nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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was that answering the question bout the storm or my other question?
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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yeah i live in new smyrna beach and i was wondering if i should purchase plywood before hand this year or not. will still havent got our roofing supplies we order yet i hope we get them on time for this season.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I was answering your question about your mom comimg to Florida, I think the state of Florida is in the clear when it comes to tropical weather. As for the disturbance that the rest of the guys are watching, I would ask one of the pros like Clark , H.F, or Phil.........Weatherchef
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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nl,
welcome aboard! if you read these boards, you will learn much and we will attempt to answer any questions you may have. one question NO ONE can answer, however, is "will there be a storm at xyz on June 18?" all you can do is be prepared from June through November and stay abreast of the topics. as far as planning a vacation during a certain date, even to hurricane prone areas, do not worry about it...the chances are very slim that any future development will have any affect at all, and even so, you will ample time to prepare (if you are staying) and advanced notice if you wish to leave.
bear in mind that the "peak" of the season is from about August 15 thru October 15, so during this two month period there is a greater chance for tropical development. tell you mom to come on down!
again welcome aboard...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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hello nl welcome to the site...i am new also and yet ive already learned so much about hurricanes and their peak seasons...these guys are awesome...if you ever have any questions they have no problem answering them for you...no question is a stupid question...so feel to free to ask anything... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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now has T# 1.0/1.0 25kts its on its way (CI#)
hr: this belongs in the other storm basins forum...
Edited by LI Phil (Tue May 17 2005 12:08 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well looks like the system in the eastern Pacific is getting much better organised now, with deep convection and some banding features. Wouldnt be surprised to see this classified possibly later today. This mornings TRMM pass showed winds of 25 to 30 knots with this system. The also continues running models on this system, which now bring it to near Tropical Storm intensity within 36 hours, and continue to take it across central America to just south of western Cuba.
000
WHXX01 KMIA 171245
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050517 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050517 1200 050518 0000 050518 1200 050519 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.7N 95.4W 10.5N 94.6W 11.5N 94.5W 12.6N 94.4W
BAMM 9.7N 95.4W 10.5N 94.9W 11.2N 94.5W 11.9N 94.1W
LBAR 9.7N 95.4W 10.6N 94.5W 11.8N 94.0W 13.4N 93.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050519 1200 050520 1200 050521 1200 050522 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 94.2W 16.7N 92.2W 21.0N 88.4W 26.3N 83.8W
BAMM 12.8N 93.4W 15.3N 89.6W 19.4N 85.2W 22.7N 80.7W
LBAR 14.9N 93.8W 17.6N 92.8W 19.7N 88.5W 23.1N 81.1W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 43KTS 31KTS
DSHP 44KTS 32KTS 30KTS 23KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 95.4W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 96.2W DIRM12 = 83DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 96.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Does anyone have any thoughts about how strong or weak the bermuda high will be in August and Sept.Also where it will be.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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this is from today's palm beach post:
"Another rescuer would be a weakening of the Bermuda High, the ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic that helped steer all those hurricanes into Florida last year. But Jim Lushine, a forecaster at the National Weather Service's Miami office, said it's still unclear whether the high will weaken enough to put Florida out of harm's way."
The full article can be found here.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I would think one might get a better idea about the high come late June or mid-July.If The Alley is right on there predictions then I would suspect a more active GOM season.The fact remains that every storm has it's own set of variables that affect it's intensity and path.I have dropped a little tool to help in the understaning how Lows affect the path of storms.
http://meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm
This should show one that it is really fruitless to worry about something weeks in advance because of all the variables that take place.One should on the other hand just be calm and prepared in the event should something happen.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Yea Rich wind field at the about says it.Alot of 25-30kts winds organization only looking better all the time.This could be really interesting if it crosses.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...F_NAME=ep902005
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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That is very cool Javin!!!!
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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it is still holding up. we might have a TD soon
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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guys i know you are excited about the EPAC storm, but please keep those comments off the main board and put them into the "Other Storm Basins" forum! Thanks. should this form and try to cross over into our basin, then you can certainly post about it on the main board!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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NRL has a put up a Tropical Cyclone formation Alert
alert
(which means will follow with a TD?)
now looks like will get the first of the season for the epac....and then maybe later the atlantic?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 17 2005 02:06 PM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I think you might be right...Weatherchef... [image]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes[/image]
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N 95.5W OR ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AT 17/1200 MOVING SLOWLY NE.
CONVECTION HAS GROWN NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING BECOMING MORE
APPARENT. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
UPPER WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH EVIDENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDS FANNING OUT ON THE WESTERN SIDE WITH A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE NE AS IT IS CAUGHT UP IN SW FLOW THRU A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE... A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE EPAC. . SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.
TWDEP
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 17 2005 02:17 PM)
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Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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Very good visual on how Highs and Lows steer a storm 
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just read the twd atlantic.....
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 17 MAY 2005
read the discussion for GOM....last line... 
THIS SHOULD ALLOW.....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It states we will get some precipitation from this. Are you reading anything else regarding this?
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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