Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Emily is a tropical cyclone... what do you mean by wave?
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 12 2005 08:12 PM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
interesting that 2001, 02, 03, and 04 the "I" name was retired
The must be having a fit with all these I-storms being retired.... I mean, it isn't exactly easy to keep coming up with I names!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Thanks for your hard work Mike. You're right... that Andrew satellite view is very eerie.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Convection starting to burst around 99L
Massive table breaking link shortened -- mikec
Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 12 2005 08:41 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Some of the reasons why I feel it's a strong wave or maybe Low,in addition to what I said before is that some of the models only show small low at the end of 120 hours or just rain. Nothing new here is has happen many times before, They will have Aircarft Recon there tomorrow lets see what happens.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looks like a depression to me. We're off to the races! 
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Michael
PWS
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I agree - that looks like a depression.
So...hypothetically in a day or two we could have our sixth named storm and our second hurricane (pushing second major hurricane). Once again I am asking why I booked a cruise in October.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hmmm.. emily sped up this morning and is still racing west. if that prescribed wnw bend doesn't start soon the thing will crash into trinidad. after its went out and all that was left was banding and beautiful outflow this morning, the came back this afternoon and the system looks solid again. old sailor's comment isn't off.. we have seen systems near or in the caribbean take off to the west and open up. unless it starts to deepen and gain latitude emily will more than likely be a central america threat and never get to the north. confidence on emily gets lower as it gets closer to trinidad.. if it speeds up anymore and doesn't get a couple degrees of latitude it will probably splatter and open up on the coast of venezuela in a day or two. then again if it deepens dramatically (which i think it should, but less so than before) it will turn wnw and get up near the official track).
the disturbance se of emily has slowed down, separated from the , lost most of its convection... while the one past the cv islands has sped up and is closing on it. it should act like a tarbaby and keep the cv low (99L) on a lower-latitude path for the meanwhile... that system should move mostly west for the next 2 days and slowly spin up... probably turn wnw as franklin after that. i don't buy the prog that hangs it near bermuda for a few days with deep upper trough digging behind it, then squeezes it through the ridge. franklin will accelerate westward when that upper trough digs in behind it, i'm fairly sure. the threat will be florida up to the carolinas.. with a w to wnw moving system at impact around july 22, i reckon.
ignoring the low in the boc.. see three other things of passing interest. westerly backing at the surface has again intruded into the sw caribbean... upper trough is moving w to the north, with diffluence and ridging building in aloft. too close to the coast, unlikely anything could spin up here. wave should come off africa tomorrow.. models not really seeing it, but it looks fairly impressive. surface trough with a good bit of convergence near 25/65 will have ridging build above it... models not really seeing anything out there either, though.
that's pretty much everything. two systems, one an invest which should develop before friday... and three low-interest trouble spots that need to persist.
HF 0150z13july
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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hope you booked your cruise for Alaska. Weather might be safer there.
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Thanks Mike ! I'll make them smaller next time 
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Environmental thermodynamics can mean a lot of things, but here, it's likely heat content (not a whole lot in the ocean, but improving with time) and midlevel moisture (which the storm has been embedded in since the African coast).
Really, I think the bigger question now becomes: will this storm hit South America? Unless the storm makes a quick jog to the north in a hurry, it might very well do so. Unfortunately, the Univ. of Wisconsin steering layer wind products are currently unavailable, but the storm has been moving (or rebuilding) further to the WSW for the past 6-12hr. It's going to be a close call as to whether or not it hits South America -- and if it does, it may not recover (or may take until the western Caribbean to do so, if it emerges off of land). Expect advisories for Trinidad to match those in Tobago at 11p with potentially advisories posted for the north coast of South America at that time as well.
Aside: T numbers on 99L are 1.0 now from SSD. Not anything to write home about, but it continues to become better organized. If this trend continues, it's got better than even odds of becoming TD 6 in the next day or two.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the non-enhanced WV loop of the Gulf/Carib/Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised to see Emily take a very southerly track into Central America providing she avoids South America. Of course, that is many days away and things could change, but that's the way it looks for now.
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Really, I think the bigger question now becomes: will this storm hit South America? Unless the storm makes a quick jog to the north in a hurry, it might very well do so. Unfortunately, the Univ. of Wisconsin steering layer wind products are currently unavailable, but the storm has been moving (or rebuilding) further to the WSW for the past 6-12hr. It's going to be a close call as to whether or not it hits South America -- and if it does, it may not recover (or may take until the western Caribbean to do so, if it emerges off of land). Expect advisories for Trinidad to match those in Tobago at 11p with potentially advisories posted for the north coast of South America at that time as well.
Good. I'm not the only one seeing that. 
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Michael
PWS
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hurricanesquall
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
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I dont understand if the ridge is so strong why do they have invest 99 heading north instead of west. 
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Yeah, Emily is really becoming better organized, but the governments of the South American countries had better wake up and issue some warnings, cause she's a headin' straight for them. Movement looks WSW. Down to around 10.5 and 55.0.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest Hovmoller diagrams, through 2330Z, show that Emily had a more intense look 24 hours ago.
Wave behind Emily, has a central convective complex and good banding in the SE Quadrant.
The most interesting of the three, is the wave leaving the Coast of Senegal. It looks like Emily did at her peak yesterday. And it's still over land. Banding/ outflow patterns from NE through SW.
Here's a link. Most current frame is at the bottom.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/m7hov1.gif
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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That looks really strong, but what will happen to it once it is over open water that is much cooler than the land temps it is over now? Actually, the SSTs look to be rather warm off the African coast.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Tue Jul 12 2005 09:47 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Most systems like that die out to some degree after some time over water. Whether or not it reforms is another story, but those convective complexes can often spin-up weak low-to-mid-level vortices that can track westward in the ocean and serve to focus convection later on down the line once conditions are more favorable, provided that the vortex survives. and Emily were somewhat like that...the wave behind Emily as well, if it develops. Only time will tell as to what happens with this one.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Only time will tell as to what happens with this one.
As always. 
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Michael
PWS
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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The guys who came up with this year's names must have had some fun while setting up the latter ones.....
I mean everytime I see Igor, I think of "Young Frankenstein" and if we get down to the W's I think we'll all be doing the Fred Flintstone imitation by screaming "Willllllllmaaaaa!!!!!!"
Just a little levity.....
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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