NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Navy site has the new invest 96L up this a.m.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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said a few days ago as soon as this thing gets a little farther it will turn and go bub bye.
All models now have it going fishing.Bub Bye now to wait on the next one.
Lets hope you are correct ralph...obviously you have more meterological experience than the rest of us.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 12 2005 08:58 AM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Models for AL962005:
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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I don't know raphfl, looks like the visible loops show heading in a westerly direction now. She may well be feeling the effects of the ridging. Watch the area to the SSE of the convection. Cheers!!
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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See the same thing, although she's still so disorganized that it's hard to tell where the center is.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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96L will be another interesting one to watch, I never like initial model runs, so I'm going to hold off on it. Thanks for the map though, Jonathan.
I'm going to be gone until Monday, so hopefully nothing too bad happens while I'm gone. Ed will be around, and probably John. Keep watching Irene, folks.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Quote:
Models for AL962005:
What is AL962005? That's not Irene ...?
'shana
eta: Oh ... 96L. OK. New Invest.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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At first I thought west also, but looking at it again it looks like the buildup of convection on the south and west side are giving the illusion of a more westerly jog. But, they, (I think it was the ) did say that some erratic movement could take place.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Shana, that the new invest (wave). 96L
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
Edited by Floridacane (Fri Aug 12 2005 08:38 AM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Agree Ed. The first few frames of the Vis SAT seem to show the LLC of Irene toward the south end of deep convection. It still appears that the MLC is northeast of the LLC, although overall appearance is better than yesterday. I also noticed during the last frames that she appears to be moving more westerly than NW and perhaps slowing a little. It's really difficult to tell - we need the recon out there for some information.
I find it curious now that the latest 00Z runs of UKMET, , & all dissipate the storm as the ridge strongly builds over and to the north of Irene. Now, only the shows the storm surviving and moving N-NW, but then stalling it off New England at the end of 5 days.
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RJB
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Dumb question..is the ridge what is showing is light blue to the west of Irene?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Yeah Ron I saw that also. A bit disturbing 'cause the models are banking on an environment that's dry with an overbearing ridge. Let's see what things unfold today.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Looking at the WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
Here's my question:
Is the "High" ridge on the side where the water vapor is moving W to E. Or is it on the North side pushing in from the W. Is Irene expected to bust through what looks like a water vapor bridge from FL out to Bermuda?
Sorry if this is a newbee question.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I think I just asked the same question in a very round about way. 
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J.C.
Unregistered
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12z models on front page are out. They have shown a little more of a west track than earlier but yet they have it approaching the coast of NC then begining to take a sharp right to the NE. at 5am however had the storm at least 180 milies east of Morehead City NC but yet the strike probability was at 7%. I believe that even with all the info from models thay are still not sure. Does anyone think this thing could hit land south of Hatteras before hooking right and out to sea. My best guess is still a fish problem. Any thoughts?
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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The mentioned a left turn but not this early. Interesting storm huh?
THE FORECAST
TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Ed and Beach:
The ridge is centered just to the east of Bermuda with a bridge over to another center off of the east coast of Florida. The storm likely will not split the ridge betwen the 2 high centers because its strong and forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. The western axis is also forecast to slowly drift north to a latitude of Daytona Beach by Sunday. What does this mean? In the short term, probably a slowing of the storm and perhaps more of a W-NW or W motion. Some models show an eroding of the western side of the Bermuda High in 72 hours and this is what is forecasting to move the storm N-NW.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html
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RJB
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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What way Irene goes in the end all comes down to if storm goes through the ridge it about to hit today and when the Cold Front from Canada goes through New Jersey.
If the Ridge pushes Irene south of it, NC and SC will be on the map. If not then the cold front will be the story.
The Cold Front was suppose to go through tonight but the High off of the coast is keeping it away from going through till Monday, and by then Irene is going to be really really close.
If the Cold front stals for a day or more, Irene will hit someone...Just don't know where. NC? Virgina? Maryland/Delware? New Jersey? It's a matter of how Irene survives hitting the ridge
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Just watching the post by Joe Bastardi at Accuweather, and he insists that Irene will have an impact on the East Coast. Did anyone catch his remarks. I'm looking at all the features, and assume that New Jersey/Delmarva locations could actually be the ones who could get smacked with this. Obviously assuming what the RECON flight relays back to the .
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Funny thing is only a couple models show her ever breaking 70w
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200509_model.html
The way she's looks to be moving can she miss it?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
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