FLHurricane.com: Northwest Again

3AM Update

During the past hour has again made a jog to the north northwest and the eye has lost some of its circular appearance. The hurricane may have started to feel the effect of southwesterly shear. These influences could alter both intensity and future track should they continue.

Original Post

Hurricane intensified rapidly Saturday evening and, in the process of doing so, he made a short jog to the north northwest - but it was just a jog. Latest recon of 131 knots at flight level translates to a Cat IV storm at the surface. During Sunday we'll probably see one or two more of these northward jogs as the hurricane goes through minor intensity changes - perhaps even associated with an eyewall replacement cycle. Eventually a steady turn to the north northwest seems likely as the storm moves around the periphery of the Atlantic ridge and nudges against a trough to the northwest. These minor jogs will make a precise landfall prediction a bit difficult, but the general area from Mobile to Ft Walton Beach seems most likely with landfall around 22Z.

Intensity can fluctuate, especially with an eyewall replacement cycle, but I'd expect a minimal Cat IV at landfall - about 135mph sustained. Even if the winds drop below that threshold, is almost certain to make landfall as a major hurricane - a most uncommon event in July. Keep in mind that folks who are within 50 miles east or west of the landfall location will experience hurricane force winds and that near the track of the storm, these hurricane force winds will extend inland well into southern Alabama as the storm itself heads inland.

If you are in the hurricane watch area, complete any final storm preparations tomorrow morning - and then get you and your loved ones out of harms way - a Category IV Hurricane is nothing to take chances with - the odds favor the storm.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 10 2005 03:10 AM)