trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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sorry to ask again, but no one replied, but i need to make a decision on my plans for tomorrow ..
given current location and her direction at this moment, does anyone think miami dade county will issue hurricane warnings.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
Edited by trinibaje (Wed Aug 24 2005 06:57 PM)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Yeah, Max Mayfield said on NBC 6 to prepare for a Cat. 1 and hope that it stays a TS. Shutters are on the side of the house waiting (ugh i hope i don't have to put them up!) oh btw, i would say that this is the core of the storm beginning to form as we speak, please tell me im wrong:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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wait until 11pm tonight...the advisory at 5pm said warnings *may* be necessary later tonight.
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tolling
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Yeah, it's eerily peaceful here. No ambience of electric drills yet.
Dunno if people even know what's going on.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
wait until 11pm tonight...the advisory at 5pm said warnings *may* be necessary later tonight.
thanks.. unfortunately can't wait until then, so i might as well prepare like this building won't open tomorrow.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
heres alink for watchs and warnings
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCVAT2+shtml/242033.shtml
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Noticed yesterday the web site for the NOAA sat images seems to have been upgraded and there are some changes to the way the web page loads.
Just noticed the radar option to overlay the sat image. I'm wondering, is this new, or did I just not notice this option before? I really like how you can compare what is showing in the various sat images with the long-range radar.
Also it looks like by late tonight we'll be able to see pretty close to the center of the TS on long range radar.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
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I live in Jupiter, Palm Beach County, and they just came on TV-12 and said that they screwed up regarding where the eye was. He said they will have the new tracking at 8 p.m., and that it is directly east of West Palm Beach.
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looks like is trying to develop a around the presumed center. There is also something resembling an eye on the long-range radar out of Miami. This could become a hurricane sooner rather than later if these features persist, though the is still pretty small and there is still some dry air lurking around that could disrupt things.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Justin in Miami - I think you found the vortmax on the eastern edge of this loop, not the broader clear area, but the (small tight circulation) just below Great Abaco with an apparent NW motion. It could be vorticity spinning off as the system develops. I've been wrong before. Here is your link again:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Here is the latest vortex message. Still a pretty weak system for something with a closed eye:
000
URNT12 KNHC 242318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/23:05:30Z
B. 25 deg 59 min N
077 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 215 deg 016 nm
F. 273 deg 035 kt
G. 216 deg 019 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 21 C/ 246 m
J. 24 C/ 246 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0312A OB 17
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 215 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
RAGGED EYEWALL
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Thank You Very Much! My kids are saying, "it's not coming anywhere near us!". They don't understand that the straight line is just the center and there are hundreds of miles of bad weather around the center. They remember all too well , and Jeanne, so now I can show them where the centers of those storms were and how much fun we had here from them. Now they get it!
Thanks again!
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I know it's very early, but what is your best guess right now, based on the weather patterns, for us here in Tallahassee? 
Edit: lots of rain, probably enough to allow us to set a new all-time record for August (we're only about 4" behind after today), and some wind. If it comes in on the track, expect widespread power outages and for the coast to be devestated. We'll have to see if that pans out and make changes if it doesn't look like it will, though. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Wed Aug 24 2005 08:37 PM)
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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By my radar and IR Satellite satellite guesstimates, I place the center directly under the rapidly deepening red ball due east of WPB moving NW. Also, it appears to be the tight spin and not the broader spin showing on radar.
Satellite... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Radar... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
Edited by Jekyhe904 (Wed Aug 24 2005 07:32 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
This is a great loop out of Washington State. I think. It is a water vapor and it really shows off the center as well as anything I have seen. I don't have any markers or I would draw circles. It looks to me if it were to continue with no jogs, that Lake O. would have a visitor.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Storm is moving west per Bryan Norcross quoting the 8pm. Due east of me!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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8pm out and movement now WNW; the only change is pressure down to 1001mb and the TS Warning for the central Bahamas has been discontinued
now time for my official forecast: between Stuart and Ft. Lauderdale, 90mph
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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this system is moving much faster than anticipated. Doesnt it seem like they all do that?
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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It appears that is the center considering all the storms are rotating around it now..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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not quite due west per the radar loops IMO but certainly wnw or even just north of due west.... easly to follow center right now... not NW for sure.. interesting to see if it goes wsw down the road as some models hint at due to the building of the ridge... I think one thing that will be critical is just how far west this thing gets out in the GOM.... could be the difference in an AL landfall or PCB landfall.... some still don't think its going into the GOM... I think it will and I think the GDFL might has a good bead on this cyclone, especially if it continues to develop.... stay tuned.... plenty of crow in the freezer...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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