recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looking at this graphic from the regarding the probability of tropical storm force winds affecting a specific area:
Tropical Storm Probability Graphic
If I am reading this correctly, we in inland Central Florida are running upwards of a 40% chance of experiencing tropical-strom force winds. Doesn't that warrant some sort of inland watches/warnings being posted??
--Lou
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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it will get crazy here for the next two days...already is......
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
The ridge must be rebuilding...I'm hearing Al/Fl state line.......which means it's slipping back west...
and I live on a boat in Mobile Bay.....I guess I'll tie it down and hi-tail it....
cat 5 soon....
Yikes ! I was dismayed to hear the same this morning !! The local news channel here in Mobile keeps repeating that the models are moving west. I've been on the fence about leaving. We were fine in last year, but gee.... it was a lonnnnggg night !! The problem is, I can't get dumb hubby to leave.  We may just have to hunker down -- the hurricane kit is all ready !
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Well, I believe I guessed pretty accurately about the latest pressure fall in . The first vortex message had just been transmitted from recon:
URNT12 KNHC 081215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/11:59:00Z
B. 20 deg 55 min N
079 deg 32 min W
C. NA mb 2587 m
D. 70 kt
E. 126 deg 037 nm
F. 187 deg 136 kt
G. 100 deg 008 nm
H. 938 mb
I. 9 C/ 3054 m
J. 20 C/ 3051 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0804A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 136 KT E QUAD 11:56:40 Z
WIND SHIFT AT SURFACE ABOUT 1MIN PRIOR TO FLT LVL FIX
That equates to a central pressure of 27.70 with surface winds around 140 mph! This storm is deepening fairly rapidly.
--Lou
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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My biggest concern now is the slow down in forward speed.Also what will happen when he interacts with land.Very good looking storm.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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all those polk county plates you are seeing are probably on the cars of roofers.
They'll be back my way tonight throwin' bud bottles out the windows as they cruise up 27.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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no actually they are regular compact cars full of families and with kids and no they are not vacationeers. 
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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A special statement has just been issued by the :
Quote:
000
WTNT64 KNHC 081225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
--Lou
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Wow,that is more bad news.This is a heck of a storm.God help those people that will get hit by this monster.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Mountainous terrain will have an impact on two types of storms in particular: those with small inner cores and those that are relatively weak. The terrain causes all sorts of disruptions in the low-level flow, where the strongest part of a hurricane's circulation is found. This is above and beyond the normal effects of friction over flat land.
As noted in the revised first post, recon found a pressure of 938mb and flight level winds of 136kt in the southeast quadrant. They are on their way to the northeast quadrant and, given that data and the absolutely remarkable appearance on satellite imagery, I believe they may well find even stronger winds up there. We'll know by 11am, but is well on its way to potentially becoming a category 5 hurricane before making landfall once again in Cuba. The satellite appearance this morning is textbook -- though you may notice a slight elongation towards the north in later frames -- and the waters in that part of the basin just south of Cuba are the warmest and deepest in the entire Atlantic basin.
Needless to say, this storm is going to pack quite a fury for central Cuba later on today, and we can only hope that the trek over land -- and later, the trek to the north -- causes it to weaken and not maintain (to later strengthen over water).
To answer any potential follow-up question: no, I don't know of any category 5 hurricanes in July. I'm not saying this storm will become one, but it may be closer than we think and has the potential to do so in the next 6 hours or so before its rendezvous in Cuba.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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what was Andrews pressure?
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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it looks bad for some city...real bad. the hurricane is taking a path, and is gonna go over the skinniest part of Cuba...won't affect it much...it'll enter the GULF as a major hurricane....
ominous
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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938 mb! That is the lanfalling pressure of hurricane hazel in the 50's, and lower than 's (941). If he makes a landfall around this, would get into the top 15 list.
EDIT: Andrew's pressure was 922mb, I think.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Fri Jul 08 2005 08:44 AM)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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From 11pm to 8am the movement has been much more west than north(.6N/1.4W). There has never been a substantial, continued movement due north.
The ridge did appear to weaken some yesterday, but has since built in a little more. That should keep moving on a NW(with a bit more W) track.
Also, the conditions in place when came ashore aren't there this time around so a direct comparison between the two can't really be made.
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Check the Surf
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Intensity change is more than just warm waters -- for instance, Kate and a couple of other storms in 1985 were helped by the presence of mid-latitude troughs to their north and west, serving to enhance their outflow and provide a means for spinning up the low-level circulation. However, having warm surface water *and* having it warm to a sufficient depth (progressively deeper for a progressively stronger storm) is perhaps the most important of all of the external factors for intensity change.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
what was Andrews pressure?
922 mb for Andrew...If drops 4 mb he will equal Hugo's min pressure (934 mb)
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RJB
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I have a question concerning pressure in correlation to windspeed. On this very site, you guys include pressure on the Saffir-Simpson scale, however I have observed that certain systems can very greatly in there pressure, and yet have the same winds. For example, 's low pressure of 941 millibars seemed to be quite low for 150 mph winds. Variability to such an extreme degree seems odd.
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cheers
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Saffir simspon scale has no concept of pressure, those were listed only as a ballpark. The scale is purely windspeed.
So it can be off, a lot has to do with the surrounding pressure gradient as well.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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good morning.....been out about town and now am seeing plywood going up on houses and the gas stations with lines.
Wow pressure falls in such shallow water, i kinda thought that would happen as long a the center ran up off the coast. Just saw the outbound leg on recon that has 136mph at 20.9 79.4...also had on 114mph winds at 20.9 79.6.
hey does this mean winds north at 30?
OBS 07 SFC WND 36030
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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is this thing drunk lol its wobbling alot. too much rum i guess and maybe some cuban cigars.
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