scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Sorry was afk,.....1st question is on will it go out by Sarasota? I doubt that highly but its not a gurantee it wont. I would say the farthest south would be southern hillsborough thru pinellas out by clearwater. Do I think it will go out into the gulf though north of there? Well there is a 1/3 chance. Its better then say it going east of Orlando. Finally, with mets to other mets we will always agree to disagree. On tv will we acknowledge our own team of mets even if we feel they have a wrong thought on something. On the we will say to follow their guidance. SO WE ARNT TO BLAME...heheh but in general if you look at the Melbourne-Tampa-Miami - where ever we coordinate with other NWS areas to help give out tweaks in our forcasts wtih their ideas. We always team up to get on Best same page.
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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WINK TV in Ft. Myers just said that it's still moving west at (on?) 27.2 N at 13 mph. They also said the wind was 120 mph.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I just heard 120mph on NBC as well. How on earth did it increase 5mph as it was making landfall???
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wink just got 1am adv.... yes it made landfall with 120mph and is moving slightly north of due west.... here's recon!
URNT12 KNHC 260426
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/0426Z
B. 27 DEG 11 MIN N
80 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2753 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 027 DEG 95 KT
G. 304 DEG 44 NM
H. EXTRAP 947 MB
I. 11 C/ 3081 M
J. 15 C/ 3080 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF980 2311A JEANNE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 95 KT NW QUAD 0418Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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That information was from the 1 p.m. advisory, which was written shortly before then. It's now 1;13
The movement more north is shown on radar. Stuart is now on the Southern edge of the eye.
Edited by alan (Sun Sep 26 2004 01:16 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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think 1 AM advisory!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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yeah Colleen, I don't see any nw movement either.. if anything, more of a westerly movement with some wnw thrown in.. looks like it is headed towards Spring Hill area up north of us. Gary Vickers, Pinellas County EOC just said on tv that they expect high tropical storm force winds here in Pinellas and that hurricane force winds were going to be just north and east of us and that it could change. Looks like our area will start getting the wrath about 5 am till about noon or 1
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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WHAT THE HELL? The 1am advisory has the winds up to 120mph!!!!!!! I'm not even going there. How could it get stronger OVER land? Or did they underestimate it before it made landfall?
I do agree that it looks like that turn to the NW is starting to occur.
Oh this thing just gets more confusing as it goes on...
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RickInRockledge
Unregistered
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check for NW movement http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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yeah she has strengthn thanks to the St Lucie river,,,LOL JK....anyways for real she did though with the center interacting with land and tightning up the gradient from the water to landmass....although it has gone up to 120, it will start going down 10mph from now on every 2-3 hrs. Well I was going to say my landfall of 948mb was off thinking it was 953mb but now since its 947.2 I was right now. Beer anyone?
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Quote:
think 1 AM advisory!
Yes it is...
My body tells me to go to bed, but I just can't! 
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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well, I don't see it.. I still see west with a touch of wnw.. but, maybe I'm blind. 
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Your the best Scott! 
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Hoping to help:
TV stations that are livecasting on the web:
West Palm Beach:
http://www.thewpbfchannel.com/index.html
http://www.wflxfox29.com/
http://wpecnews12.com/
http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv/
Fort Myers
http://www.abc-7.com/ -live feed
http://www2.winktv.com/ - info, no live feed
http://www.nbc-2.com/ -live feed
Naples
http://www.wzvntv.com/ - -live feed
Miami
http://www.wfor.com/ -live feed
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html live feed
Tampa
http://www.wfla.com/ info, no live feed
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2004/9/26/56414.html list of radio stations simulcasting Bay News 9
http://www.wfla.com/ list of radio stations simulcasting
Jacksonville
http://www.wawsfox30.com/ -live feed
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/ info, no live feed, webcams
http://www.news4jax.com/index.html no live feed, has County By County Storm Status
Orlando
http://www.wesh.com/index.html
http://www.wftv.com/index.html -live feed
http://www.local6.com/index.html live feed
'shana
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i think winds picked up right before landfall, because of water temps close to beach and the eyewall closed off to about 40 miles wide, compared to the 50 miles wide 3 hrs earlier.... had a eyewall replacement just before landfall...also the 120mph i heard was from a ground level observation on that island where eyewall came ashore....sustained wind too... i am thinking now she may exit near tampa into GOM, she is much faster than !
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html
At landfall, the top of the eye is half way across St. Lucie County to the north and across all of Martin County to the south. Now, the eye is the entire distance of St. Lucie County and only slightly in Martin County.
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BinCA
Unregistered
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Ga Resident: May I point out that by the time it gets to GA the wind shouldn't be the problem. As others have stated, flooding will be. Unless you are quite sure your house will remain high and dry, I would be concerned about the kids in the BASEMENT. They'd probably be safer upstairs (an interior room just in case there might be local tornados). But why not keep them with you? The hospital would certainly be a safe spot and you wouldn't have to worry.
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Staggy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
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Quote:
WHAT THE HELL? The 1am advisory has the winds up to 120mph!!!!!!! I'm not even going there. How could it get stronger OVER land? Or did they underestimate it before it made landfall?
I do agree that it looks like that turn to the NW is starting to occur.
Oh this thing just gets more confusing as it goes on...
Max Mayfield said on a local station here (Miami station) that a plane found the 120mph winds around the time of landfall. It said they were in an area that they hadn't been able to measure or something to that effect.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The overall movement is about 280dg. the eye has been oval shaped and lopsided and as it wobbles it looks like it going more N or W but in general there is a just north then west course. To see a more N turn you would have to see the southern part of the eye move north for 3 hrs along with the northern part. When you right now see the northern part move nw,, you also see the southern part more wsw. Overall its just the eye is contracting in and out 1-2 miles per frame.
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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
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Quote:
Beer anyone?
Yes. Mass quantities (or whatever Dan Akroyd used to do on the coneheads).
FWIW, some guy told me today at the liquor store when I was stocking up that they had suspended sale of alchohol in Brevard county at 6PM. Talk about adding insult to injury.....
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