Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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This hurricane will be quite large in diameter...we could really use one of s maps to overlay the current size in the GOM. I think many of us will unexpectedly feel the effects of this sucker.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't think anyone is wishcasting or fearcasting. I just think we're seeing something; we might be right, we might be wrong. We're just talking about it, that's all. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
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To me it seems clear that the dynamics to north are changing very quickly.
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
The 11PM discussion is coming soon. I wonder if the will address the "apparent" NW "jog".
my bet is that they'll adjust the track to a 305 or 310 degree heading which is a change from the 295 deg heading discussed during the 5 PM update. Still think it's too early to see if this affects long-term track
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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And just for the record,I am not writing off a se fl hit.And believe me this is not a wishcast.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I know...it just seems that some are really stretching to get this thing to turn north...There is just no evidence of that at this time. Like I said, it may have jogged north, but has now jogged back west. I agree with Tropics Guy that it aqppears an eye is starting to show it's ugly head and is moving WNW. We shall see soon. Regardless, by the time we wake in the morning, an eye will have probably formed and the speculation on movement can end.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Quote:
If it stays on it's current track,it woud hit the middle keys.And there is some info that suggest it could be a little east of that.So South Fl. is far from being out of the woods.
If the current track pans out, only the lower keys will see tropical force winds as it brushes by, though any deviation to the north would change the scenario.
TG
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bubba
Unregistered
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why not
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I think it is important to note,that and went just south of Jamica.Also Earl.And we know where they ended up.So if goes just north of Jamica.................Well that is just one of many reasons I am not writing off south Florida.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Jul 06 2005 10:30 PM)
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
I know...it just seems that some are really stretching to get this thing to turn north...There is just no evidence of that at this time. Like I said, it may have jogged north, but has now jogged back west. I agree with Tropics Guy that it aqppears an eye is starting to show it's ugly head and is moving WNW. We shall see soon. Regardless, by the time we wake in the morning, an eye will have probably formed and the speculation on movement can end.
I think a slight turn to the northwest has occurred from earlier this afternoon..this may be due to the expanding convection or slight weakening in the ridge. The slight turn was picked up on by most of the models as they have the storm moving between Hispanola and Jamaica. As i said B4, its way too early to say its movin more toward the FL peninsula - to me, it's about right on track with the model guidance
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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A statement here from Accuweather regarding the models
"The North American Regional model (NAM) takes into south Florida early Saturday morning and the Canadian model shows hugging the west coast of Florida then moving northward. These two models seemed to catch the strength of the Atlantic ridge at times much better than other computer models. So, we can't discount these solutions just yet."
Much of the western Florida coast remains in the cone of uncertainty as of 5pm, so i am not ready to write it off either.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Now that I can agree with. Very close to the 18Z and UKMET.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
This hurricane will be quite large in diameter...we could really use one of s maps to overlay the current size in the GOM. I think many of us will unexpectedly feel the effects of this sucker.
Here is the closest we can get to rendering the current "apparent" size of this entire system. We did an overlay of the latest satellite image and drew our circle to the farthest extent of the feeder bands.
Keep in mind that the official data indicates that at 5pm est the tropical storm force winds extended 105 miles from center (much less than half this total area) and that hurricane force winds extended just 25 miles from center.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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i have been saying that all day long. so anyone seen the new wave its huge? 
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Also if you look at the projected path,Jamica is right in the middle,soooooooo if he goes just to the north of Jamica they will have to shift everything east.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Everyone has their opinion on where its going. Some insist it will go to where they live ( although they say , they dont want it). Its ok for them to say what they want, as long as they dont say things like " I heard a met say that Miami will be hit forsure" There are people browsing this forum who never post and just check updates. We dont want to scare anyone.
Every year we get a new person or 2 that will say its coming their way, no matter if its only a wobble on a sat view or they miss interpeted something they heard.
To know the best forecasters in here are the guys who post the blogs. There are others though who are also good interpeters of the weather.
scottsvb
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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From weatherunderground... the 11pm has at 85 mph.
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Brad Shumbera
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Still moving WNW.....winds up to 85.....still projected landfall around Mobile...Pressure down to 980.
Generally not much change to previous update.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Clark - anyone - look at this link and tell me what I am seeing in the lower left hand quadrant off and south of Naples.. is that a low starting to form? I am looking at the rotation of the winds..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ldis/4km/ldis_currentwx_wp.html
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Now that is an everyone gets wet storm. Feeling more like I need to make sure my hurricane supplies are all in place even here. Still a bit shell shocked from the surprizes of
BTW: not panicing or anything - just waking up and realizing that time of year is here already
Edited by nowhammies (Wed Jul 06 2005 10:40 PM)
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