Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Look as if there is little change in the overall track for the 11pm package, western peninsula remains in the cone. Stewart is writing the discussion again tonight, should be another good one.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Bob they been showing it moving N of Jamaica for days. They wont change the path to S Florida cause of that.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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outSTANDING stuff Skeeto.. now THAT is what I call advance knowledge... getting better and better all the time
now do that to the model that is the potentially closest track to the west coast of florida.. 
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I may have misunderstood Clark,But he seems to be leaning towards a more easterly track.Sorry if I am wrong Clark.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
A statement here from Accuweather regarding the models
"The North American Regional model (NAM) takes into south Florida early Saturday morning and the Canadian model shows hugging the west coast of Florida then moving northward. These two models seemed to catch the strength of the Atlantic ridge at times much better than other computer models. So, we can't discount these solutions just yet."
Much of the western Florida coast remains in the cone of uncertainty as of 5pm, so i am not ready to write it off either.
I wouldn't write off the west coast of Florida as Denis Phillips apparently did on local ABC Tampa station tonight. The (mesoscale model) has been pretty consistent during its 00Z and 12 Z runs today - keeping running north along 84-85 deg W - which puts this large storm dangerously close to the entire west coast of FL. It's interesting that both Clark and Ed (FL Central METs) are in some agreement that the global models may be overplaying the strength of the ridge - the model may be picking up more local pertubations in the pattern, suggesting a closer track to the peninsula
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Someone remind me not to be busy and away from the computer from 730 AM-930 PM when there's a hurricane going on... 33 pages of posts was kind of hard to catch up on!!!
Looking at the IR, it almost appears that is going to split in two... Maybe that could solve all of the debate... half of him will go west and the other half east...
The one good thing that happened today is my lawn guy happened to come to mow my grass and cleaned up my branch-ladden yard. I told my mom this, and she said he should have waited until after ... hhmm, if comes, I'm sure the cleanup will be more than a couple of branches...
He's up to 85 mph winds...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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A matter of personal curiosity. I fled the Bradenton coast last year for and headed inland to Arcadia where we endured cat 4 winds.
Does anyone remember who, on the boards - if anyone - forecast the more Eastward turn that made which was in direct contradiction to the "official" forecast until it was too late to do much except pray?
Thanks,
Bev
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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We should have an eye to follow by the morning.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Scott,
If Jamica is in the middle of the projected path,and it goes north of Jamica,they would have to change the cone to the east.Sorry, but to me that is just commen sence.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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That was me Bev..lol
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Thanks Skeeto. I suspected the size would be large. I imagine as the storm strengthens, the hurricane force winds and TS winds will expand outward from the center. I think might have more surprises in store for us. I am always suspicious when the models are in so much agreement this early. Raise your hand if you can remember a storm that DID NOT follow the early model consensus. I mean this storm is not even past Jamaica yet! I am not convinced of any landfall point just yet. For me, I will feel safe when it passes my longitude and latitude.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Nope, Bob all models have been forecasting to move N and E of Jamaica. Just cause it goes E of there, why do you think it will go to you?
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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From the 11pm advisory: "Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...Dennis is expected to pass over or just east of Jamaica by Thursday afternoon. "
As an aside, a slight deviation to the east bypassing Jamaica does not necessarily imply a dramatic shift east later.
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Brad Shumbera
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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LOL Thanks Scott, I should have paid more attention. I thought I remembered somebody making the case for the eastward move, but couldn't remember whodunit.
I would say "kudos" on your excellent call, but it was too miserable an experience to do so! However, will watch your posts with interest. <grin>
And no, I'm not going ANYWHERE this year except behind my plywood with lots of water, food and generator.
Quote:
That was me Bev..lol
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I am not saying it will hit miami/ft laud,but I am also not ready to say it won't.The slower he goes the more the high has a chance to move more east.As someone else said,it's not even to Jamica yet!!!!!
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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XLM
Unregistered
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Lol, everyone here (me included) are professional wishcasters
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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Thanks to those who answered my question about surge. I know if a storm comes in, like did, the surge will be to the south (speaking of Charlotte/Lee County area where I live). I know we'll flood here in Cat 1 or 2 coming in. But it's frustrating to not have access to what a hurricane does when it rides up along the coast. I think it was Gabrielle that brought our canal up onto the grass. I'm not worried about waves or swells, but we'll be trapped here if we don't get out ahead of rising water. Not to mention that most of Charlotte County is at 12 feet elevation or less.
I'm not in a panic, but we'll have decisions to make at some point so I'm trying to gather information.
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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One of your main arguements for a SE FL event all day has been the trend towards slower speeds (20mph to 13mph). What do you make of the latest advisory suggesting is back up to 15mph, Bob?
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Brad Shumbera
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Scott,
If Jamica is in the middle of the projected path,and it goes north of Jamica,they would have to change the cone to the east.Sorry, but to me that is just commen sence.
It might appear to be common sense, but in reality this is not the case...
Ivan was forecast to cross Cuba and Jamaica, but as we know it jogged more south and missed them both...however, this didn't affect the eventual final forecast, as the models that 'missed' the south jogs still got the final idea correct. Missing Jamaica to the south doesn't necessarily mean a more westward track, just as moving north of Jamaica doesn't mean a more northerly track on the whole.
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Jason Kelley
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The tropical storm force wind field for grew about 40 miles wider between the 5pm and 11pm advisories. Impressive growth for 6 hours work. Hurricane force windfield remains at 25 miles from center (that's 50 miles across for the new folks)
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