Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Why do model discussions refer to moving the path to the right or left, rather than east and west?
Not all hurricanes move North or South, so left/right covers all the bases regardless of track...
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Been watching the latest water vapor loop
www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Looks to me like the ridging over FL is expanding west, and I've seen no jog to the left in 's track so far. It seems as if Cindy's movement NE is expanding the ridging over FL to the south. This might be why the models keep shifting left. If I were in New Orleans right now...I'd be thinking about my evacuation route (not a bad thing under any circumstances...be prepared).
...and a real Hurricane freak has www.nhc.gov as their home page <G>
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Will needs to start really moving at 300' to catch Jamaica.The last 9 hrs it has been moving at 282' avg.Maybe the last jog is a trend to come.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just looked at it and it looks like the bands are really starting to wrap around the LLC. Sometimes (I think) when a storm is trying to get it's act together the convection may wane a bit, but I would not be surprised to see the convection refire.
A sidenote: It appears that is on a true W/NW track:
the last advisory it moved .3 degrees north and .5 degrees west.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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GFDL is intialized off the Data Correct ? or am I wrong ?
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Actually, I was joking about wanting to know NOW...just stressing how much we all hate the "hurry up and wait" mode we're in. We're used to getting information at the speed of light with all our new technology, so waiting for a storm is something that frustrates many people. 
<grin>
I *know* that....but it got you to talk to me  Oh, where were you 45 years ago when I was 'on the make'
...and it gave me a chance to give you an 'atta-girl' for your perspectives and thought provoking comments.
Richard
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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It lost another mph @2:00pm.So yesterday it was moving @ 20mph now 14mph.I think this MAY move it more to the east,again it will just give that High more time to move more east.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Cindy moving northeast should help to erode the western extent of the ridge, not really to build it up. Were it moving due north, or accelerating off towards the east, that'd probably be the case. The trough trailing behind the storm coupled with another shortwave trough upstream of the system are & will more than likely help to erode the western extent of the ridge.
The models have really been going back and forth as it is a question of small-scale features and their timing that will influence the future track of the storm. Any small change in one or the other could result in a large forecast track (and to a lesser extent, intensity) change. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models out to 5 days now other than to say that everyone east of Texas needs to be watching this one very closely.
Question about the /GFS: I do believe the gets the initial conditions from the , but the forecast itself comes from its own model. The storm itself is initialized separately using a bogussing technique. Most US mesoscale/fine-scale models are initialized using the as a background, for what it's worth.
To better answer the convection/structure question: my gut feeling is that the storm has ingested a bit of dry air coming off of the slopes of Hispaniola, affecting convection on the northwest side of the storm, but this is only a temporary impact. As it begins to move a bit further to the west, as we are seeing now, the convection should wrap entirely around the center and allow the storm to resume strengthening. Truth be told, any hold up in intensification is a good thing.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That was a great picture! I happened to notice three things:
1) It looks like Cindy is pushing the Bermuda High (at least I think that's what it is) further east;
2) is ginormous...and he looks like he's getting bigger and better organized, too.
3) Look at the Cindy's tail...elongated from NE/SW.
I might be incorrect on what I'm seeing, of course, with regards to #1. Anyone please feel free to correct me! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Nice write up on the storm Ed. For those of you who haven't seen it check out the latest Meteorologist Blog by Ed Dunham.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Will needs to start really moving at 300' to catch Jamaica.The last 9 hrs it has been moving at 282' avg.Maybe the last jog is a trend to come.
I'm not at all convinced that Jamaica is in the direct path, maybe not even Haiti. Cuba...another story but if it crosses the narrow western third, it won't do too much to the storm structure, IHMO. I'm not sure the ridge over Florida will hold through the weekend so we may lose some of our 'protection' and it could edge closer than currently forecast. I think it *could* get breezy this weekend anywhere in Florida, but not necessarily stormy. Best bet for stormy remains Biloxi to Cross City *at this time*.
Richard
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Please enlighten those of us who haven't followed this forum until recently as to what the "pucker pressure" means...
...it is a measure of 'anal retentivity'.
Richard
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heynow
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
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Lake Toho--
What is the link to Ed's blog?
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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It's on the main page.
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Brad Shumbera
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Welcome to the forum! Look under the "NEWS" section at the top left hand side of the screen and click on "Met Blogs". That will get you right to Ed's write-up.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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heynow
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
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I am a numbskull. Thanks.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Hmmm...maybe I'm not looking at it correctly. Water vapor loops have always been confusing to me. I know that high pressure runs clockwise, and it looks as though Cindy's "tail" is pulling on a NE axis which is rotating clockwise over FL and on the southern end moving west over Cuba. Also the moisture trail feeding Cindy (the tail) is starting to tilt to the right. I'm no meterologist...but it looks like the high is trying to wedge under Cindy. The dry air to the west of Cindy does not seem to be punching south at all
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The ridge is there, you are reading that correctly -- the outflow from the trailing band of Cindy is feeding into the ridge, as evidenced by the anticyclonic turning. However, the appearance of the wedge is because part of the northern extent of the ridge has been eroded by the storm, assisting in the NE movement of the storm in its own right. It's partially cause, partially effect, but the latter should win out to some degree over time. It'll be an indirect impact upon & its track, but large enough to be felt I believe.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Clark - one of the missing elements in reporting about approaching 'cains last year was the heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm probability.
One thing I wish was done more here to warn folks is a general map showing flooding and thunderstorm impact probabilities (ie: like the NE quadrant impacts). We all know 'cains bring wind - but what few know is how severe some of the flooding and thunderstorms can be (tormatic type). The SWIFTMUD flooding potential maps were way off last year for the most part.
Maybe as Skeeto puts his maps together, and you report to us what you have the time to report, you might provide him/us with additional ideas of where the heavier parts of the storms will be - impact other than just wind. Say, if was to just graze Tampa Bay on his way up the Gulf, Orlando could very well be in the hardest hit (other than wind) part of the storm. Just an idea..
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StormSurfer
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
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I know we already got on our hands and we're watching it. But looks like they're really starting to roll in now. Looks like a pretty big one rolling in the western Atlantic?
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