Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Try these:::
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Watch and see if goes S of Jamaica.If you use the Lat/Lon lines on the Goes2 it looks almost due W now.Might be a trick on the eyes by the sat.but we all use them like that in here.We will have a good fix this afternoon after recon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
All you have to do is go to this site and click on the map,Sure looks like all of Florida to me. http://www.nbc6.net/weather/4687760/detail.html
Here's the 11am 5-day forecast cone per the (the one I stated in my post). It does not include all of Florida.
5 Day Cone
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Check the Surf
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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So now the models are NOT in agreement,not surprised.I think we are getting to the point were all bets are off.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, you win...it doesn't have part of the East Coast of Florida in it. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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dumbo
Unregistered
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the maps you keep showing are not the official maps. The official maps do not include all of FL (Albiet almost all is included)...also, the official map had Pensacola landfall at 5AM and 11Am.
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I think that we have been at that point for the past two days. 
Guys, don't forget that we are still atleast four days out. People comming here for information are going to be seriously confused.
Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 06 2005 12:43 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I saw that,they have not updated there graphics as of yet.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Thanks for the links. Interesting stuff.
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Brad Shumbera
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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I've found links to the UKMET, , and , but can't seem to find the NAM. Any help?
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Brad Shumbera
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Danny can help you with the oil rig information, but he won't be back until later tonight.
Model runs really are vascillating all over the place, while the track is sticking to the east side of most of the guidance. Last night's 00Z took to storm into Tallahassee, quite a bit of an eastward shift. The 06Z was in the same area as well. The 12Z Canadian is even further east, taking the storm up the west side of Florida (very fast, I might add), which cannot completely be discounted as the model has done well this year to date. By contrast, the 12Z and UKMET are both presenting a doomsday scenario for New Orleans. The 00Z -- and most of the other models -- are somewhere in between.
What does it all mean? We really don't know where the storm is going to go, but we can likely pin it down away from Texas now. Other than that, anywhere from Louisiana to the Keys is still very much under the gun, and we won't know a lot more until the storm get closer to land and the surveillance aircraft gets out there to give us some extra data for ingestion into the models.
Full update soon...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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schmee
Unregistered
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no wishcasting here...
keep away from New Orleans
we had higher than expected winds with Cindy and we really couldn't handle a monster storm.
of course I don't wish him on anyone --maybe we'll get lucky and he'll die out somehow (this is the true wishcast)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The can be found at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/, but I would not trust it (yet alone use it) for any tropical event, particularly one that is not currently within the model domain. The model only covers North America, leaving much of the Caribbean out. Further, it does not keep a closed surface low -- something that is not going to occur with this storm. The model is slowly being phased out in favor of the WRF and is best used for continental weather only.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i believe, soon to be a hurricane will make first landfall on eastern Jamaica as a cat. 2 hurricane then bump up to a cat. 3 where it will make a second landfall in western Cuba. After that it will make it's dash toward the Gulf Coast. A day or so away from landfall, will turn northward and make its final landfall(third landfall) somewhere between Panama City and Pensacola, FL. Even though some models show a more northward turn toward the south western florida coast, I believe this will be a Panhandle hurricane. After making its final cat 3 landfall it will dash off through Alabama, then north western Georgia, then Tennesse, then Virgina/West Virginia, Pennsylvania/Maryland, New York, and Upper Vermont possibly. It will stay at hurricane force up through Alabama where it will weaken ino a strong TS and then up into the Virginia's it will be a TD. This is a pretty long range forecast but basically, anywhere from Panama City to Mobile. I'd Be hitting up Home Depot about now. And also, east coaster's, wath fopr some localized flooding. Well what do people think about this?
Thanks, Ryan. 
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks for the great post, Clark. I think it clears up some of the confusion. I think once Recon gets out there we will have a much better idea and the models may start to be more reliable with some real information being fed into them.
I really don't want to keep squabbling over a tiny veer to the right; what part of Florida is/is not in cone, etc. We have enough time to worry about in the very near future. But I also understand the frustration of NOT KNOWING exactly what it's gonna do. We want answers, and we want them NOW!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Now that I said the models shifted west, I look at the most updated visible loops and it seems is into his northward jog again. Its hrd to determine the exact center, but you have to look beneath some of the dense overcast. Looks like a 300 degree heading again. Cheers (Steve H.)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Jogs are commonplace in large systems; do you see the beginning of an 'eye'?
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Lysis, as you said the media likes to jump on things like this (being storms) but, last night with exception of and local 11 p.m. news casts, I couldn't find any live coverage of Cindy. I guess it isn't "big" enough news for them or what? I mean, had it been a CAT III or more, you know that idiots from every station in the US would be at the place of landfall waiting for a tree to come flying through the air, only to knock them out for that video coverage of how strong the winds are. What's the deal? IMHO, I think every storm regardless of Catagory deserves recognition. People need to be aware that even a TS can pack a punch.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I was just about to say that what Steve may be seeing is not necessarily a northward jog, but may be the sats playing tricks as the eye appears to be forming.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Amen...the best models, forecasters, etc...can do their best to try to pin it...some come pretty dang close...bottom line though is Mother Nature will do her own thing..
Best thing to do is be prepared & not panic...imagine the days before radar & mets...minding your own business & thinking "oh some rains coming"...then WHAM.
Time to go play in the pool for a bit & enjoy the sunshine.
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