FLHurricane.com: Quiet Atlantic, Action Out West

After made landfall over a week ago along the Alabama/Florida border, all has been quiet in the Atlantic basin. A trough is located along the east coast, with an upper-level low in the central Caribbean and easterlies across much of the tropical Atlantic, all combining to make tropical activity unlikely. Convection has been firing off and on in the Caribbean over the past week to week and a half, but all of this has been in association with winds spreading apart at upper levels to the east of a tropical upper-low (TUTT cell) and not indicative of anything likely to become organized. The trough along the east coast is showing some signs of lifting out, but the subtropical jet is still likely to keep anything that may try to develop in check through the next 5 days in our basin. Conditions may gradually improve in the western Caribbean, where pressures have been relatively low for much of the month, but development out of that is more likely in the east Pacific in a few days, something that has pretty good support from most of the computer models.

As such, all of the activity around these parts is in the east Pacific right now, where T.D. #2 (likely future Beatriz) is located. Convection with the storm has gradually become better organized this evening, shear tendencies are favorable, and waters are reasonably warm, if not overly so. The predominant steering flow should keep the storm moving towards the west, perhaps slightly north of west, for the next few days. Gradual strengthening, along the lines of the forecast, is likely with the depression, as light-to-moderate shear and relatively low heat potential (a relatively new product; heat potential has actually been on the decline lately in the east Pacific) will likely serve to keep its intensity in check. The system has an outside shot at becoming a weak hurricane, but the latest forecast of 60-65mph is more likely. The storm should not affect land as it moves west, serving only to enhance surf conditions along the Mexican coast over the coming days.

We'll keep an eye to both basins to watch for any potential development, though the east Pacific is our focus for the time being. Stay tuned to the Other Storm Basins Forum, where LI Phil has already started a topic on Beatriz, for more on T.D. #2 and any other future development in the east Pacific.

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