Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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So do you think it will not turn and stay west all the way?
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Oh, Phil...I'm with you on that one. I do NOT like what I see. That northern door is about to get slammed shut.  And to the north of Jeanne, it's STARTING to push her even FASTER westward.
I think the increase in forward speed has begun. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
While the ridge continues to pound down on Jeanne and keep her moving west...her own outflow is preventing the trof from sliding further east...
Damn wv...I don't like what I'm seeing in terms of any recurvature in the next 48 hours...
Maybe a real met could tell me I'm wrong (and I hope to hell I am).
Phil, IF this turns out to be meaningful, and it may be, it just moves the track away from the Central East coast. This won't help Stuart or Ft Pierce and PB much, but it might mitigate the damage in the more Northern coastal towns. C'ant win for losing. I hate being spared at the expense of others, but I do appreciate being spared! BUT, it is still just a forecast until it happens so it remains a question for all of us. For now, I'm forced to assume the viewpoint is what I need to plan for and pray it is just another exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot.....unfortunately.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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Could some one please post the link for the model tracks from ? The one I have is for and I can't get back to the link for Jeanne. Help!
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Kent---if it keeps moving the way it is, I would expect to see some kind of watch/warnings for your area. It would be foolish not to do it, especially after you look at that WV loop that Phil posted.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'm saying no such thing...all I am saying is that to my untrained eye (I pretty much ignore models...you can just look at the atmosphere and see what's going on, once you know what to look for), I can see no reason for any northward turn for a while...
The WV loops can tell us a lot!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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luki
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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up here mets arent really pinpointing a landfall location,just stressing that this one is gonna be way too close for comfort,and today and tomorrow prefebly today is the time to prepare,basically were being told this will be another effect for us here in JAX only stronger
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Hey Phil. Thanks for that article on Cantore. All I can say is WOW. I respect him all the more.
Actually, thanks go to Frank P. He originally posted the link. I just thought it was worth a repost!
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 01:22 PM)
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Earle
Unregistered
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Quote:
Earle....thank you for that post. Why in the world they won't let it be seen is beyond me.  But at least SOMEONE had the guts to put it into words, which is all we're asking for.
Colleen,
Your welcome. Hope I don't get the SC State Climatologist in trouble.
This link explains the proprietary nature of the model.
http://www.techtransfer.fsu.edu/showcase/weather.html
Briefly, an researcher developed the model, the University patented it and then licensed it to a private company Weather Predict, Inc. The company either provides the model or model output for a fee and the University gets a royalty.
It's all about the money. Most likely the research that led to the development of the model was funded with public (i.e., taxpayers') money. Pretty common practice.
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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Remember the reporter who was standing totally exposed to the elements during Francis so much so that she had to duck down and hang onto a post in order to not become a flying object? Her name is Jill Martin and she just reported that according to the Dolphins Headcoach Dave Wamstadt that the game is still on with the Steelers for Sunday at 1:00 in Miami......
What do they know that we don't? hmmmm....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Kent...this is straight from the horse's mouth:
Quote:
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS INCLUDES METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CITIES OF WEST PALM BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
That's probably what Bryan Norcross was talking about.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Remember the reporter who was standing totally exposed to the elements during Francis so much so that she had to duck down and hang onto a post in order to not become a flying object? Her name is Jill Martin and she just reported that according to the Dolphins Headcoach Dave Wamstadt that the game is still on with the Steelers for Sunday at 1:00 in Miami......
What do they know that we don't? hmmmm....
Dave Wanstedt knows only slightly less about the weather than he does football...
Ricky Williams may like to hit the hash pipe every now and then, but even he knew when it was time to bail...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't think you'll get him in trouble...if he posted it somewhere that you could copy it, than he is probably okay.
I know it's "all about the money", that's what makes me so darned mad. We're talking about people's lives here, and the almight dollar is more important.
Ok, vented....(not directed at you by the way!) feel better, now I can go get some stuff done. Which I've been saying since 8:00am this morning. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I think this exerpt from the sums up the forecast pretty well:
W PALM BEACH FL 1 20 3 X 24 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL X 20 4 1 25
Phil, you and your WV loop....now the is starting to look at it!!!!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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ROFLOL...YOU CRACK ME UP! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
You can see the eye is having problems,
There is not the firing of Thunderstorms at the core,
It looks like dry air has gotten entrained in the center.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hey Phil,
This is what I said very early this a.m.
Quote:
I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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Coleen,
eeewww. your probably right...
and Richard:
... as far as that "exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot..."
Can I seriously suggest Haiti?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Hey Phil,
This is what I said very early this a.m.
Quote:
I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right.
And it is even more prescient now...
Where's the Dolphin avatar?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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It's the same numbers as had. WPB and CB are the same or it runs WPD FP and then CB
Almost exactly as
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