster of models that turns the system off of the Florida coast, a much larger grouping that turns the system very near the Florida coast or over the state itself, and another small grouping that takes the storm across the state into the Gulf.
Of note is the AVN path, which is a hybrid of ' until you get to Osceola County and 's thereafter through Orlando and out to sea again, as well as the path, which skirts almost the Space & First Coasts. The BAM-series consensus is also noted, which probably isn't needed, but shows a path across the state.
Based upon the available guidance, I'd expect the track to be shifted a bit further to the left at 11pm. Note that all of these model runs are from 9/22 12Z, 9/22 18Z, or 9/23 00Z, depending upon the model.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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When you apply the latest forecast points on the Infrared Loop.... Dvorak Infrared Loop ....you get a sick feeling that Jeanne is just smiling evilly at us.
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It looks like storms are trying to fire up pretty close around the center of . He just doesn't seem to want to die.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
When you apply the latest forecast points on the Infrared Loop.... Dvorak Infrared Loop ....you get a sick feeling that Jeanne is just smiling evilly at us.
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
Wow, a female cyclops...now I really know we're in need of a little voodoo...this thing ain't human!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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I love tracking storms, but I can honestly say, I am ready for winter! I have been staying up way too late waiting for the 11pm updates and later model runs. I get up early before work to run and lift...and this is just wearing on me! I am sure others can relate.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
Edited by h2ocean (Wed Sep 22 2004 10:18 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New Orleans Nexrad Wind Profiler is indicating maximum winds, in the radar coverage area, have increased to 40kts at 3000 to 5000ft above ground level.
Winds are from the ESE from the surface to 26,000ft. At 28,000ft the wind (shear) is from the South at 5kts, increasing to 35kt southerly winds at 40,000ft.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
Of note is the AVN path, which is a hybrid of ' until you get to Osceola County and 's thereafter through Orlando and out to sea again
Trust me, I noticed that one. It looks like a goto this house and turn right. With the arrow pointing at my house. Of course, it is getting to be old hat this season. Just crossing fingers that the models will shift back east tomorrow.
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Jim
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Every single cain close to Florida this year has been forcast to the right but the cain went left of the forcast track except the day of landfall (most cases).
I would bet (based on the above) that Jeanne continues on a more left track meaning central florida up could see her wrath.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
I love tracking storms, but I can honestly say, I am ready for winter! I have been staying up way too late waiting for the 11pm updates and later model runs. I get up early before work to run and lift...and this is just wearing on me! I am sure others can relate.
My body wakes up every day between 4:55 and 5:10 to catch the new advisory. No alarm needed. I'm not liking that!!
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
[
Trust me, I noticed that one. It looks like a goto this house and turn right. With the arrow pointing at my house. Of course, it is getting to be old hat this season. Just crossing fingers that the models will shift back east tomorrow.
One really good thing abut it pointing at your hous 5 days out: So far this season at least, whatever it pointed at 5 days out has been relatively dry and calm. To counter balance the warm fuzzy feeling that brings, all year it seems that the models all shift left (read West) much more than right....That means it probably *will* go over your house on the way to mine....Oh well. Que Sierra Sierra
Hey, ! I really need those maps if I'm gonna get Friday off to move my stuff back to my boss's garage...again! I'm afraid Saturday will be too late....it'll be raining by then and a tad windy....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Hey, ! I really need those maps if I'm gonna get Friday off to move my stuff back to my boss's garage...again! I'm afraid Saturday will be too late....it'll be raining by then and a tad windy....
Patience...
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Richard,
Like many of us, staying up WAY past the normal beddy-bye time has become the norm...now I need to see Skeeter's maps as well.
I'm sure as soon as the 11:00's come out, he'll have them for us.
Must be the season of the witch...(bonus points)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
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Will hurricane center reitire or not ?
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Please help the less experienced.
Does that translate to alot of shearing going on or does it mean something else?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Patience...
You must be kidding! Right?
After this season we'll have our own wing, at a hospital, where we'll be patients.
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2004 10:34 PM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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They can't retire him until he dies...
watch him go inland at Texas, turn east and come back off the East Coast....lol....we'll still be tracking in November
--Lou
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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dude,
how can you even ask that? I can't believe they even brought the name back to begin with.
RETIRED!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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