Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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or at least the energy will...
we'll have action in the Gulf in a few days....
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MikeG
Unregistered
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here's a look from the west at franklin (some-what side view)
GOES 11
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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5pm DIscussion is up.
Quote:
However...the ... UKMET...and the Canadian
models now only take Franklin as far north as 30n latitude in 36-48
hours...and then leave the mid-level circulation behind while the
low-level center moves quickly northeastward ahead of a cold front.
While this scenario is possible...it would mean that Franklin would
cease to exist as a tropical cyclone.
Also: hey, 100 posts.
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[witty phrase here]
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Franklin got his work cut out for him now....he's getting pinched,
Found some info on Emily ER-2 flight from NASA
3d view of Emily from Doppler radar on ER-2 a week ago
Emily view
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Thanks Phil. Yes, I have that site. Thanks for giving it to me. I guess I am more interested in that wave than in Franklin since I live in Texas.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Rick, probably have action in the GOM late tomorrow or early on Sunday... early model runs have it going into Mexico again near where Emily went inland... expect it to stay on a basically wnw track... if so, it won't be over water all that terribly long so it shouldn't be that strong a storm... unless it were to deviate from the model track and take a more northerly component, in which it would have time to work with the warm GOM waters and be over water a longer time... unless Frankie boy takes the loop and back tracks to Florida, he and "Gert" might not be too much to write about... buy hey, its not even August yet and we've done had 5 GOM storms (maybe 6 by the end of the weekend), and two Cat 4s, one a borderline Cat 5... and this is still the "preseason" .... all I can say is WOW
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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That is very interesting; thank you.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Don'tcha hate it when the pages get too wide?
Got 3 e-mails/PM's or so on Joe Bastardi's
updated landfall intensity forecast for July. I
thought his 2004 forecast was insane, but this
one outdoes what we've already seen. I
think Phil callled 2004 the Season from Hell
or something like that. Well 2005, if this verifies,
will set a new standard for heat.
What I got from the different e-mails is that
he's looking for a major hurricane to hit
southern Florida; a hurricane for the N.E.
US Coast, a hurricane for Canada (possibly
in conjunction with the NE Coast storm),
another hurricane for Texas, a major for the
Carolinas, and a substantial threat to the
north central Gulf Coast east of the LA zone.
I don't have accupro, so I can't verify this in its
entirety, but this is what I could piece together
between the information I got. I also know that
he expects continued close-in development so
we will probably have a few more tropical
storm hits among the hurricanes he's calling for.
Hey, if this stuff verifies, and his analogs are
big for 1995, 1954 and 1933, that would be a
major victory for seasonal landfall predictions.
His earlier forecast called for the most effects
on the North Central Gulf, and between
Arlene, Cindy and , that was a good call.
We'll see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Joe called Emily when many on here were saying he was wishcasting it. He was off by maybe 100 miles from over a week out. And he's been doing that for the past few years. Also, how do you get the emails from Mr. Bastardi on his intensity forecasts?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I don't get anything from him anymore.
I used to get some e-mails from him
when I subscribed. But I'm boycotting
Accuweather due to their support of S.768
and Senator Santorum. The tropical update
video is free on Yahoo. But I have some
friends around the web who send me info
because they know I used to subscribe
and would pass on pertinent tidbits.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Jane219ga
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Valrico, FL
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You have to pay $$$ for JB's "pro secret stuff".
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ebel
Unregistered
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Post deleted by Moderator
Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Jul 22 2005 08:31 PM)
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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thanks for sharing that with us.
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cheers
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>You have to pay $$$ for JB's "pro secret stuff".
Yeah. If you want the column and the meterological map discussion, you have to pay for Accuweather pro. It was an okay deal for $14.95/month last couple of seasons, but it's high at $24.95.
>>JB is nothing but a wind bag his score has been low for the last 5 yrs.
That's kind of lame ebel. That you'd post it under an unregistered alias is even worse. I have my issues with Bastardi, the , HankFrank, Derek Ortt and the rest of 'em from time to time, but I can do it in a way that doesn't try to cut them down. If you could back up the "score being low for 5 years" with something of substance, your argument might hold some merit. But he's only been doing the landfall score since 2003. So whatever I guess. He can be a windbag, I ain't going to argue with that. But your post and its circumstances really doesn't dignify anything. Pffff
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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CaneTracker -- thing is, for everyone he gets right, you can pinpoint another (Dennis, taking it to New Orleans practically up until landfall) that he got wrong. I'm not trying to incite another Accuweather war, but Bastardi's wrong about as often as he is right. He goes out there on a limb and nails a few before others...but gets burned in a similar fashion. One's personal preference, I guess. I'm personally not too keen on his style, but I do have to give him credit where it is due...like with the initial call on Franklin (as echoed by HF) -- I was too slow and bearish on it, while the bullish nature of the tropics won out this time.
Something you all may find interesting: Derek Ortt, the guy Steve mentioned in his previous post and a forecaster over at Storm2k, is only a recently-graduated undergrad at UMiami. He does pretty well for not having had a full background, which means he should do even better once he gets the tropical & overall meteorological background under him in the next year or two; his specialty right now is the model he and John Cangelosi run over at their site. I personally feel that they probably go a little far in recommending watches and warnings, but that again is just my personal preference...otherwise they do a pretty good job. Just an interesting tidbit.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I do give JB credit for his intensity forecast at the beginning of the season. His forecast showed high risk for the north central gulf, and I think that has verified well.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>CaneTracker -- thing is, for everyone he gets right, you can pinpoint another (Dennis, taking it to New Orleans practically up until landfall) that he got wrong. I'm not trying to incite another Accuweather war, but Bastardi's wrong about as often as he is right. He goes out there on a limb and nails a few before others...but gets burned in a similar fashion. One's personal preference, I guess
I agree with that assessment Clark. Where he is outstanding is with the pattern recognition stuff. He's not as good with the end-game solutions. The call to the Mouth wasn't off by much considering it was about 7 days out. But he's too slow and stubborn to back off sometimes which causes him to lose credibility. For me, he carries some weight, but I still follow the for life & limb.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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On a different note, the disco by Forecaster Stewart was excellent. Franklin will likely remain a tropical storm, especially with the large area of disturbed weather associated with the same ULL. Also, dry air has wraped around the westward side of the system once again caused by the outflow boundary of the SW caribbean disturbance. Motion has been almost due north for the past couple hours, and will become more easterly as time progresses.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Best to consider Joe Bastardi or any other divergent meteorologist as a second opinion, that helps give you a broader view of the whole picture. Tis’ not good to be so dogmatic as rely on only one source with something as complex as the weather. Imagine what would happen if we only used the for everything … oh, wait.
Edited by Lysis (Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That's something known as consensus...but there are certain time periods when certain models are peferred. The happens to have it's times, somtimes more then others, much like forecasters.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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