wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I am in on the conference call via my local NWS office...
Dennis is now a cat 4. 951 mb. 134 knt at FL on recon. 115 knots , gust to 140 kt.
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Jason Kelley
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dumbo
Unregistered
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any change to the current thinking? Looks to be trying to miss the tip of Cuba and move on a more WNW path the past few hours.
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bob895
Unregistered
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no pressure change from the 8pm?
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Hey Jason
Any changes to the track forecast or reasoning?
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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... no doubt. Classic deepening signature in the last several frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 10:08 PM)
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Quote:
I never wanted to be wrong,more than I do right now.My prayers go out to all who will be affected by this storm.
HUH ?????? 
I think he misplaced the comma. Basically he feels that a South Florida hit is a shoe-in at this point and he is praying for everyone in Miami.
Although at this point, none of the models even remotely support it, his intentions are definitely in the right place 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I agree, I think its definitely heading on a generally NW direction ...at least that's the appearance looking at the radar, which at times can be deceiving....
It never fails to amaze me how these things eventually do something that catches everyone off guard, shifts direction, slows down, stalls, weakens, strengthens... .... and I think somewhere down the road is probably going to throw a curve somewhere... I just have no idea what it will be... and if I did, I run straight to the casinos tonight...
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Marco Island =[
Unregistered
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 Er guys the meance is now a cat 4 HOLD ON TO YOUR HATs !!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Extra Fix???
URNT11 KNHC 080150
97779 01394 60194 77119 30500 21070 08088 /3049
RMK AF307 WX04A OB 06
RADAR CENTER FIX 19.7N 77.4W
CIRCULAR EYE 16NM DIAMETER, OPEN SW. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.
NAV ACCURACY 1 NM.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Actually went West of Jam, is East, here is the full track http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Haven't gotten to that yet...
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Jason Kelley
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Looks like it may go in between the moutain ranges,that would mean less weakening.Very tight eye.People are starting to stock up here now,I did.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
... no doubt. Classic deepening signature in the last several frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Watch the time stamp on the frames. Time lag in what you see and what Recon is seeing.
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
I am in on the conference call via my local NWS office...
Dennis is now a cat 4. 951 mb. 134 knt at FL on recon. 115 knots , gust to 140 kt.
Thank you for the update!
All the GOM data - IR, shortwave, etc. are now clearly showing a very tight and perfect eye bearing down on that tiny point of Cuba.
May God protect and watch over those folks.
-Bev
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 07 2005 10:15 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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thats still a NW motion from the 9:00 pm
... north .3 west .3.... dead on
.3/.3
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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...ah, forgot about that.
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cheers
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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For the record,I said a South Florida hit not Miami.Thanks for all the pm's,But again I rather be wrong.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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My Weatherman on Fox just stated he has brand new models that just came in that he is going to show on TV in a few minutes. I am not sure what models he is talking about. I did not think there were any new models until the OOZ. I hope he is not talking about the 18Z, these models did not have the gulfstream data in them. So basically as so elequently put by the Admin of this Site, they were a little BLAH !!
I will update you on his new models, LOL (they can be so dramatic) after he gives his forecast.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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well guys cindy has spun off 25 tornados so far. ga and al got hit hard 
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Extra Fix???
URNT11 KNHC 080150
97779 01394 60194 77119 30500 21070 08088 /3049
RMK AF307 WX04A OB 06
RADAR CENTER FIX 19.7N 77.4W
CIRCULAR EYE 16NM DIAMETER, OPEN SW. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.
NAV ACCURACY 1 NM.
Now, this one makes sense..., lat. 19.4, long 77.1, moderate turbulence in the clouds. (Radar center fix must be an adjustment to the originally posted lat and long above).
305 dm, which is like 10000 ft. Winds at 210 degrees, 70 kts.
08088 Wait... spoke too fast on the darn temp again... 8oC at flight level with dew point 88oC at the surface... ok, I figured it out......
/3049.... again... 700 mb, surface pressure 049??? Still not getting this one, though...
Are these typos, or am I missing the boat again?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Thu Jul 07 2005 10:30 PM)
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