Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Sher that description is poetry.
Well it will really be interesting to have a Cayman Is observer posting on this site when Emily goes by!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw)
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 11:04 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Still 155 at 11 PM. 930 mb.
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Michael
PWS
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT., but 135kts is 155.5 mph... that doesn't count?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The remnants of are still wandering around the US, raining on everyone's parade.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The eye seems to be getting less distinct on the latest IR sat pics. EWRC happening?
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Michael
PWS
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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Terra --
I read somewhere (Steve Gregory, and I think someone here quoted him on this, too) that at this point they prefer to go by pressure, and 920 and below is the pressure to go to CAt 5
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
The eye seems to be getting less distinct on the latest IR sat pics. EWRC happening?
You can see the eye getting a little smaller very clearly on the water vapor loop.
It was 12nm this aft I believe, down to 10nm at the last recon? Not 100% sure on those numbers.
Well it if is still 10nm it may have a little way to go, maybe down to 8nm, before an ? But that seems to be the speculation in the air all 'round anyway.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Can't be... that would be against the SS scale... since it is a windspeed scale. The pressure numbers are estimates....
Now, feel free to prove me wrong if you remember where that info was posted.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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From Steve Gregory...
The RECON so far found a max wind of 149kts, but it is likely, that 160kt max flight level winds
are occurring. Typically, 920mb is the threshold / benchmark standard, besides wind data, used
in the Atlantic basin to Categorize a storm as having CAT 5 intensity -- the highest Category.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
It is confusing...SS is a wind scale, so I was with you, waiting for the upgrade, until I read this...
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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You are correct in that the intensity scale (Category) is based on wind. But, one minor correction: the conversion factor from knots to mph is 1.15, i.e., 135kts times 1.15 equals 155.25mph.
Cheers,
ED
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155.5 mph... that doesn't count?
Intensity a function of both pressure and wind speed - pressure is officially 930. Also deepening has stopped, evening has come, and an might be starting. It is more probable that intensity will now fluctuate downward until after the reorg that will come after an (if one occurs). That might be happening tomorrow when the storm will be going over warm waters again and have the heat from the sun. More likely to see a Cat 5 tomorrow afternoon or evening rather than tonight.
One thing though, it seems that in these warm tropical waters it is possible to have just as much strengthening in the nighttime as in the daytime. So maybe time of day is not such a factor at this type of location.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Actually, I cheated and used a table.... How about this conversion factor (that came up when I looked for the conversion table I used):
1 knots = 1.15077945 mph
That's a lot of significant figures!!! So, that would mean... 155.35522575
Seriously though, I think the 1.15 is plenty of sig figs... I can't imagine a conversion factor having 9!
Thanks for the correction. I always seem to get busted when I'm being lazy.... I guess that should tell me something!
Hey, it's Saturday. Laziness permitted~danielw
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 11:27 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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From Discussion 25:
"EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED 931 MB.
THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 135 KT. T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM ... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA."
Makes a lot of sense. Also looks like knew they'd have to provide detailed logic as to why not upgrade to a Cat 5.
Also notice they are now mentioning the possibility Emily may not hit Yucatan peninsula at all.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 11:31 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Cayman Islands blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CaymanMike/show.html
Also can listen live to his radio station (only if IE is your browser):
http://www.rooster101.ky/
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Center fix-Vortex should be out shortly.
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 096 Knots (110.4 MPH) From 281°
Minimum Pressure: 939 Millibars (27.727 Inches)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: E15/16/8
Looks like an is starting.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 11:44 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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And just the right time for an too...good for the Cayman Is, and a good time for me to go to bed!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Also can listen live to his radio station (only if IE is your browser):
http://www.rooster101.ky/
Works jut fine with Safari 2.0 or Firefox under Mac OS X 10.4.1 too...
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That was three rights. And four rights, go around the block!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Just got this info from a friend.
Neil Frank from KHOU said
Chance for Emily to take a right turn. Key to where she will go is the florida high. Low over Texas is anticipated to weaken & Florida high moves. But if high stalls and doesn't move to the west, emily will take a more northerly track. Wednesday's local forecast is a little uncertain. There is an outside chance the storm could come our way
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