News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40565 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:57 AM

Hunter, I noticed that also. Was very relieved when I woke up and saw the wind speed but it looks like Dennis is intensifying. Very cold cloudtops, and on the west side of the storm. The boards are leaning on the windows outside..if the trend continues I better get them up.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
got love the DOD elgin [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40566 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:58 AM

MESSAGE DATE: JUL 08 2005 18:34
KEVX RADAR HAS A PROBLEM WITH A MOTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. A
TEAM IS ENROUTE FROM THE ROC...HOPES ARE TO HAVE RADAR BACK UP BY
SOMETIME SATURDAY

well as many problems as the radar has had this year, i am not at all surprised the darn thing is down again. thats going to suck if they don't get a new "motor" in. For those who don't know, this is the eglin Air force base nexrad. Basically the only radar in panhandle.... others around include TLH, EOX, MOB

oh yeah side note
FTMTLH
Message Date: Jul 09 2005 01:30:00
THE KTLH WSR-88D WILL BE DOWN FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 HOURS TO FIX THE BROKEN AC. ÿÿ
NOUS62 KTAE 090433
FTMTLH
Message Date: Jul 09 2005 04:33:41
THE KTLH WSR-88D WILL REMAIN SHUT DOWN DUE TO AN A/C FAILURE. LOCAL CONTRACTOR
WILL ORDER PARTS. ETIC POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 09 2005 07:33 AM)


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ddolphinmom
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: berserkr]
      #40567 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:58 AM

I just wanted to make a comment. I have been coming here and reading what everyone is saying since last year. I have no weather knowledge other than what I see on the tv and here. Thank you to all of you that do have that knowledge. I feel much more comfortable knowing I can check with you and see what everyone is thinking. Oh and as for your comments beserk, did you see what Charley did in Punta Gorda??? Until the last minute that was supposed to be hit us. I am very thankful it didn't but also cautious when watching the "official" weather reports.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: ddolphinmom]
      #40569 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:03 AM

Dennis is strengthening...winds are up to 105 mph again according to TWC

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: pcola]
      #40571 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:06 AM


Sun City Center, Florida:

I woke up and looked at the radar to see I had about two minutes to get out and pick up my newspaper and have a quick smoke.

I see the storm has weakened, and that is GREAT! Also that we are more than likely out of the line of fire, that is GREAT too!

But, we don't need a direct hit to watch the trees dance crazy and see the rain blow horizontal. We are in for a storm, weak or not, and today will be one to go down in history.

Oooo Weeee! It is coming down out there, and a blowin' too!

--------------------
Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: pcola]
      #40572 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:07 AM

7am Advisory:
Quote:


At 7 am EDT...1100z...the eye of Hurricane Dennis was located near
latitude 24.1 north...longitude 83.2 west or about 95 miles
west-southwest of Key West Florida.

Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

A NOAA reconnaissance plane indicates that winds are beginning to
increase again and have reached 105 mph...with higher gusts. Dennis
is now a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some
re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.





Looks like we will once again have a major in just a few hours

--Lou


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: pcola]
      #40575 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:17 AM

I was hoping the eye might blow out over Cuba, but it didn't happen. If shear picks up toward the landfall it will keep it in Check, somewhat like Ivan was kept in check from sinking into Category 4 last year.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
From Reuters... [Re: MikeC]
      #40576 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:22 AM

On a somber note, the death toll from Dennis, according to Reuters, now stands at 32 (22 in Haiti, 10 in Cuba). I fear that Haiti total may rise substantially.

--Lou


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: recmod]
      #40577 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:23 AM

Looking at the water vapor GOM loop, the upper level trough over Texas is digging southward and moving eastward. Whether that will have any significant influence on Dennis is the question now. Could force a more northerly turn later today or tomorrow. Heads up, folks in the panhandle.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #40578 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:23 AM

vis sats are coming up.... good morning Dennis!
Many storms near center, not good

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_TPA_vis.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40579 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:25 AM

pressure down now too

URNT12 KNHC 091055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1013Z
B. 24 00 MIN N
83 DEG 06 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 015 DEG 61 KT
G. 302 DEG 20 NM
H. EXTRAP 969 MB
I. 12 C/ 3049 M
J. 16 C/ 3055 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/12/08
N. 12345/7
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 1204A Dennis OB 18
MAX FLT LVL WIND 69 KT NE QUAD AT 09/0912Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB.
SFMR MAX SFC WND 72 KT NE QUAD 0848Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40581 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:29 AM

All the models have come into agreement with only about a 80 difference on landfall, and all having the same track...unfortunate for me. But what an OUTSTANDING job by the NHC. We were worried about Cindy when the first tracks were coming out for Dennis and they have never changed. The panhandle is better prepared for this storm than any in history. SUPER, SUPER, SUPER job.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: pcola]
      #40583 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:34 AM

Quote:

But what an OUTSTANDING job by the NHC. We were worried about Cindy when the first tracks were coming out for Dennis and they have never changed. The panhandle is better prepared for this storm than any in history. SUPER, SUPER, SUPER job.


Yes, unfortunately for you and a lot of our forum friends in your area, the NHC *has* done a great job with this storm. God knows, they've had plenty of practice between last year and a busy start this year. Practice makes perfect, they say. I want to wish you and anyone affected by this storm, the best of luck and for you to be safe and suffer no harm.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 46
Loc: Wacissa, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #40584 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:36 AM

Mike, You're obviously right, but I'm surprised that Avila's 5 AM discussion isn't verifying. With the expansion of the wind field (the skater's arms are extended...), it would seem to be difficult for Dennis to get it's act back together.

Are there any examples of previous 'canes crossing Cuba (especially the long routes), and what happened after they emerged into the GOM?


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: pcola]
      #40585 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:36 AM

ok im now convinced i guess! for days i was saying it wasnt going too the panhandle but its not hitting us so im good, just a little breezy. but for the future does it look like floirida is sticking out like a sore thumb? and waht bout jersey or virginia does it look like they will have warm enough waters? it just looks too me that we are in a very bad pattern this year and maybe make history for the most storms in florida.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: nl]
      #40586 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:40 AM

here's some hurricane research image..... (this is not official)

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL042005_impact.png

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: nl]
      #40587 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:41 AM

Quote:

it just looks too me that we are in a very bad pattern this year and maybe make history for the most storms in florida.



I'd be happy if the season simply shut down for the rest of this year.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: MichaelA]
      #40589 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:50 AM

TD#5 might be there by Monday sometime in the Central Atlantic. Sigh.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #40590 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:52 AM

close-up vis

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/140.jpg

also pressure down again
2mb in 1-2hrs?

URNT12 KNHC 091140
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1111Z
B. 24 00 MIN N
83 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 70MB 2845 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 244 DEG 70 KT
G. 165 DEG 16 NM
H. 967 MB
I. 12 C/ 3076 M
J. 14 C/ 3092 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/12/08
N. 12345/7
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 1204A Dennis OB 18
MAX FLT LVL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD AT 09/1014Z
SFMR MAX SFC WND 80 KT SE QUAD


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 09 2005 07:54 AM)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #40591 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:53 AM



I hear that it will track in a more northerly direction, not threatening the Caribbean.

--------------------
cheers


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